'경제이야기/Stock' 카테고리의 글 목록 (7 Page)

'경제이야기/Stock'에 해당되는 글 77건

2015.05.31 Nuance, NUAN 추천
2015.05.31 IRobot, IRBT
2015.05.13 숫자분석의 달인 quantifiedalpha.com
2015.03.28 19 stocks to buy now - CNNMoney
2015.03.24 Should You Consider Nuance Communications?
2015.03.23 2015년 유가상승 가능성을 이용한 투자 idea
2015.03.21 AA Alcoa 추천
2015.03.19 Investing for income 2014 August
2015.03.18 Crude oil 상승/하락에 베팅하기
2015.03.17 F How Ford And GM Compare In China

Nuance, NUAN 추천

Nuance = 뉴앙스, 누앙스, 뉘앙스

Apple의 Siri가 처음 나온것은 2011년 10월 Iphone 4S에서 부터였습니다.

Google Android의 경우 2010년 Goole I/O에서 voice recognition을 데모했었습니다. 2013년에 Google Now를 선보였고요.

2013년에 놀러갔다가 시리를 정말 잘쓰는 사람을 보고 앞으로 세상의 input은 keyboard가 아니라 voice라는 깨닮음을 얻고 Nuance를 살펴보다가 투자를 단행했습니다. 애플이랑 결별할지도 모른다는 rumor가 있었고, 주요 IT업체였던 Apple, Google, Microsoft 세 회사가 자체 voice recognition solution이 있었다는 것도 risk factor였는데 아이칸이 투자했다는 이야기에 좀더 서두르게 되서 한동한 손실에 시달렸어야 했지요. 물타기를 최저가 근처에서 많이해서 2015년 투자수익률을 NUAN가 주도하고 있습니다. 아직도 가치를 더 높게 보는 이유가

1. 매출과 순이익의 반이 Healthcare쪽에서 나오고 성장률이 상당히 높습니다.

2. IT쪽 매출과 발전이 상당히 느렸는데 smart automotive(자동차)쪽에 성장이 상당히 빠른것 같습니다. 1-2년 성장이 빠를것 같습니다. Wearable이 늘어날수록 voice 쪽 솔루션이 계속 필요합니다.

3. 라이센스 비용이 좀 비싸서 누군가 라이센스를 내는것보다 사는것이 낫다는 판단을 할 가능성이 높습니다. 헬스케어와 voice recognition solution 둘다 필요한 회사가 가장 적합하겠지요.

4. 아직까지 돈을 못벌고 있는데 현금흐름도 좋아지고 이득도 늘고있어 주가가 폭등할 좋은 모멤텀이 쌓이고 있습니다.

Nuance의 4가지 분야는, 아래와 같고 전세계적으로 유명한 고객사를 가지고 있습니다.

Healthcare

Mobile & Consumer

Enterprise

Imaging

-------------------------

	Valuation						Dividend	Financial ratios		Margins		Profile	Income statement
	Price	Earnings per share	P/E ratio	Price sales ratio	Mkt Cap	Enterprise value	Dividend	Current ratio	Total debt to assets	Net profit margin	Operating margin	Employees	Revenue	Net income	EBITDA
NUAN	16.87	-0.38		2.78	5.29B	6,899.17	0	1.81	37.92	-2.97	5.57	14,000	475.06	-14.1	89.52
MSFT	46.86	2.41	19.47	4.35	379.08B	315,789.50	0.31	2.91	18.04	22.94	29.91	128,000	21,729.00	4,985.00	9,390.00
HPQ	33.39	2.5	13.36	0.59	60.69B	67,397.46	0	1.13	20.77	3.97	5.62	302,000	25,453.00	1,011.00	2,977.00
CSCO	29.31	1.73	16.99	3.06	149.07B	115,662.40	0.21	2.98	19.78	20.08	24.1	74,042	12,137.00	2,437.00	3,516.00
XRX	11.42	0.86	13.32	0.7	12.59B	19,699.77	0.07	1.46	28.5	3.62	5.55	145,600	4,469.00	162	557
WSTC	30.6	1.6	19.17	1.13	2.55B	5,870.45	0.22	1.52	97.87	8.6	19.57	9,700	565.49	48.63	157.61
ADBE	79.09	0.6	131.07	8.89	39.57B	38,291.08	0	2.22	17.27	7.65	15.6	12,499	1,109.18	84.89	254.42
INTC	34.46	2.35	14.64	3.19	163.48B	162,593.20	0.48	1.76	14.77	15.59	20.16	106,700	12,781.00	1,992.00	4,819.00
DELL	0	5.91	0	0.42		150,032.20	0.62	1.18	14.85	1.41	1.87	108,800	112,512.50	1,581.41	5,317.87
ORCL	43.49	2.39	18.2	5.08	189.92B	177,816.90	0.12	3.72	31.61	26.75	36.27	122,000	9,327.00	2,495.00	4,144.00
IBM	169.68	15.75	10.77	2.13	167.09B	197,231.10	1.1	1.3	34.66	12.33	15.32	379,592	19,590.00	2,416.00	4,044.00

-------------------------

KEY STATISTICS

Industry Range: Low

High Mouseover quintile for more detail

Reuters Investment Profile Report

SHAREHOLDER EQUITY

Shares Outstanding	313.8 M
Institutional Ownership	79.28%
Number of Floating Shares	309.2 M
Short Interest as % of Float	4.52%

FINANCIAL STRENGTH (MRQ)

Quick Ratio	--
Current Ratio	1.81x
Debt/Equity	0.89x
Debt/Assets	0.38x

NUAN's debt to equity ratio indicates that it has been more aggressive with using debt to finance growth than 70% of its peers in the Software & Programming industry. The resultant effect on earnings would be more volatile than related companies.

VALUATION (MRQ)

Price/Earnings (TTM)	--
Price/Sales (TTM)	2.75x
Price/Book	2.23x
Price/Cash Flow	30.88x

NUAN was not profitable in its latest fiscal year, therefore the P/E Ratiois not applicable. Its Price to Cash Flow Ratio would give an alternative indication of its expense relative to the Software & Programming industry.

PROFITABILITY (TTM)

Gross Margin	56.41%
Operating Margin	0.30%
EBITDA Margin	14.05%
Net Profit Margin	-6.24%

NUAN's Gross Margin is comparable to other companies in the Software & Programming industry, which means it has relatively the same amount of cash to spend on business operations as its peers. As indicated by the Operating Margin, NUAN controls its costs and expenses better than 67% of its peers.

