알코아(AA) 어닝시즌 개막

벌써 내일 어닝발표가 있네요. 회사의 바램과는 다르게 알루미늄가격과 100% 싱크로율을 보여주는 알코아라서 어닝도 좋지않고 그리스나 중국저성장으로 전망도 좋지 못할것 같습니다.

작년에 좋은 수익률을 돌려줘서 좋아하는 주식인데... 년초까지 꿈의 주식이었는데 방향을 획돌렸네요.언제가 될지 모르겠지만 또 살것 같네요. 중국시장이 바닥을 치고 올라올때와 알루미늄 가격을 잘 지켜봐야 할듯.

예상대로 최근에 알루미늄 가격이 더 많이 떨어졌고, 앞으로도 더 떨어질 확률이 높을것 같네요.

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Alcoa Inc. Kicks Off Earnings Season: 2 Trades for AA Stock

AA stock bears smell blood in the water, but are they too late to the game?

Alcoa Inc. (AA) will kick off the unofficial start to third-quarter earnings season after the close of trading on Wednesday. The aluminum giant has been pressured this year by a strong U.S. dollar and slowing demand, forcing the company to trim high cost operations, sell low value assets, and focus on lower-cost production.

Despite these moves, AA stock bears smell blood in the water, but are they too late to the game?

By the numbers, Wall Street is looking for fiscal second-quarter earnings of 23 cents per share from Alcoa — up 28% from year-ago levels.  Revenue is seen arriving down 1% at $5.8 billion. However, whispers are swirling that Alcoa will miss earnings targets, with EarningsWhisper.com reporting a whisper number of just 21 cents.

Bearish sentiment has begun to take hold in the analyst community for AA stock. The last several moves within the community have been downgrades, resulting in eight “hold” or worse ratings and 10 “buys,” according to data from Thomson/First Call.  Meanwhile, the 12-month price target currently rests at $16 per share.

Pessimism is also swelling among short sellers. Specifically, the number of AA shares sold short surged by 23% in the most recent reporting period. As a result, some 72.5 million shares of AA stock, or nearly 6% of the stock’s total float, are now sold short.

But, judging from recent options activity, there may be a lack of conviction from the short-selling crowd.  Typically, short sellers will buy short-term call options as a way to hedge their bets, especially ahead of events such as earnings reports.

Along these lines, AA stock’s July/August put/call open interest ratio has fallen to a reading of 0.41, with calls more than doubling puts among options set to expire within the next two months. Taking a closer look at just July options, the put/call open interest ratio falls even further, arriving at 0.38.

 Overall, weekly Jul 10 series implieds are pricing in a potential post-earnings move of about 5% for AA stock. This places the upper bound at $11.54, while the lower bound lies at $10.46.  Historically, implieds seem a bit on the low side, meaning that AA option prices may be low at the moment.

Technically speaking, AA stock is trading deep in short-term oversold territory. The stock is currently perched just above its 2014 lows, which currently correspond with potential support from AA’s 200-week moving average. Despite the overwhelming negativity levied against AA, there is a possibility of a surprise post-earnings rally.

2 Trades for AA Stock

Call Spread: Pessimism toward an underperforming stock is largely par for the course, and AA stock has earned much of its negative reputation on the Street.  However, the recent selloff has placed AA in oversold territory, hinting that the stock’s recent losses may be overdone.  As such, there is the possibility of a snap-back rally for AA following this week’s earnings report, especially if there are any positive nuggets to be gleaned.

As such, traders wanting to take a chance on an AA rally might want to consider a Jul $11/$12 bull call spread.  At last check, this spread was offered at 31 cents, or $31 per pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $11.31, while a maximum profit of 69 cents, or $69 per pair of contracts, is possible if AA stock closes at or above $12 when July options expire.

Straddle: Alternately, traders with a higher risk tolerance might want to take advantage of this high volatility situation and enter a straddle. A straddle involves the simultaneous purchase of an at-the-money call and an at-the-money put in an attempt to take advantage of a greater than expected move from the underlying stock.

