오른손의 좋은 세상만들기

페이스북 아마존은 예상보더 더 좋은 성적을 발표해서 주가도 많이 떴습니다. 주요 IT기업들 요약한 자료가 있어서 옮겨옴.

Facebook/Amazon had great quarter.

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Amazon

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Apple

Largest absolute revenue growth ever – fiscal 2015 revenue of $234B, an increase of 28% and $5B over 2014.

Made significant inroads into emerging markets - generated over $79B in revenue and growing 63% despite foreign exchange rate headwinds.

Over 300M devices sold over the past year: 231 million iPhones, 55 million iPads and 21 million Macs. Setting new unit records and increasing global market share for both iPhone and Mac.

Ended the year with a record breaking September quarter including sales of 48M iPhones (up 22% year-over-year), strong momentum for iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus across the quarter and a new launch record for iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus near the end of the quarter.

iPhone ASP was $670, an increase of $67 year-over-year, due to more favorable mix and in spite of unfavorable foreign exchange impacts.

In other areas: launched Apple Watch; started taking orders for new Apple TV; exceeded 100B cumulative downloads from the App Store; added Apple Pay in the United States and the United Kingdom; Apple Music now in over a 100 countries; more than 1,600 health kit solutions now available; 50 car models now support CarPlay; 40M users of Apple News; completed 15 acquisitions; 

China: revenue in Greater China nearly doubled year-over-year (up 99%); iPhone sales up 120% in mainland China; 1 million developer program members in China; goal is to increase number of Apple stores in China from 25 to 40 by middle of next year; Apple Music and iTunes, movies and iBooks available in China in the coming quarter.

Apple provided the following guidance for its fiscal 2016 first quarter:

• revenue between $75.5 billion and $77.5 billion

• gross margin between 39 percent and 40 percent

• operating expenses between $6.3 billion and $6.4 billion

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Facebook

Mobile is continuing to drive growth:  1.55B monthly users across all access points - 1.39B use it on mobile devices, with more than 1B on Android; 894M mobile daily active users (DAUs):

Fastest growing interface is Facebook Lite - app for people on low bandwidth connections

More than 8B daily video views on FB; expect video to be the most engaging online content over the next few years - continuing to innovate here.

Introduced "M", a digital assistant that will use AI to help people complete tasks

Internet.org rolled out to 29 countries, more than 15M people online

Revealed Aquila - first aircraft designed to beam internet into communities down from the sky

Plan to ship the Oculus Rift headset early next year. Gear VR (with Samsung) will release this holiday season.  Will continue to invest in immersive experiences and expect this market to be similar to smartphones and PCs as the next big computing device

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Google

Announced new public holding company - Alphabet - on August 10. New operating structure is being introduced in phases. Expect to disclose Google as a single segment and all other Alphabet businesses combined as "Other Bets" beginning in 4Q15. Other Bets will include Access & Energy, Nest, Life Sciences, investments and incubation efforts (i.e. driverless cars)

Expect CapEx to increase next year in Google and Other Bets, in particular Access & Energy

Headcount increased by 16% YoY and 5% QoQ, majority are engineers and product managers

Strong mobile momentum in emerging markets - India is #2 country for mobile search behind the US

Investments in machine learning and artificial intelligence is a priority

Remain focused on "solving the biggest problems and solving them at scale and that present sizable potential revenue opportunities"

Rolling out Android Marshmellow, best-performing release yet. 1.4B 30-day active Android users around the world

New device & platform announcements: Nexus 6P, Nexus 5X, Pixel C - first Android tablet built N2N by Google (full size keyboard with portable tablet); Creating new platforms for newer areas of computing such as Android Wear; Android Auto, the IoT platform, and Chromecast update

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Intel

Higher than expected revenue was driven by higher notebook and desktop ASPs. Ramping 6th generation core microprocessor (Skylake). 

Remain on track to improve mobile profitability by $800M; 75% of that goal has already been recognized

Data center, non-volatile memory, and IoT groups all posted double-digit growth YoY. Memory grew 20% YoY

Higher 14nm costs than expected; ramped Ireland factory too early with first wafters being expensive

Sales in China down slightly, more of a consumer mix than enterprise - across all different segments

Believe they undershipped in notebooks and desktops compared to industry TAM

For full 2015, memory is expected to grow at fast pace; Data center and IoT will exhibit strong growth, but the annual growth rate for all three will be lower than expected due to weaker macroeconomic growth

7360 next gen modem will ship by end of this year; product announcements next year; first of SoFIA LTEs next year; SoFIA w/ Intel 14nm 2H of next year.

Believe they can keep up long term mid-teen level growth for data center group

FY16 should see new products - Silicon Photonics, FPGAs with Altera - increasing data center footprint

FY16 ramping 3D NAND process - will give performance and cost advantage

Reiterated longer term phone strategy is around modems

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NVidia

Third quarter revenue was a record $1.305 billion, up 7% from a year earlier, up 13% sequentially and substantially above our outlook of $1.18 billion. 

