예상은 예상이지만, 2030년에도 미국이 경제규모로 1위를 유지할수 있을거라고 하네요. 중간에 중국이 두번은 경제위기를 맞아야 가능할것 같은데요. 그것을 고려해 넣었을지도.

한국은 경제 10위권은 이제 어려워진건가요? 2030년이면 국민연금도 도갈되고, 노인령화가 극에 달할것 같네요.

These will be the world's 20 largest economies in 2030

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/worlds-20-largest-economies-2030-140103749.html

The 20 Fastest-Growing Economies This Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-25/the-20-fastest-growing-economies-this-year

Crude Oil이 완전 투기장이네요. 정치와 종교가 mix되서 완전 개판이 되어가고 있네요. 하루가 멀다하고 오른다 내린다, 올랐다 내렸다, 재고가 많다 적다, 공급이 많다 적다로 일희일비하는 모습입니다. 여름 휴가까지는 지금 수준보다 오르기 어렵다고 판단하고 있고, 여름이 지나면 이란에서 나오는 공급초과가 시장을 더 자극할수도 있을것 같습니다. 미국 이자율 올라 달러가 강세로 간다는 것도 Crude Oil이 내려갈 요인이지요.

-----------------------------------

월스트리트 저널에 보면 Oil 뉴스만 모아놓은 곳이 있는데 제목만 봐도 가관입니다. 올랐다 내렸다, 장난치냐.

http://www.wsj.com/news/types/oil-markets

• 5 HOURS AGO

  Oil Slides as Supplies Soar

   163

  Oil prices tumbled on Wednesday to their biggest loss in two months after data showed the largest weekly increase in domestic crude supplies in 14 years.

  

• APRIL 7, 2015

  U.S. Oil Prices Rise to 2015 High

   162

  The benchmark U.S. oil price jumped to a 2015 high on Tuesday on fresh signs that the nation's production is on the brink of a decline.

  

• APRIL 7, 2015

  Saudi Oil Output to Stay at About 10 Million Barrels a Day: Minister

  Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi said Tuesday that the kingdom's crude production will continue around 10 million barrels per day, close to a record high, signalling that his country is determined to ride out the price slide without making any output cut.

• APRIL 2, 2015

  Oil Falls on Iran Agreement

  Oil prices slid Thursday after Iran and six world powers agreed on the parameters of a nuclear deal, which could result in the lifting of sanctions on Tehran's crude-oil exports.

  

• APRIL 2, 2015

  U.S. Oil Rig Count Declines Again

  The U.S. oil-rig count fell by 11 to 802 in the latest week, according to Baker Hughes Inc., marking the 17th-straight week of declines.

• APRIL 1, 2015

  U.S. Oil Prices Jump 5.2%

  The benchmark U.S. oil price jumped to its largest one-day gain in nearly two months on Wednesday as traders seized on a sign that U.S. crude production could be nearing a peak.

  

• MARCH 31, 2015

  Battered Oil Shows Signs of Life

  As the U.S. runs low on space for oil storage, production growth is expected to slow. That could bring some much-needed support for prices after a slide.

  

• MARCH 27, 2015

  Oil Prices Fall Sharply

  U.S. oil prices dropped Friday, logging a near-6% decline in late-afternoon trading.

  

산업사회가 고도화 될수록, IT처럼 빠르게 바뀌는 사업이 커지면 커질수록, 사회가 사람살기 더 힘들면 힘들수록, 아이를 낳아 키워야지 하는 마음은 없어질수 밖에 없지요.

젋은이(20-64세) 100명당 노인인구(65세 이상) 통계로는 일본이 젤 위에있는데 우리도 최근 통계에서는 만만치 않은걸로 봐서 가파르게 일본 그래프를 쫒아갈거라고 예상되네요.

유럽도 오랫동안 고민해 왔는데 덴마크에서는 성교육을 어떻게 해서든지 애 많이 낳게하기에 초점을 마춰서 성과를 거두고 있다고 합니다. 애국심도 고취해주고. 우선 결혼하고 출산, 양육하는 과정에서 얼마나 사회가 잘 support해주는지만 잘 설명해도 좋은 성과를 거둘수 있겠지요.

젊은이들에게 좋은 일자리를 많이 만들어주고, 저녁이 있는 삶을 준다면 애 안낳기 힘들지 않나요. 옆집에 개를 키워도 키워도 너무 얘뻐서 나도 키우고 싶은게 사람 마음인데 지 자식을 안좋아할 사람이 어딨겠어요.

한국 같은곳에서는 결혼안하고 애 안낳는데 너무 정상적이지요. 작년 세월호 참사와 1년이 지난 오늘까지 진행된것만 보더라도, 국가라는 것이 애들 키우는 부모만 죄인만들고요.