By employing a straddle on AA stock, you are likely betting that the company is going to either handily beat earnings expectations, resulting in a reversal of sentiment and a rush in buying activity, or confirm the Street’s bearish bias, resulting in a flood of sell-on-the-news activity. At last check, the AA Jul 11 straddle was offered at 68 cents, or $68 per pair of contracts. Breakeven for this trade lies at $11.68 on the upside and at $10.32 on the downside.

http://investorplace.com/2015/07/alcoa-inc-kicks-off-earnings-season-2-trades-aa-stock/#.VZzD9DGJugs

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Aluminum Pricing

Aluminum has diverse applications in industry. It is an important input in the packaging, aerospace, automotive, construction, commercial transportation, power generation, capital goods, and consumer durables industries. Thus, demand for aluminum is broadly correlated with industrial growth. Economic weakness in Europe and slowing Chinese growth have contributed to the weakness in aluminum demand, and consequently prices, over the last few quarters. ^[1] China, the world’s largest consumer of aluminum, is expected to witness a slowdown in GDP growth to 6.8% and 6.3% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, from 7.4% in 2014. ^[2]

On the supply side, production capacity has not been reduced corresponding to the weakness in demand over the last few quarters. Persistently high aluminum inventory levels relative to demand have kept LME aluminum prices depressed. This inventory was built up partially as a result of aluminum being tied up in financing deals, which were made possible due to low interest rates. ^[3] Despite inventories being at a record highs, market forces failed to rationalize supply through the shutdown of smelting capacity. Though global aluminum majors like Alcoa and Rusal did make significant smelting capacity cuts, the same was not true of Chinese companies. This was primarily due to state intervention in the form of provisions of subsidies or renegotiated power contracts to smelters, which serve as a disincentive to cut production. China accounts for around half of the world’s aluminum production, and the expansion in production by Chinese producers has more than made up for capacity cuts by global majors. ^[4] This oversupply situation is expected to keep aluminum prices depressed.

As a result of the fall in LME prices, regional aluminum prices in China are trading below the costs of production of a majority of Chinese domestic smelters. ^[5] However, Chinese aluminum producers were boosted by a recent decision of the Chinese government to provide tax breaks and subsidized power to domestic aluminum smelters. ^[6] In addition, the Chinese government also reduced export taxes on Chinese exports of the metal earlier in the year. ^[7] A combination of these factors is likely to lead to an increase in Chinese production and exports, which could further worsen the gap between supply and demand, resulting in weak global aluminum prices. This is reflected in the trajectory of London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices so far this year.

LME aluminum prices averaged roughly $1,800 per ton over the course of the second quarter in 2014. These prices averaged close to $1,750 per ton in Q2 2015. ^[8]  Lower aluminum prices are likely to weigh on the company’s results, particularly those of the Primary Aluminum and Alumina business segments.

http://www.trefis.com/stock/aa/articles/303936/alcoa-q2-earnings-preview-productivity-improvements-to-offset-impact-of-weak-aluminum-pricing/2015-07-06

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Aluminum Bear Market Piles Pressure on World’s Biggest Smelters

Record Supply

The trend echoes a similar one in steel in the second half of last year, when Chinese exports of excess supplies sent prices tumbling 30 percent. The nation’s aluminum industry quadrupled in the past decade with smelters churning out record amounts of the metal used in everything from packaging to car bumpers.

Aluminum for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.7 percent on Tuesday to $1,666 a metric ton, entering a bear market. The metal price extended the decline to $1,631.50 on Wednesday. Prices may trade closer to $1,500 a ton by the end of the year, the lowest since 2009, amid record inventories worldwide, according to Colin Hamilton, London-based head of commodities research at Macquarie.

About 20 percent of smelters outside China are losing money at current prices, according to Standard Chartered Plc.

Supply Forecast

Global supplies will exceed demand by 800,000 tons this year, with the surplus tripling from 2014, according to Societe Generale SA. While global aluminum demand is poised to rise by the most among the six main industrial metals, Chinese production is already up 16 percent this year and expected to grow further, according to Macquarie.

Stockpiles of the metal are also easier to obtain after the London Metal Exchange took steps to cut lengthy wait times at its warehouse locations. The backlogs that stretched to almost two years had boosted surcharges added to the exchange benchmark to a record last year, helping producers’ profits.

Moscow-based Rusal, the world’s largest producer, forecasts that China will increase exports of partly processed aluminum by 20 percent, the company said June 25. It will decide whether to cut capacity in the third quarter. Shares of Rusal have dropped 40 percent in Hong Kong trading this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/aluminum-bear-market-piles-pressure-on-world-s-biggest-smelters

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Aluminum Glut Dents Alcoa’s Prospects

Alcoa shareholders should pay close attention to what happens in Beijing.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/aluminum-glut-dents-alcoas-prospects-1436287094