AMD 결국 청산절차를 밟을까

뒷떨어진 공정, 설계, 성능, 가격 뭐하나 좋은게 없는 상태로 너무 오래동안 지속되어 왔네요. 작년처럼 Windows XP지원종료에 따른 PC교체수요도 없고, 심지어 새로나올 Windows 10은 저사양 PC에서도 잘 돌아갈거라는 비보가. 예상대로 실적도 안좋고 전망도 안좋게 발표했네요. 장중에 20%가까이 급락하다 15%급락으로 마무리. Market Cap 이 $1.63B로 정말 껌값. 중국업체도 아직 입질이 없는걸 보면 아무것도 남은게 없는가 하는 생각도 듭니다.

AMD는 이번년에 인수되지 못하면 결국 청산절차로 들어가야할것 같습니다. MS가 미친척하고 사주면 얼마나 좋을까요. MS의 자본력으로 밀어붙이면 죽어가던 AMD도 살수 있을것 같은데요.

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Intel is sucking the life out of AMD

By Matt Krantz July 7, 2015 12:10 pm

AP

Remember the days when Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was a viable rival to Intel (INTC)? Those days are long gone.

Forget about the fact for now shares of computer chipmaker AMD are down 38 cents, or 15%, to $2.09. Forget even the fast that 38 cents is 15% of the stock's value. And forget that the company warned last night that quarterly results would be weaker than expected.

You can blame soft PC sales. And that's partly true – and it's what AMD blamed saying weaker-than-expected consumer PC demand is hurting revenue and profitability.

But the real evidence of AMD's swift decline is clear in the massive dropoff compared with industry titan Intel, which continues to pull ahead. AMD's revenue has been headed in the wrong direction. AMD's revenue of $5.5 billion last year is essentially flat with 2012 and down 14% from 2010. And while Intel hasn't been exactly growing like wildfire, it's been steadily increasing revenue.

Chart source: S&P Capital IQ

But the gap between AMD and Intel gets even more vast when you compare them directly to one another. Back in 1990 – when AMD was offering legitimate competition to Intel, it had revenue that was more than a quarter of Intel's. That ratio climbed back to about 15% on AMD's resurgence in the mid 2000s.

Now, AMD's revenue is 9.9% of Intel's.

Chart source: S&P Capital IQ via Microsoft Excel

Things aren't looking much better going forward, according to a note to clients from Christopher Roland at FBR. The lure to buy a new PC with the latest version of Windows isn't the case – sinceMicrosoft (MSFT) has changed its strategy. Typically, new versions of Windows give PC makers a boost as consumers bought new machines – but that's not likely to be the case with Windows 10 since Microsoft is writing the software to run perfectly well on existing PCs. Windows 10 is also free upgrade to current Windows users. AMD is expected to lose an adjusted 37 cents a share this year.

"We do not think the market yet realizes the impact of Microsoft's new free Win10 upgrade strategy on PC units. Historically, consumers have overwhelmingly upgraded their PC operating systems through the purchase of new PC hardware. While this was our original outlook for the Win10 upgrade cycle, we recently reduced our 2H15 and 2016 PC outlook as Microsoft is offering consumers a free Win10 cloud upgrade for all Win 7 and 8.1 owners," Rolland says.

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ENLARGE

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices fell sharply after the chip maker estimated second-quarter revenue and gross margins below its earlier projections. PHOTO: ASHLEY PON/BLOOMBERG NEWS

The pain isn't over for Advanced Micro Devices.

The chip maker also known as AMD tumbled on Tuesday. The shares slid sharply after the company announced that second-quarter revenue and gross margins would fall short of its earlier projections. The shortfall was blamed on weak PC sales, along with a one-time charge for pushing more of its chip production to newer manufacturing technologies.

The fact that AMD has fallen short of Wall Street earnings targets in three of the preceding four quarters should have damped the surprise from Monday's announcement. But the company had issued a relatively bullish forecast for the year just two months earlier, calling for revenue in the year's second half to jump 15% from the first.

That projection—underpinned in part by hopes that PC sales will get a boost from the coming launch of Microsoft's Windows 10—looked aggressive then. It seems downright dicey now.

The result is that AMD may have to make more painful adjustments to its outlook when it reports full second-quarter results next week. And in the longer term, the company's potential remains hazy.

While AMD's position with gaming consoles remains strong, the PC market still accounts for about half of total revenue. AMD is seeking opportunities in areas such as data centers and connected devices. But it faces tough competition there from much larger rivals. Data centers are of particular interest to Intel, which spent more on R&D and marketing last quarter than AMD is expected to generate in total revenue this year.