Students at a Copenhagen school during a discussion of sex led by a group seeking to raise Denmark's birth rate.

Sex Education in Europe Turns to Urging More Births

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/09/business/international/sex-education-in-europe-turns-to-urging-more-births.html?rref=homepage&module=ArrowsNav&contentCollection=Middle%20East&action=click&region=FixedRight&pgtype=article

이번에 1000년에 한번올까말까하는 가뭄이라고 하네요. 눈많이 왔으면 세인이 데리고 스키장 더 많이 갔을텐데, 강수량이 없으니 여려 비지니스가 문을 닫게 생겼네요.

사막이 더 넓어지고 있는데 캘리포니아도 그럴것 계속 그럴것 같네요. 그런데 아직 과학자들이 기후가 어떻게 변할지 잘 모르고 있는것 같더라고요. 확률적으로만 짐작할뿐. 샌디에고는 강수량이 늘거란 예측도 있고, 시에틀은 맑은 날이 많아져서 살기 좋아질거란 예측도 본것같은데...

캘리포니아에서 가정용으로 쓰는 물이 10%밖에 안된다는데, 10%에 허리띠를 졸라매는 조치는 딴나라당 스타일인데요. 농업기업은 살려야 한다 이건가요. 이해는 되지만 열받는건 어쩔수 없네요. 캘리포니아에서 수영장, 멋진정원과 잔디밭은 정말 사치지요. 물값이 계속 오르고 있고 앞으로 계속 오를거라 예상한다면 더더욱 그렇고요. 아주 비싼집은 수영장이 있는게 좋지만 일반 사람이 살 만한 크기의 집에서 수영장이 있는 집은 없는집에 비해서 가격이 크게 차이가 안나더라고요.

담수화 기술이 아직은 비용이 많이 들어 부족한것 같네요. 99%물은 바닷물일텐데, 먼 미래에 인류는 물 보면서 목말라 죽어갈지도. 담수화 기술이 발달하겠지요.

캘리포니아 농업 산업은 앞으로 미래가 있는걸까요? 거대한 땅에서 농사라도 안지으면 이 큰 땅은 어디에 쓸수 있을까요.

쉐일산업은 미국내 비중으로 봐도 그리 크지않으니 별로 큰 영향은 없을듯. 캘리포니아의 growth에 영향은 미치겠지만.

ENLARGE

Low water levels are visible at the Los Capitancillos Recharge Ponds in San Jose, California on April 3, 2015. PHOTO: JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

ENLARGE

좋은 도표가 그래픽이 아래에 있네요. 그림도 잘그려.

California's Long Challenge with Drought

Week of From Dec. 27, 2011 to March 31, 2015

http://graphics.wsj.com/californias-long-challenge-with-drought/

Sources: National Drought Mitigation Center; U.S. Department of Agriculture; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association

--------------------

캘리포니아 가뭄의 심각성과 불길한 징조: 대소비 시대의 종말(?)

http://www.clien.net/cs2/bbs/board.php?bo_table=lecture&wr_id=266440

클리앙에 Santacroce님이 아래 기사를 읽고 작성했다고 하는데 대단하신 분이시군요.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/05/us/california-drought-tests-history-of-endless-growth.html?ref=topics

사진도 멋지게 찍었네요. 요즘 유행하는 드론으로 찍었나보죠. 예전에는 이런 각도로 찍으려면 헬기를 동원했었어야 했을텐데.

엄청 좋은 interactive graph가 있네요. 샌디에고는 영향이 미미한 편이네요.

How Water Cuts Could Affect Every Community in California

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/04/01/us/water-use-in-california.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=mini-moth&region=top-stories-below&WT.nav=top-stories-below

여자 앵커 순위가 재밌었는데…

3. Robin Roberts, Good Morning America $14 million

8. Rachel Maddow, The Rachel Maddow Show $7 million

11. Maria Bartiromo, Fox Business $6 million

12. Katie Couric, Yahoo! News $6 million

13. Megyn Kelly, The Kelly File $6 million

17. Erin Burnett, OutFront $3 million

18. Nancy Grace, Nancy Grace $3 million

----------------

http://ceoworld.biz/2014/08/27/24-highest-paid-hosts-news-business-top-paid-news-anchors

Who makes the most money for keeping the public informed and entertained – 24 Highest-paid hosts in the news business: Top- Paid News Anchors?