MANAGEMENT EFFECTIVENESS (TTM)

Return on Assets	-2.06%
Return on Equity	-4.81%
Return on Inves. Capital	-2.35%

The Return on Equity for NUAN shows that it is able to reinvest its earnings as efficiently as its competitors in the Software & Programming industry. Typically, companies that have higher return on equity values are more attractive to investors.

GROWTH RATE (TTM)

Earnings Per Share	26.9
Sales	2.1
Dividend (MRQ)	--

NUAN's EPS Growth Rate is greater than 61% of its peers in the Software & Programming industry.

DIVIDEND (TTM)

Dividend Yield	--
Payout Ratio	--
Annual Dividend	0.00

The average dividend yield for companies in the Software & Programming industry is 1.55%.

OPERATING RATIOS (TTM)

Asset Turnover	0.33%
Inventory Turnover	--
Receivables Turnover	4.93%
Effective Tax Rate	--

These ratios give an indicator of efficiency (ability to move inventory and generate sales) within a company, particularly ones with tangible goods (i.e. automotive, computer hardware) as compared to its peers.

COMPANY OFFICERS

Chairman	Paul A. Ricci
Executive Vice President - Finance	Thomas L. Beaudoin
Corporate Executive	Earl H. Devanny
Executive Vice President	William Robbins
Executive Vice President	Adam Bruce. Bowden
Lead Director	Robert J. Frankenberg
Director	Robert J. Finocchio
Independent Director	Brett M. Icahn
Independent Director	William H. Janeway

COMPANY CONTACT

Employees	14,000
Headquarters	1 Wayside Rd BURLINGTON, MA 01803-4609
Phone	781-565-5000
Fax	781-565-5001
Web Address http://www.nuance.com

-------------------------

BALANCE SHEET

Quarterly
Annual

	5 yr Trend	2010 09/30/10	2011 09/30/11	2012 09/30/12	2013 09/30/13	2014 09/30/14

ASSETS

Cash & Equivalents	517	447	1,130	808	547
Short Term Investments	5	31	0	39	41
Cash and Short Term Inv	522	478	1,130	847	588
Trade Accts Recvble, Gross	224	287	388	397	450
Prov. for Doubtful Accts	(6)	(6)	(7)	(14)	(21)
Total Receivables, Net	225	281	381	383	428
Invent. - Finished Goods	2	5	4	3	4
Inventories - Other	6	7	8	12	9
Total Inventory	9	11	11	15	12
Prepaid Expenses	62	77	91	88	80
Restricted Cash - Current	25	7	0	--	--
Deferred Income Tax	--	0	88	75	56
Other Current Assets	--	--	--	2	0
Other Curr. Assets, Total	25	7	88	77	56
Total Current Assets	842	855	1,701	1,410	1,165
Buildings	21	25	27	32	40
Land/Improvements	2	2	2	2	2
Machinery/Equipment	125	162	224	303	370
Construction in Progress	1	3	2	2	4
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Gross	149	192	255	339	417
Accumulated Depreciation	(87)	(113)	(139)	(178)	(225)
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Net	62	78	116	161	191
Goodwill, Net	2,078	2,348	2,955	3,293	3,411
Intangibles, Gross	1,059	1,227	1,484	1,586	1,632
Accum. Intangible Amort.	(373)	(496)	(577)	(633)	(716)
Intangibles, Net	686	732	907	953	915
Long Term Investments	28	--	--	--	--
Other Long Term Assets	74	83	120	142	138
Total Assets	3,770	4,095	5,799	5,959	5,820

LIABILITIES

Accounts Payable	79	83	113	91	62
Accrued Expenses	147	172	211	181	210
Notes Payable/ST Debt	0	0	0	0	0
Curr. Port. LT Dbt/Cap Ls.	8	7	380	246	5
Customer Advances	142	186	207	254	298
Income Taxes Payable	4	4	5	--	--
Deferred Income Tax	0	--	--	--	--
Other Current Liabilities	2	24	50	34	68
Other Curr. Lblts, Total	149	214	261	287	366
Total Current Liabilities	382	475	965	805	642
Total Long Term Debt	851	853	1,736	2,108	2,127
Total Debt	859	860	2,116	2,354	2,132
Deferred Income Tax	64	72	161	163	156
Other Liabilities, Total	175	202	210	244	313
Total Liabilities	1,473	1,602	3,071	3,321	3,238

SHAREHOLDER EQUITY

Pref. Stock-Non Rdmbl, Net	5	5	5	--	--
Common Stock	0	0	0	0	0
Additional Paid-In Capital	2,582	2,746	2,908	3,017	3,153
Ret. Earn.(Accum. Deficit)	(281)	(243)	(161)	(369)	(531)
Treasury Stock - Common	(17)	(17)	(17)	(17)	(17)
Unrealized Gain (Loss)	0	0	0	--	--
Cum. Trans. Adjustment	13	4	(3)	8	(20)
Min. Pension Lblty Adj.	(5)	(2)	(4)	(1)	(4)
Other Comprehensive Income	0	0	0	--	--
Other Equity, Total	8	2	(7)	7	(24)
Total Equity	2,297	2,493	2,728	2,638	2,582
Total Liabilities & Shareholders� Equity	3,770	4,095	5,799	5,959	5,820
Shr Outs.-Com. Primary Iss.	298	309	312	316	321
Shr Outs.-Com. Stk. Iss. 2	4	4	4	--	--
Ttl Comm. Shares Outs.	302	312	316	316	321
Trsy. Shrs-Comm. Primary Iss.	4	4	4	4	4
Trsy. Shrs-Comm. Iss. 2	0	0	0	--	--

() = Negative Value
Values are displayed in Millions

-------------------------

INCOME STATEMENT

Quarterly
Annual

	5 yr Trend	2010 09/30/10	2011 09/30/11	2012 09/30/12	2013 09/30/13	2014 09/30/14

REVENUE AND GROSS PROFIT

Total Revenue		1,119	1,319	1,652	1,855	1,923

Total Revenue

1,119

1,319

1,652

1,855

1,923

OPERATING EXPENSES

Cost of Revenue, Total	409	500	605	767	844
Selling/Gen/Admin Expense	388	454	415	495	497
Labor & Related Expense	--	--	118	105	113
Sell/Gen/AdminExpenses,Tot	388	454	533	600	609
Research & Development	152	179	225	289	339
Depreciation/Amortization	88	88	95	105	109
Purchased R&D Written-Off	0	--	--	--	--
Restructuring Charge	18	23	8	16	19
Other Unusual Expnse (In)	31	22	59	30	24
Unusual Expense (Income)	49	45	67	46	44
Total Operating Expense	1,086	1,266	1,525	1,807	1,945
Operating Income	33	53	126	48	(21)

NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSES

Inter Expse,Net Non-Operat	(41)	(37)	(85)	(138)	(133)
Inter Income, Non-Operating	1	3	2	2	2
Invest Income, Non-Operat	--	--	6	(4)	(7)
Inter/Invest Inc, Non-Oper	1	3	8	(3)	(4)
OtherNon-OperatInc (Expnse)	6	11	16	(5)	3
Other, Net	6	11	16	(5)	3
Income Before Tax	(1)	30	65	(97)	(155)

INCOME TAXES

Income Tax - Total		18	(8)	(142)	19	(5)
Income After Tax		(19)	38	207	(115)	(150)

MINORITY INTEREST AND EQUITY IN AFFILIATES

Net Inc Before Extra Items		(19)	38	207	(115)	(150)
Net Income		(19)	38	207	(115)	(150)

ADJUSTMENTS TO NET INCOME

Total Adjust to Net Income	0	0	(2)	0	0
Income Available to Common Excl. Extra. Items	(19)	38	205	(115)	(150)
Income Available to Common Incl. Extra. Items	(19)	38	205	(115)	(150)

EPS RECONCILIATION

Basic/Primary Weighted Average Shares	287	302	306	314	317
Basic/Primary EPS Excl. Extra. Items	(0.07)	0.13	0.67	(0.37)	(0.47)
Basic/Primary EPS Incl. Extra. Items	(0.07)	0.13	0.67	(0.37)	(0.47)
Dilution Adjustment	0	0	2	0	0
Diluted Weighted Average Shares	287	316	321	314	317
Diluted EPS Excl. Extra. Items	(0.07)	0.12	0.65	(0.37)	(0.47)
Diluted EPS Incl. Extra. Items	(0.07)	0.12	0.65	(0.37)	(0.47)

COMMON STOCK DIVIDENDS

Div/Share-ComStockPrimIssue		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Divid - Common Stock		0	0	0	0	0

PRO FORMA INCOME

Pro Forma Net Income		--	--	--	--	--

Pro Forma Net Income

--

SUPPLEMENTAL ITEMS

Interest Expense, Suppl		41	37	85	138	133
Depreciat/Amort, Suppl		22	28	32	40	52

NORMALIZED INCOME

Total Special Items	49	45	67	46	44
Normalized Income Before Tax	47	75	132	(51)	(111)
EffectSpecItemsInclTax(STEC)	17	16	23	16	15
InclTaxExcl/ImpactSpecItems	35	7	(118)	35	11
Normalized Income After Tax	12	67	251	(85)	(122)
Normalized Inc Avail to Common	12	67	248	(85)	(122)
Basic Normalized EPS	0.04	0.22	0.81	(0.27)	(0.38)
Diluted Normalized EPS	0.04	0.21	0.78	(0.27)	(0.38)

() = Negative Value
Values are displayed in Millions

-------------------------

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Quarterly
Annual

	5 yr Trend	2010 09/30/10	2011 09/30/11	2012 09/30/12	2013 09/30/13	2014 09/30/14

CASH FROM (USED BY) OPERATING ACTIVITIES

Net Income	(19,099)	38,238	207,135	(115,238)	(150,343)
Depreciation/Depletion	157,156	170,933	187,183	208,659	221,776
Deferred Taxes	3,742	(43,890)	(151,547)	(2,472)	(22,172)
Unusual Items	6,833	11,725	0	0	--
Other Non-Cash Items	114,670	176,298	200,368	193,597	221,957
Non-Cash Items	121,503	188,023	200,368	193,597	221,957
Cash Taxes Pd, Supplemental	14,215	15,949	13,292	18,329	15,591
Cash Interest Pd, Suppl	27,899	23,034	36,907	95,727	96,743
Accounts Receivable	(773)	(25,530)	(55,210)	25,165	(39,502)
Prepaid Expenses	(3,840)	(11,793)	13,881	10,988	(396)
Accounts Payable	4,710	(8,193)	22,645	(26,843)	(28,617)
Accrued Expenses	(6,760)	(6,775)	8,939	16,506	13,617
Changes in Working Capital	32,980	4,107	29,860	110,464	86,929
Total Cash from Operations	296,282	357,411	472,999	395,010	358,147

PLUS: CASH FROM (USED BY) INVESTING ACTIVITIES

Purchase of Fixed Assets	(25,974)	(34,907)	(62,910)	(55,588)	(60,287)
Purchase/Acq of Intangibles	(15,300)	(6,715)	--	--	--
Capital Expenditures	(41,274)	(41,622)	(62,910)	(55,588)	(60,287)
Acquisition of Business	(203,729)	(402,290)	(884,945)	(607,653)	(253,000)
Sale/Maturity of Investment	0	11,650	31,789	8,768	64,975
Purchase of Investments	(48,499)	(10,776)	(15,156)	(39,435)	(62,639)
Other Investing Cash Flow	(22,070)	17,184	6,747	0	0
OtherInvestCashFlowItms,Tot	(274,298)	(384,232)	(861,565)	(638,320)	(250,664)
Total Cash from Investing	(315,572)	(425,854)	(924,475)	(693,908)	(310,951)

PLUS: CASH FROM (USED BY) FINANCING ACTIVITIES

Financing Cash Flow Items	(13,650)	(12,527)	1,320,415	560,837	(45,407)
Sale/Issuance of Common	41,860	36,667	27,747	30,216	22,652
Repurch/Retirement Common	0	0	(199,997)	(184,388)	(26,483)
Iss (Retirmnt) of Stock,Net	41,860	36,667	(172,250)	(154,172)	(3,831)
Short Term Debt Reduction	(8,460)	(7,535)	(6,605)	(425,634)	--
Short Term Debt, Net	(8,460)	(7,535)	(6,605)	(425,634)	--
Long Term Debt, Net	(9,870)	(10,643)	(8,525)	(1,688)	(257,928)
Iss (Retirmnt) of Debt, Net	(18,330)	(18,178)	(15,130)	(427,322)	(257,928)
Total Cash From Financing	9,880	5,962	1,133,035	(20,657)	(307,166)