• GPU revenue was $1.11 billion, up 12% from a year earlier

• Tegra processor revenue was $129 million, down 23% from a year earlier

Strategy remains focused on creating platforms for gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive.

• Gaming revenue rose 44% year-on-year to $761 million

• Professional visualization (Quadro) revenue increased 8% sequentially to $190 million, a decline of 8% year-over-year

• Datacenter revenue rose 13% sequentially to $82 million

• Automotive revenue rose 51% year-on-year to a record $79 million

o Collaborations with over 50 companies that are developing self-driving car technologies, using NVIDIA DRIVE PX

Forward Looking

• 4Q 2016 revenue to be $1.3 billion, plus or minus 2%. 

• GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins expected to be 56.7% and 57%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points

• GAAP operating expenses expected to be approximately $503 million. 

• Non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $445 million.

For fiscal 2016, we expect non-GAAP operating expenses excluding litigation costs to be approximately flat with fiscal 2015. Litigation costs are anticipated to be in the range of $70 million to $80 million as we defend our intellectual property.

*GAAP outlook excludes restructuring changes of $25-35 million with wind down of Icera in 4Q 2016

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Broadcom

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Samsung

News:

• Announced US $10 billion share buyback over the next few quarters

• Overall revenue growth of 6% from previous quarter mainly driven by semiconductor and display.

Semiconductor Business

• System LSI supplying 14 nm products

• Memory: Continuation of process migration and improved product mix

Mobile Business

• Slowdown of smartphone demand, shipment growth led by launch of new models

• Slight increase in revenue, profitability declined

• Lower ASP due to increased sales in mid- to low-end products

Forward-looking

Fourth quarter earnings expected to decline due to changes in exchange rate

Semiconductor Business

• Expect earnings to improve driven by 14 nm foundry supply growth

• Uncertainties expected in supply side, especially on leading-edge technology such as 20 nm DRAM

Mobile

• Expect smartphone and tablet growth due to strong seasonality 

• Intensifying competition due to market growth slowdown may cause difficulties

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Skyworks

• Revenue of $880.8 million, up 23% from the prior year. 

• Operating income of $335.2 million, up 42% versus last year.

• Exited quarter with over $1 billion cash in hand and no debt.

• Full year revenue grew 42% to $3.26 billion. 

Acquisition of PMC

• $11.60/share – expected to close in 1H 2016

Business segments

• Power amplifiers represented 20% of revenue

• Integrated mobile systems was 59% 

o Up 84% year-over-year during the quarter.

• Broad markets was 22%

Fiscal 2016 business outlook:

• Revenue between $925 million and $930 million, up 5.3% sequentially and 15% year-over-year.

• New organic midterm model driven by:

o Served market opportunity growing at a mid-teens pace for the foreseeable future 

o Targeting continued gross margin expansion driven by latest generation products, growth of integrated mobile systems in broad markets, scale benefits associated with increased volume, continuing efficiency gains from filter business, and ongoing efforts to optimize cycle times, yields and supply chain efficiencies.

o Ongoing R&D investments in systems, engineering and field applications teams.

Within six to eight quarters, targeting organic annualized EPS of $8 at a revenue run rate of around $4.5 billion with gross margins in the 53% range. 

Longer term, based on internal margin initiatives, business heading towards 55% gross margins.

주식을 하다보면 거저 줏어먹을수 있는 기회가 상당히 많습니다. 5-10%는 거저먹겠다 하는 경우. 물론 어느 경우에도 100%확률은 없습니다. 개인이 모든 정보를 control하지 못하는데 100%일 수가 없지요. (100%라면 전제산을 몰방해야지요) 실제로 확률은 따져보면 일반적인 경우보다 쬐금 높은 경우겠지만 느낌상 줘도 못먹는 경우처럼 느껴집니다.

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2015년 10월 26일 장 마감후.

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Apple은 내일 장마감후 실적을 발표할 예정입니다. 물론 예상대로 더 많은 아이폰에 더 높은 수익을 기록할것으로 예측됩니다. 주가는 작년 같은 동기대비 거의 그대로입니다. 물론 중국경제때문에 전망이 안좋지요. 하지만 애플이 가지고 있는 제품의 위치를 보면 불황이 오더라도 크게 흔들릴 위치가 아니지요. 어닝은 서프라이즈일텐데 어떤 전망을 내놓일지 궁금하긴합니다. 오늘 폭락한거 생각하면 정말 거저입니다.

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브로드컴. 아바고(Avago)가 M&A를 발표했고 주당 $54.50 현금 또는 싱가폴에 설립된 Avago Holding의 주식을 $0.44주를 받을 수 있습니다. 오늘 주가로 $51.46. 내년 1월에 마무리 될 예정이니 거저 먹는것이지요. 딜이 주식만 있었다면 계산을 복잡하게 해야하지만 cash로 받는 옵션이 있습니다. 오늘종가로 딱 5%입니다. 2-3개월보유해서 5%를 벌수 있다면 년수익률로 20%되는 초대형 대박입니다. 위험의 거의 없지요.