1. Matt Lauer, Today $22–25 million

2. Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor $18 million

3. Robin Roberts, Good Morning America $14 million

4. Brian Williams, NBC Nightly News $13 million

5. Anderson Cooper, Anderson Cooper 360 $11 million

6. Shepard Smith, Shepard Smith Reporting $10 million

7. George Stephanopoulos, GMA , This Week $9 million

8. Rachel Maddow, The Rachel Maddow Show $7 million

9. Scott Pelley, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes $7 million

10. Bret Baier, Special Report With Bret Baier $6 million

11. Maria Bartiromo, Fox Business $6 million

12. Katie Couric, Yahoo! News $6 million

13. Megyn Kelly, The Kelly File $6 million

14. David Muir, ABC World News, 20/20 $5 million

15. David Gregory, Meet the Press $4 million

16. Lawrence O'Donnell, The Last Word $4 million

17. Erin Burnett, OutFront $3 million

18. Nancy Grace, Nancy Grace $3 million

19. Steve Kroft, 60 Minutes $3 million

20. Willie Geist, Today, Morning Joe $2.5 million

21. Natalie Morales, Today $2.5 million

22. Byron Pitts, ABC News $1.2 million

23. Bill Weir, CNN $750,000

24. Ronan Farrow, Ronan Farrow Daily $650,000

Top 10 부자 미국 토크쇼 진행자

여자 뉴스 Anchor의 연봉만 알려주던 링크도 있었는데… 못찾겠다.

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http://talkshows.about.com/od/talkshowfun/tp/Top-10-Richest-Talk-Show-Hosts.htm

Oprah Winfrey. Paul Redmond/WireImage/Getty Images

1.  Oprah Winfrey: $2.7 billion

Technically, Oprah is no longer a daytime talk show host. But as an executive producer on a number of popular daytime shows, CEO of her own TV network, TheOprah Winfrey Network, primetime talk show host and so much more, it's hard not to just include her in this list anyway. After all, the woman makes more than most small countries. Her net worth tops $2.7 billion and Oprah counts more than $315 million a year in income. More »

David Letterman, host of the Late Show, at the 2011 Comedy Awards. Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images

2.  David Letterman: $400 million

The king of late night, David Letterman, host of the Late Show with David Letterman takes a back seat to Oprah. Letterman has a net worth of $400 million and makes $50 million a year. Letterman's cash comes from his hosting gig, which brings in about $14 million a year, as well as income from his production company, Worldwide Pants, and real estate investments. More »

Jay Leno, 'Tonight Show' talk show host, greets fans. Toby Canham/Getty Images

3.  Jay Leno: $250 million

Though he often lands at No. 1 in ratings,Tonight Show host Jay Leno sits behind Letterman with a net worth of $250 million and an annual salary of about $25 million. Leno collects his extra cash through an extensive line-up of stand-up shows across the country. More »

4.  Dr. Phil McGraw: $200 million

A Winfrey protégé, in a way, Dr. Phil McGraw, host of The Dr. Phil Show, is No. 4 on our list. Dr. Phil has a net worth of $200 million, including his $50 million annual salary. That's not all from his show, of course, but a series of popular branded products, a private practice and so much more. More »

Adam Larkey/AMERICAN BROADCASTING COMPANIES, INC

5.  Barbara Walters: $150 million

Barbara Walters is the host and creator ofThe View. Her work on screen with the women of The View, as well as her work with ABC News and Walters work in production, sees the world class journalist with a net worth of $150 million. More »

Talk show host Ellen DeGeneres accepts the People's Choice Award for Favorite Talk Show Host. Getty Images/Michael Caulfield

6.  Ellen DeGeneres: $45 million

Here's our friend Ellen DeGeneres, host of The Ellen DeGeneres Show, the true inheritor of Oprah Winfrey's audience. But even though she may be the next darling of daytime, she hasn't quite matched Oprah's net worth. Nope, Ellen only makes about $45 million a year. Stand-up and other investments have her counting a $105 million net worth. More »

Talk show host Jon Stewart of 'The Daily Show.'.Getty Images/Brendan Hoffman

7.  Jon Stewart: $80 million

Fake news has been good to Jon Stewart. More than a decade as host of The Daily Show produces an $80 million net worth for Stewart, who makes about $16 million a year. More »

8.  Conan O'Brien: $75 million

Once considered the future of late nightfor NBC, one of our favorite talk show hosts ever, Conan O'Brien, lands on basic cable with a clever, fresh show and an estimated net worth of $75 million dollars. He makes $12 million a year on TBS, but boosts his net worth through a robust production company that regularly produces critically acclaimed television product. More »

Talk show host Rachael Ray accepts her 2009 Daytime Emmy Award. Frazer Harrison/Getty Images

9.  Rachael Ray: $60 million

Possibly a surprise for some that daytime talk show host Rachael Ray appears. Ray is fascinating in that her show continues to stay strong in the ratings while Ray remains mostly under the radar as a daytime personality. Never mind the Emmys and early notoriety. Still, her food empire - cookware, cookbooks, cooking shows - has given her a $60 million net worth. More »

CBS News anchor Katie Couric. Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images

10.  Katie Couric: $55 million

Daytime's next big thing, Katie Couric, host of Katie, starts her talk show career with a net worth of $55 million and an annual paycheck around $15 million.Katie could give Ellen a run for the money. But for now, in terms of net worth, 

EIA에서 미국에서 생산된 Crude oil이 어떻게 기차(rail)을 통해 이동하는지 잘 그림을 그렸네요. Pipeline을 통한 이동도 예전에 통계를 봤는데.