EQUALS: INCREASE (DECREASE) IN CASH

Foreign Exchange Effects	(998)	(6,925)	978	(2,088)	(918)
Net Change in Cash	(10,408)	(69,406)	682,537	(321,643)	(260,888)
NetCash-BeginBal/RsvdforFutUse	527,038	516,630	447,224	1,129,761	808,118
NetCash-EndBal/RsrvforFutUse	516,630	447,224	1,129,761	808,118	547,230
Depreciation, Supplemental	157,156	170,933	187,183	208,659	221,776
Cash Interest Pd, Suppl	27,899	23,034	36,907	95,727	96,743
Cash Taxes Pd, Supplemental	14,215	15,949	13,292	18,329	15,591

() = Negative Value
Values are displayed in Thousands

저작자표시 비영리

'경제이야기 > Stock' 카테고리의 다른 글

20150529 아주 관심있는 종목 리스트 (0)	2015.05.31
Delta Airlines, DAL (0)	2015.05.31
IRobot, IRBT (0)	2015.05.31
숫자분석의 달인 quantifiedalpha.com (0)	2015.05.13
19 stocks to buy now - CNNMoney (0)	2015.03.28

Posted by 쁘레드

IRobot, IRBT

작년말에 IRobot Roomba를 처음샀습니다. 가정에서 매주 하는 청소에 대해서 새로운 역사를 쓰는것 같습니다. 이런거 로봇으로 대체할수 없을까 했는데 상당히 만족하고 있습니다. 저런것이 잘 될까했는데 많은 분들이 상당히 마음에 든다고 하셔서 구입한거 였습니다. 제가 이것을 구입한 이후로 주변에 이런게 될까 고민하는 많은 사람에게 강추를 몇번 날렸습니다.

그런 제 모습을 보며 이 회사에 투자를 해야겠다고 생각하고 있습니다. 회사를 조사해 보니 제가 맘에 든느 부분은 For The HOME 부분 인데 For the Business는 제품도 별로고 판매도 별로일것 같고요. For Defense & Security는 상당히 좋을것이라고 생각됩니다.각 부문이 매출과 이득에 차치하는 비율을 잘 계산해본다음에 추천일까 아닐까를 update할까합니다. (청소로봇 룸바와 브라바는 무조건 강추입니다.)

지금 인기를 끌고 있는 Drone쪽으로 룸바같은것을 만들면 완전 이회사 대박일것이라고 생각됩니다. 이미 기술을 다 가지고 있고 많은 사람들이 필요로하는 demand를 잘 파악해야겠지요.

------------------------

KEY STATISTICS

Industry Range: Low

High Mouseover quintile for more detail

Reuters Investment Profile Report

SHAREHOLDER EQUITY

Shares Outstanding	29.7 M
Institutional Ownership	68.84%
Number of Floating Shares	28.8 M
Short Interest as % of Float	13.78%

FINANCIAL STRENGTH (MRQ)

Quick Ratio	4.88x
Current Ratio	5.72x
Debt/Equity	0.00x
Debt/Assets	0.00x

VALUATION (MRQ)

Price/Earnings (TTM)	25.90x
Price/Sales (TTM)	1.69x
Price/Book	2.41x
Price/Cash Flow	28.48x

IRBT's P/E Ratio is greater than 79% of other companies in the Appliance & Tool industry. This typically means that investors are willing to pay more for its level of earnings relative to future growth.

PROFITABILITY (TTM)

Gross Margin	46.39%
Operating Margin	9.46%
EBITDA Margin	11.86%
Net Profit Margin	6.65%

IRBT's Gross Margin is more than 87% of other companies in the Appliance & Tool industry, which means it has more cash to spend on business operations as compared to its peers. As indicated by theOperating Margin, IRBT controls its costs and expenses better than 75% of its peers.

MANAGEMENT EFFECTIVENESS (TTM)

Return on Assets	8.58%
Return on Equity	10.06%
Return on Inves. Capital	9.95%

The Return on Equity for IRBT shows that it is able to reinvest its earnings as efficiently as its competitors in the Appliance & Tool industry. Typically, companies that have higher return on equity values are more attractive to investors.

GROWTH RATE (TTM)

Earnings Per Share	48.6
Sales	13.2
Dividend (MRQ)	--

IRBT's EPS Growth Rate is greater than 72% of its peers in the Appliance & Tool industry.

DIVIDEND (TTM)

Dividend Yield	--
Payout Ratio	0.00%
Annual Dividend	0.00

The average dividend yield for companies in the Appliance & Tool industry is 1.44%.

OPERATING RATIOS (TTM)

Asset Turnover	1.29%
Inventory Turnover	6.60%
Receivables Turnover	14.79%
Effective Tax Rate	27.93%

These ratios give an indicator of efficiency (ability to move inventory and generate sales) within a company, particularly ones with tangible goods (i.e. automotive, computer hardware) as compared to its peers.

COMPANY OFFICERS

Chairman	Colin M. Angle
Chief Financial Officer	Alison Dean
Executive Vice President	Paolo Pirjanian
Executive Vice President	Glen D. Weinstein
Executive Vice President	Russell J. Campanello
Senior Vice President	Christian Cerda
Lead Director	George C. McNamee
Independent Director	Ronald D. Chwang
Independent Director	Gail Deegan

COMPANY CONTACT

Employees	589
Headquarters	8 Crosby Dr BEDFORD, MA 01730-1402
Phone	781-430-3000
Fax	781-430-3001
Web Address http://www.irobot.com/