최근 주가 그래프에서 보듯이 8월말에 46불도 깨졌습니다. 저는 인수가 확정된 주식으로 쉽게 돈버는 방법을 상당히 좋아합니다.

만약에 위험이 있다면 deal이 결국 깨지는 경우인데, 독점적 지위가 아니기 때문에 그럴일은 거의 없어보입니다.

Our fair value is only slightly above the expected blended average of two payment options available to Broadcom shareholders--either $54.50 per Broadcom share in cash or 0.4378 shares of Avago, which, at Avago’s closing price on Oct. 26 of $123.61, would represent an equity value of $54.12. We still anticipate that the merger of Avago and Broadcom will go through as planned, but we should note that our fair value for Broadcom was $50 per share before the merger announcement and would likely remain the same if the deal were to fall apart.

수정: 아바고가 $17B cash+ $20B stock으로 딜을 한건데, 주주들에게 option을 주면 이 비율을 어떻게 강제할지가 qustion이네요.

Avago will pay $17 billion in cash and $20 billion in stock, the companies said in a statement.

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인텔이 결국 알테라를 사기로 했네요. 한달전 오퍼는 주당 $54이었는데 Altera 주주들이 거부했지요. 돈은 더 높히지 않은것 같은데 인텔이 어떻게 설득했는지 그것이 궁금하네요. 이번에 타결되며 공개된 조건은 100% cash로 지급하는 현금박치기입니다. 이전에는 100% 현금이 아니었을거라 추측해봅니다.

인텔이 FPGA를 왜 이렇게 비싼 가격에 사려고 하는지 이유를 한국 언론이 잘 보도를 못하고 있는것 같네요.

해외 언론에서는 주요 이유중에 하나로 Data Center를 꼽고 있습니다. 서버 비지니스가 마진을 높아 상당하 고수익 사업인데, 지금까지는 98% 점유율로 완전 독점입니다. 하지만 요즘 ARM 기반의 서버도 속속 등장하고 있고 경쟁이 격화되고 있어서 마진을 지킬만한 다른 방안이 알테라라고 하고 있습니다. 서버 시스템이 FPGA가 중요한 역할을 하는건 것은데 정확한 이유는 모르겠네요. 서버시장은 한번 사면 PC보다 교체주기가 길기때문에 중간에 reconfiguration을 할 확률이 높다고 합니다. 일반 system은 그럴수가 없지요. 그럴 필요도 없구요. 그때 FPGA가 상당히 중요합니다. 이게 들어가고 안들어가고가 가격차이를 크게 만들고 이 가격이 큰 마진으로 나온다고 합니다.

그리고 Altera가 Intel FAB을 사용하면서 20nm, 14nm공정에 이윤을 계속 유지시켜 줄거라고 합니다. 이것도 크네요. Intel 칩만 찍어서야 100% 이용할수가 없겠지요.

Risk factor로는 FPGA는 자일링스가 1위인데, Altera고객들이 자이링스로 이탈할 확률이 있다고 합니다. 당연하겠지요. 인텔믿고 들어올수도 있겠지만 전자가 더 강할거라 합니다. 인텔이 이런 위기를 극복하고 좀더 잘해서 1위를 하고싶어하겠네요.

Altera(ALTR)

• Founded: 1983

• HQ: California; Ownership: Public

• Mkt Cap: $14.71B (6/1/15)

• Revenue: $1.93B

Market Impact, Implications and Risks

• The acquisition strengthens Intel’s position in the server market by offering a complementary programmable chip to speed up processing time.

• Intel extends it market reach into telecom and wireless based on Altera’s existing presence in those markets, which account for 44% of Altera’s revenue.

• This could benefit Altera rival’s like Xilinx if some existing Altera customers become low priority customers for Intel.

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Acquiring Altera may help Intel defend and extend its most profitable business: supplying server chips used in data centers. While sales of semiconductors for PCs are declining as more consumers rely on tablets and smartphones to get online, the data centers needed to churn out information and services for those mobile devices are driving orders for higher-end Intel processors and shoring up profitability.

Data Centers

Sales at Intel’s data-center division rose 19 percent in the first quarter as Internet companies such as Google Inc. and Facebook Inc. built out their server operations.

As a part of Intel, Altera will continue to support designs that couple its chips with others designed on ARM Holdings Plc technology. Companies such as Qualcomm Inc. are preparing to use that to try to break Intel’s dominance in data-center chips, where it has more than 98 percent of the market.

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이전 아바고-브로드컴 딜

NXP(NXPI)가 Freescale을 샀었군요.$16.7B, 2006년 Freescale이 private equity firms에 인수된 금액 바로  다음금액이었네요. 이 private 투자회사는 돈을 남겨먹었는지 궁금하네요. 산것을 그대로 팔았다면 완전히 망했을텐데 그 사이에 배당도 그렇고 좀 쪼개서 팔았었다면 대박이었을수도 있겠습니다.

참고로 구글이 모토롤라를 2012년에 $13B에 샀었습니다. 가격이 맞느냐 얘기가 많았지만 구글입장에서는 껌값이었지요.