미국은 통계와 data의 천국이네요.

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http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20592#tabs_Slider-5

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/04/02/an-eye-popping-gif-of-how-oil-moves-around-america/?wpisrc=nl_wnkpm&wpmm=1

미국 고용 3월 report가 완전 쇼크 수준입니다. 예상치에 크게 믿돌면서 미국 경제의 빨간불로 받아들여지네요. 다행히 좋은 뉴스는 이자율 빨리 못올릴것 같다는 예상이 되겠죠. 저유가가 장기화 되면서 미국의 에너지 섹터의 잡들이 영향을 받기 시작하는것 같습니다. 이번년 저유가를 계속 예상해야 할텐데, 미국 경제 지표가 버텨줄지 궁금합니다. 못버텨주면 어떻게 대응할지도 궁금해지네요.

이렇게 data를 잘 정리하고 예쁘게 그림 그리는 사람들 상줘야 합니다.

Bureau of Labor Statistics - 한국말로 노동 통계청 정도 되나요. 

http://www.bls.gov/

http://graphics.wsj.com/job-market-tracker/

-----------------------

The U.S. has added 3.1 million jobs over the 12 months ended in March, which was down slightly from 3.2 million jobs for the period that ended in February.

The unemployment rate in March remained unchanged at 5.5%, while a broader gauge of underemployment that includes workers who have part-time jobs but would like full-time work ticked down to 10.9%, the lowest level since August 2008.

The unemployment rate fell further for college graduates, dropping to 2.5%. For high school dropouts, unemployment actually worsened last month, climbing to 8.6% from 8.4%.

The share of Americans participating in the labor force ticked down to 62.7%, matching the lowest level in 36 years. The share of Americans with jobs was unchanged at 59.3%.

A big part of the decline in the overall U.S. labor force owes to the aging of the U.S. population and the growing share of retirees. But even among so-called prime-age workers between 25 and 54 years old, labor-force participation and employment to population have dropped.

Average hourly earnings ticked up in March from February, but average weekly earnings posted the smallest annual gain since last June.

The number of workers who have been out of their jobs for more than six months has continued to decline but remains above the prerecession level.

The share of the unemployed who have been jobless for more than half a year fell below 30% for the first time since June 2009. The rate had been hovering around 31% for the last six months. This was the first big drop in long-term unemployment since August.

The median duration of unemployment dropped to 12.2 weeks from 13.1 weeks. This is still much higher than normal but less than half as long as during the worst of the recession.

Nearly all of the jobs added since the recession ended in June 2009 have been full-time positions.

-----------------------

-----------------------

U.S. employers sharply slowed their hiring in March to the weakest pace in more than a year, the latest sign that the economy stumbled in the early months of 2015. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 126,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate, derived from a separate survey of households, was unchanged at 5.5%.

• TREND

  197,000

  The economy added an average 197,000 jobs in the first three months of 2015, the weakest pace since early 2014. Last year, the U.S. added an average 260,000 jobs a month. The first quarter of 2015 looks a lot like the first quarter of 2014, when job growth averaged 193,000. The big question is whether the latest slowdown represents broader weakness or a temporary lull. Last year's weak first quarter was followed by a strong rebound.

•  

• REVISIONS

  -69,000

  Updated figures showed job growth was weaker earlier this year than previously estimated, with the economy adding 69,000 fewer jobs in January and February than previously estimated. Payrolls grew 201,000 in January instead of the previously reported 239,000 gain. Payrolls increased 264,000 in February, down from the initially reported addition of 295,000.

• WAGES

  2.1%

  Workers appear to be getting slightly bigger paychecks. Average hourly earnings of private-sector workers rose 7 cents in March from February, to $24.86. But growth is still modest historically. Over the past year, wages have grown 2.1%.

• LABOR-FORCE PARTICIPATION

  62.7%

  The labor force shrank last month, a sign of underlying weakness. The labor-force participation rate—or the share of working-age Americans with jobs or searching—fell to 62.7% from February's 62.8%. The labor force lost 96,000 workers last month. The participation rate is near the lowest level since the late 1970s.

• MINING AND LOGGING

  -11,000

  The mining and logging industry shed 11,000 jobs in March and has lost a total of 30,000 positions this year. That reflects weakness in the energy industry, suffering under a collapse in oil prices. But many service-providing sectors added jobs last month, including retail, health care and restaurants.

   

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