------------------------

BALANCE SHEET

	5 yr Trend	2011 01/01/11	2011 12/31/11	2012 12/29/12	2013 12/28/13	2014 12/27/14

ASSETS

Cash & Equivalents	108,383	166,308	126,770	165,404	185,957
Short Term Investments	13,928	17,811	12,430	21,954	36,166
Cash and Short Term Inv	122,311	184,119	139,200	187,358	222,123
Trade Accts Recvble, Gross	34,144	43,425	29,524	39,415	71,123
Prov. for Doubtful Accts	(88)	(87)	(111)	(67)	(67)
Total Receivables, Net	38,068	45,700	30,609	40,204	73,670
Invent. - Finished Goods	20,410	23,320	28,056	37,587	38,402
Invent. - Work In Progress	27	0	60	0	0
Invent. - Raw Materials	6,723	7,769	8,849	8,520	9,455
Total Inventory	27,160	31,089	36,965	46,107	47,857
Deferred Income Tax	12,917	15,344	19,266	20,144	21,505
Other Current Assets	6,137	7,928	8,853	6,848	9,704
Other Curr. Assets, Total	19,054	23,272	28,119	26,992	31,209
Total Current Assets	206,593	284,180	234,893	300,661	374,859
Buildings	13,532	15,459	15,758	15,983	20,833
Machinery/Equipment	29,817	36,632	37,897	37,810	47,308
Other Prop./Plant/Equip.	2,484	2,732	2,762	1,845	2,297
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Gross	45,833	54,823	56,417	55,638	70,438
Accumulated Depreciation	(20,213)	(25,794)	(31,464)	(31,977)	(39,141)
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Net	25,620	29,029	24,953	23,661	31,297
Goodwill, Net	7,910	7,910	48,951	48,751	48,751
Intangibles, Gross	4,500	4,500	31,500	31,500	31,500
Accum. Intangible Amort.	(1,130)	(2,033)	(3,276)	(8,832)	(12,354)
Intangibles, Net	3,370	2,467	28,224	22,668	19,146
Long Term Investments	2,500	2,500	--	10,501	10,751
Other Long Term Assets	--	--	8,500	--	--
Total Assets	254,331	332,213	354,313	416,337	493,213

LIABILITIES

Accounts Payable	38,689	48,406	42,515	41,344	60,256
Accrued Expenses	33,617	34,110	24,787	33,552	33,367
Notes Payable/ST Debt	0	0	0	0	0
Customer Advances	3,534	1,527	6,257	5,188	4,551
Income Taxes Payable	--	957	719	831	867
Other Curr. Lblts, Total	3,534	2,484	6,976	6,019	5,418
Total Current Liabilities	75,840	85,000	74,278	80,915	99,041
Total Long Term Debt	0	0	0	0	0
Total Debt	0	0	0	0	0
Other Liabilities, Total	3,584	4,255	4,218	4,733	3,736
Total Liabilities	79,424	89,255	78,496	85,648	102,777

SHAREHOLDER EQUITY

Redeemable Preferred Stock	0	--	0	0	0
Common Stock	258	272	278	289	297
Additional Paid-In Capital	156,620	184,395	199,903	227,175	249,409
Ret. Earn.(Accum. Deficit)	17,949	58,140	75,437	103,078	140,881
Other Equity, Total	80	151	199	147	(151)
Total Equity	174,907	242,958	275,817	330,689	390,436
Total Liabilities & Shareholders� Equity	254,331	332,213	354,313	416,337	493,213
Ttl Comm. Shares Outs.	25,845	27,217	27,782	28,935	29,645
Trsy. Shrs-Comm. Primary Iss.	0	0	0	0	0

------------------------

INCOME STATEMENT

	5 yr Trend	2011 01/01/11	2011 12/31/11	2012 12/29/12	2013 12/28/13	2014 12/27/14

REVENUE AND GROSS PROFIT

Total Revenue		401	466	436	487	557

Total Revenue

401

466

436

487

557

OPERATING EXPENSES

Cost of Revenue, Total	256	258	242	266	299
Selling/Gen/Admin Expense	87	88	104	115	126
Labor & Related Expense	--	6	8	10	10
Sell/Gen/AdminExpenses,Tot	87	94	112	125	136
Research & Development	25	60	57	64	69
Total Operating Expense	367	412	411	455	504
Operating Income	33	53	25	33	53

NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSES

Other, Net		1	0	0	0	(1)
Income Before Tax		34	54	26	32	52

INCOME TAXES

Income Tax - Total		8	13	8	5	15
Income After Tax		26	40	17	28	38

MINORITY INTEREST AND EQUITY IN AFFILIATES

Net Inc Before Extra Items		26	40	17	28	38
Net Income		26	40	17	28	38

ADJUSTMENTS TO NET INCOME

Income Available to Common Excl. Extra. Items		26	40	17	28	38
Income Available to Common Incl. Extra. Items		26	40	17	28	38

EPS RECONCILIATION

Basic/Primary Weighted Average Shares	25	27	28	28	29
Basic/Primary EPS Excl. Extra. Items	1.00	1.50	0.63	0.97	1.28
Basic/Primary EPS Incl. Extra. Items	1.00	1.50	0.63	0.97	1.28
Dilution Adjustment	0	0	--	--	--
Diluted Weighted Average Shares	26	28	28	29	30
Diluted EPS Excl. Extra. Items	0.96	1.44	0.61	0.94	1.25
Diluted EPS Incl. Extra. Items	0.96	1.44	0.61	0.94	1.25

COMMON STOCK DIVIDENDS

Div/Share-ComStockPrimIssue		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Divid - Common Stock		0	0	0	0	0

PRO FORMA INCOME

Pro Forma Net Income

--

SUPPLEMENTAL ITEMS

Depreciat/Amort, Suppl

7

10

12

13

NORMALIZED INCOME

Total Special Items	0	--	--	--	--
Normalized Income Before Tax	34	54	26	32	52
EffectSpecItemsInclTax(STEC)	0	--	--	--	--
InclTaxExcl/ImpactSpecItems	9	13	8	5	15
Normalized Income After Tax	26	40	17	28	38
Normalized Inc Avail to Common	26	40	17	28	38
Basic Normalized EPS	1.02	1.50	0.63	0.97	1.28
Diluted Normalized EPS	0.97	1.44	0.61	0.94	1.25

------------------------

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

	5 yr Trend	2011 01/01/11	2011 12/31/11	2012 12/29/12	2013 12/28/13	2014 12/27/14

CASH FROM (USED BY) OPERATING ACTIVITIES

Net Income	25,514	40,191	17,297	27,641	37,803
Depreciation/Depletion	7,541	10,312	11,672	12,169	13,049
Deferred Taxes	(4,998)	6,154	(3,763)	(768)	3,101
Unusual Items	204	599	1,332	2,177	246
Other Non-Cash Items	5,675	2,029	9,625	11,047	10,776
Non-Cash Items	5,879	2,628	10,957	13,224	11,022
Cash Taxes Pd, Supplemental	17,807	8,046	11,663	7,235	15,508
Accounts Receivable	(1,066)	(7,632)	16,726	(9,595)	(33,466)
Inventories	5,246	(3,929)	(807)	(9,365)	(2,387)
Other Assets	(2,082)	(1,843)	(2,892)	1,980	(2,856)
Accounts Payable	8,130	9,717	(8,684)	(1,743)	16,249
Accrued Expenses	5,797	1,473	(6,762)	9,006	324
Changes in Working Capital	15,221	(3,550)	1,698	(10,374)	(24,369)
Total Cash from Operations	49,157	55,735	37,861	41,892	40,606

PLUS: CASH FROM (USED BY) INVESTING ACTIVITIES

Capital Expenditures	(12,597)	(13,011)	(6,770)	(6,829)	(13,774)
Acquisition of Business	0	0	(74,530)	0	0
Sale of Fixed Assets	--	--	--	650	0
Sale/Maturity of Investment	21,500	5,000	10,000	8,044	16,500
Purchase of Investments	(30,461)	(9,189)	(5,086)	(17,946)	(31,219)
Other Investing Cash Flow	0	0	(6,000)	(2,000)	(250)
OtherInvestCashFlowItms,Tot	(8,961)	(4,189)	(75,616)	(11,252)	(14,969)
Total Cash from Investing	(21,558)	(17,200)	(82,386)	(18,081)	(28,743)

PLUS: CASH FROM (USED BY) FINANCING ACTIVITIES

Financing Cash Flow Items	2,338	5,989	661	1,194	1,425
Common Stock, Net	--	--	--	--	(1,678)
Options Exercised	6,590	13,401	4,326	13,629	8,943
Iss (Retirmnt) of Stock,Net	6,590	13,401	4,326	13,629	7,265
Total Cash From Financing	8,928	19,390	4,987	14,823	8,690

EQUALS: INCREASE (DECREASE) IN CASH

Net Change in Cash	36,527	57,925	(39,538)	38,634	20,553
NetCash-BeginBal/RsvdforFutUse	71,856	108,383	166,308	126,770	165,404
NetCash-EndBal/RsrvforFutUse	108,383	166,308	126,770	165,404	185,957
Depreciation, Supplemental	7,541	10,312	11,672	12,169	13,049
Cash Taxes Pd, Supplemental	17,807	8,046	11,663	7,235	15,508

------------------------

저작자표시 비영리

'경제이야기 > Stock' 카테고리의 다른 글

Delta Airlines, DAL (0)	2015.05.31
Nuance, NUAN 추천 (0)	2015.05.31
숫자분석의 달인 quantifiedalpha.com (0)	2015.05.13
19 stocks to buy now - CNNMoney (0)	2015.03.28
Should You Consider Nuance Communications? (0)	2015.03.24

Posted by 쁘레드

숫자분석의 달인 quantifiedalpha.com

Seekingalpha에서 글을 보다가 GT(Goodyear tire)가 undervalue되었있다고 주장하는 글을 읽다가 상당히 재밌는 사이트를 알게됐습니다. 수치해석, 통계, 숫자표현 이런것에 능한사람이 만든것 같습니다. seekingalpha와 자매사이트 같기도 하고요. 다 맞다고 하는것은 아니고요, 계산 geeks들은 어떻게 계산하는지 같이 계산기 뚜드리는지 이해해 보고 싶습니다.

내용이 재밌어서 평소 관심있는 종목들을 넣어봤습니다.

https://quantifiedalpha.com/

---------------

GT(Goodyear TIre)

Market Cap: $7.55B (Mid Cap)

Market Beta: 2.23 (Very High Market Risk)

Metric	GT	Percentile	Analysis
Value Alpha:	10.25%	98th	Strongly Undervalued
Growth Alpha:	4.50%	91st	Strong Growth
Quality Alpha:	-5.29%	14th	Bad Quality
Smart Alpha:	1.78%	67th	Slightly Bullish
Total Alpha:	11.24%	90th	Moderate Outperform

Days to Earnings Release	78 Days	Earnings Strength Rating
Wall St. Consensus EPS Estimate	$0.75	Wall St. Consensus Rev. Estimate	$4.10B

-------------

AA(Alcoa)

Market Cap: $16.89B (Large Cap)

Market Beta: 1.64 (High Market Risk)

Metric	AA	Percentile	Analysis
Value Alpha:	4.21%	78th	Moderately Undervalued
Growth Alpha:	-0.61%	35th	Weak Growth
Quality Alpha:	-1.98%	28th	Mediocre Quality
Smart Alpha:	-2.47%	23rd	Moderately Bearish
Total Alpha:	-0.84%	40th	Slight Underperform

Days to Earnings Release	57 Days	Earnings Strength Rating
Wall St. Consensus EPS Estimate	$0.26	Wall St. Consensus Rev. Estimate	$5.91B

-------------

DAL(Delta Airlines)

Market Cap: $35.84B (Large Cap)

Market Beta: 1.01 (Low Market Risk)

Metric	DAL	Percentile	Analysis
Value Alpha:	1.43%	59th	Slightly Undervalued
Growth Alpha:	-0.01%	43rd	Weak Growth
Quality Alpha:	3.87%	77th	Great Quality
Smart Alpha:	0.02%	45th	Slightly Bearish
Total Alpha:	5.31%	68th	Slight Outperform

Days to Earnings Release	71 Days	Earnings Strength Rating
Wall St. Consensus EPS Estimate	$1.32	Wall St. Consensus Rev. Estimate	$10.78B

-------------

NUAN(Nuance)

Market Cap: $4.99B (Mid Cap)

Market Beta: 1.11 (Average Market Risk)

Metric	NUAN	Percentile	Analysis
Value Alpha:	-3.15%	27th	Slightly Overvalued
Growth Alpha:	-1.96%	21st	Negative Growth
Quality Alpha:	3.78%	75th	Good Quality
Smart Alpha:	-4.37%	12th	Moderately Bearish
Total Alpha:	-5.70%	23rd	Moderate Underperform

Days to Earnings Release	-5 Days	Earnings Strength Rating
Wall St. Consensus EPS Estimate	$0.10	Wall St. Consensus Rev. Estimate	$482.18M

-------------

QCOM(Qualcomm)

Metric	QCOM	Percentile	Analysis
Value Alpha:	-0.97%	41st	Slightly Overvalued
Growth Alpha:	-0.50%	36th	Weak Growth
Quality Alpha:	-3.13%	22nd	Bad Quality
Smart Alpha:	1.26%	61st	Slightly Bullish
Total Alpha:	-3.34%	31st	Slight Underperform

Days to Earnings Release	71 Days	Earnings Strength Rating
Wall St. Consensus EPS Estimate	$0.82	Wall St. Consensus Rev. Estimate	$5.81B

--------------

AAPL(Apple)

Market Cap: $724.74B (Mega Cap)

Market Beta: 0.85 (Low Market Risk)

Metric	AAPL	Percentile	Analysis
Value Alpha:	-0.99%	40th	Slightly Overvalued
Growth Alpha:	5.91%	96th	Strong Growth
Quality Alpha:	5.11%	89th	Great Quality
Smart Alpha:	1.82%	68th	Slightly Bullish
Total Alpha:	11.85%	92nd	Strong Outperform

Days to Earnings Release	77 Days	Earnings Strength Rating
Wall St. Consensus EPS Estimate	$1.74	Wall St. Consensus Rev. Estimate	$48.07B

-------------

F(Ford)

Market Cap: $61.74B (Large Cap)

Market Beta: 1.57 (High Market Risk)

Metric	F	Percentile	Analysis
Value Alpha:	7.69%	93rd	Strongly Undervalued
Growth Alpha:	-0.23%	40th	Weak Growth
Quality Alpha:	1.00%	50th	Mediocre Quality
Smart Alpha:	0.68%	53rd	Slightly Bullish
Total Alpha:	9.14%	84th	Moderate Outperform

Days to Earnings Release	72 Days	Earnings Strength Rating
Wall St. Consensus EPS Estimate	$0.38	Wall St. Consensus Rev. Estimate	$35.65B

-------------

NXP

Market Cap: $24.53B (Large Cap)

Market Beta: 2.65 (Very High Market Risk)

Metric	NXPI	Percentile	Analysis
Value Alpha:	-5.28%	18th	Moderately Overvalued
Growth Alpha:	6.37%	97th	Strong Growth
Quality Alpha:	6.55%	97th	Excellent Quality
Smart Alpha:	1.71%	66th	Slightly Bullish
Total Alpha:	9.35%	85th	Moderate Outperform

Days to Earnings Release	71 Days	Earnings Strength Rating
Wall St. Consensus EPS Estimate	$1.24	Wall St. Consensus Rev. Estimate	$1.51B

-------------

Top 50 ; 자체 지표로 value가 상당히 높다고 나온 상위 50개 종목인것 같습니다. 유료로 하면 screener같은것을 쓰게 해줄것 같습니다. 저는 Market Cap이 너무 작은 기업들은 valuation을 계산할 가치가 떨어진다고 생각합니다.

Rank	Company	Ticker	Total	Value	Growth	Quality	Smart	Earnings
Rank	Company		Alpha	Alpha	Alpha	Alpha	Alpha	Strength
1	Net 1 Ueps Technologies Inc.	UEPS	21.09%	8.41%	5.14%	3.83%	3.70%
2	Bassett Furniture Industries Inc.	BSET	20.63%	4.29%	7.06%	5.05%	4.23%
3	Chipmos Technologies (BERMUDA) Ltd	IMOS	20.00%	8.81%	0.80%	5.58%	4.81%
4	Global Brass And Copper Holdings Inc	BRSS	19.23%	6.66%	2.93%	3.82%	5.83%
5	Shoe Carnival Inc.	SCVL	18.27%	3.35%	3.28%	6.36%	5.28%
6	Valero Energy Corp.	VLO	17.86%	10.25%	2.15%	4.15%	1.30%
7	Wal-Mart Stores Inc.	WMT	17.79%	6.28%	1.54%	5.91%	4.06%
8	Spartan Stores Inc.	SPTN	17.17%	5.47%	5.80%	4.12%	1.79%
9	Arch Capital Group Ltd	ACGL	17.12%	6.86%	2.13%	1.39%	6.74%
10	Voya Financial Inc	VOYA	17.00%	10.84%	1.95%	1.39%	2.83%
11	The Marcus Corporation	MCS	16.79%	4.13%	2.19%	6.27%	4.20%
12	United Continental Holdings, Inc.	UAL	16.79%	6.52%	4.75%	4.62%	0.89%
13	Lear Corp.	LEA	16.67%	5.91%	4.49%	4.88%	1.39%
14	Infinity Property and Casualty Corp.	IPCC	16.59%	8.53%	1.51%	1.83%	4.71%
15	Culp Inc.	CFI	16.51%	1.89%	4.79%	7.00%	2.83%
16	Sanmina-SCI Corp.	SANM	16.46%	9.38%	1.18%	1.67%	4.23%
17	Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd	TNP	16.17%	6.57%	5.63%	-0.64%	4.61%
18	ZAGG Incorporated	ZAGG	16.10%	2.74%	5.59%	4.04%	3.73%
19	Jabil Circuit Inc.	JBL	16.02%	8.22%	3.11%	3.26%	1.43%
20	Midwestone Financial Group Inc	MOFG	15.94%	4.75%	1.14%	3.12%	6.93%
21	Mainsource Financial Group Inc	MSFG	15.92%	5.35%	1.62%	2.14%	6.80%
22	Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp	BGFV	15.92%	7.07%	1.39%	4.76%	2.70%
23	Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd	NVMI	15.69%	1.40%	1.97%	8.35%	3.96%
24	SkyWest Inc.	SKYW	15.54%	6.43%	3.02%	1.86%	4.23%
25	Aetna Inc.	AET	15.54%	4.61%	4.86%	2.98%	3.08%
26	Delphi Automotive Plc	DLPH	15.40%	1.26%	4.44%	6.37%	3.33%
27	EchoStar Corp.	SATS	15.28%	5.04%	1.75%	4.00%	4.48%
28	Ducommun Inc	DCO	15.20%	7.25%	3.28%	2.61%	2.06%
29	Perfect World Co., Ltd.	PWRD	15.12%	6.33%	0.09%	7.91%	0.79%
30	Enlink Midstream Llc	ENLC	15.06%	4.72%	0.57%	1.23%	8.54%
31	AerCap Holdings N.V.	AER	14.94%	5.22%	2.25%	4.62%	2.84%
32	Consolidated Edison Inc.	ED	14.84%	8.43%	0.81%	4.80%	0.80%
33	AutoNation Inc.	AN	14.67%	4.09%	2.62%	4.62%	3.34%
34	Flextronics International Ltd.	FLEX	14.49%	6.03%	4.37%	2.66%	1.42%
35	Bravo Brio Restaurant Group, Inc.	BBRG	14.31%	5.57%	0.86%	7.27%	0.61%
36	Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd	ENH	14.20%	8.20%	1.94%	-0.23%	4.29%
37	Magna International Inc.	MGA	14.10%	7.97%	2.28%	2.84%	1.01%
38	Superior Energy Services, Inc.	SPN	14.05%	7.84%	0.20%	5.17%	0.84%
39	Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.	HII	14.02%	1.84%	4.70%	3.90%	3.58%
40	United Online, Inc.	UNTD	14.01%	0.02%	4.08%	5.47%	4.43%
41	Cai International Inc	CAP	13.84%	9.49%	0.62%	1.29%	2.44%
42	Encore Wire Corp.	WIRE	13.83%	2.55%	0.38%	5.07%	5.83%
43	Intel Corporation	INTC	13.82%	3.09%	2.86%	7.41%	0.46%
44	K12, Inc.	LRN	13.78%	7.65%	0.88%	3.22%	2.03%
45	Blount International Inc.	BLT	13.77%	3.98%	1.83%	4.32%	3.64%
46	Science Applications International Corporation	SAIC	13.73%	4.10%	3.81%	-2.62%	8.44%
47	Federal Signal Corp.	FSS	13.65%	5.00%	0.13%	4.56%	3.96%
48	Targa Resources Corp.	TRGP	13.61%	8.21%	0.44%	1.64%	3.32%
49	Health Net, Inc.	HNT	13.61%	3.36%	3.40%	5.85%	1.00%
50	Central Garden & Pet Co.	CENT	13.60%	5.36%	2.47%	2.69%	3.08%

저작자표시 비영리

'경제이야기 > Stock' 카테고리의 다른 글

Nuance, NUAN 추천 (0)	2015.05.31
IRobot, IRBT (0)	2015.05.31
19 stocks to buy now - CNNMoney (0)	2015.03.28
Should You Consider Nuance Communications? (0)	2015.03.24
2015년 유가상승 가능성을 이용한 투자 idea (0)	2015.03.23

Posted by 쁘레드

19 stocks to buy now - CNNMoney

그냥 웃지요. 그래도 관심있는 종목은 track해봐도 좋을듯.

내가 너희들 1년후에 결과를 추적해서 기자한테 보내주겠어. 고맙다고 보낼지 주~우~욱~고 싶냐고 보낼지.

-----------------------------

Wall Street may be stressing out, but that can create a window of opportunity for investors.

The stock market often takes a breather in the weeks leading up to earnings season, which kicks off April 8 with Alcoa (AA). Investors have anxieties until they start seeing the actual numbers.

Nervousness has mounted this week as investors brace for what could be the first year-over-year decline in profits since 2012 and worry about how expensive stocks have gotten.

But Goldman Sachs (GS) says now is the time to pounce, especially on American stocks laser-focused on returning cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.

"Buyback window closure is a window of opportunity for investors," Amanda Sneider, vice president of U.S. portfolio strategy at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note to clients She's referring to the "blackout" period happening now where companies pause their share buyback programs ahead of earnings.

"Investors should view any market pressure as a buying opportunity," she wrote.

Focus on the cash: The investment bank is urging investors to buy its total cash return basket of 50 U.S. stocks like Apple (AAPL, Tech30), CVS (CVS), DirecTV (DTV) and FedEx (FDX) that have fat dividends and lucrative repurchase plans.

Dividends and buybacks are known as shareholder-friendly moves because they essentially reward investors for doing nothing other than simply holding onto the shares.

With companies sitting on more cash than ever before, it seems reasonable to bet more of these moves will be unveiled this earnings season. Goldman expects buybacks to increase 18% to $604 billion and dividends to grow 7% this year.

Despite recent turbulence, Goldman's crystal ball is still forecasting the S&P 500 will rise to 2,150 by midyear (it's currently around 2,060). That means it would have to bounce about 4% from current levels. But not all stocks will enjoy the same rally.

"We believe stocks with high total cash returns will outperform as S&P 500 firms grow buybacks and dividends," Sneider wrote.

The stocks in Goldman's total cash return basket offer double the cash yield of the median S&P stock and are an average of 13% cheaper.

Here are 19 selected stocks in Goldman's total cash return basket:

1. Abbott Labs (ABT)

2. Anthem (ANTM)

3. Apple (AAPL, Tech30)

4. CBS (CBS)

5. Cigna (CI)

6. CVS (CVS)

7. DirecTv (DTV)

8. Express Scripts (ESRX)

9. FedEx (FDX)

10. Halliburton (HAL)

11. Illinois Tool Works (ITW)

12. Kroger (KR)

13. LyondellBasell (LYB)

14. Mondelez (MDLZ)

15. Northrop Grumman (NOC)

16. Pfizer (PFE)

17. Phillips 66 (PSX)

18. Time Warner (TWX) (owner of CNNMoney)

19. Travelers (TRV)

------------------------------

Abbott Laboratories

Today's Trading

Previous close	46.50
Today's open	46.61
Day's range	46.42 - 47.03
Volume	1,972,917
Average volume (3 months)	5,568,462
Market cap	$70.2B
Dividend yield	2.05%

Data as of 3:20pm ET, 03/27/2015

Growth & Valuation

Earnings growth (last year)	-8.61%
Earnings growth (this year)	-5.48%
Earnings growth (next 5 years)	+11.40%
Revenue growth (last year)	-7.33%
P/E ratio	41.7
Price/Sales	3.37
Price/Book	3.26

Competitors

	Today's change	Today's % change
VRXValeant Pharmaceutic...	+0.26	+0.13%
LLYEli Lilly and Co	+0.21	+0.29%
AZNAstraZeneca	+0.35	+0.50%
ABBVAbbVie	+0.35	+0.62%

Data as of 3:35pm ET, 03/27/2015

Financials

Next reporting date	April 15, 2015
EPS forecast (this quarter)	$0.42
Annual revenue (last year)	$20.2B
Annual profit (last year)	$2.3B
Net profit margin	8.50%

Profile

Sector

Health Technology

Industry

Medical Specialties

Chairman &
Chief Executive Officer

Miles D. White

Chief Financial Officer &
Executive Vice President

Thomas C. Freyman

Corporate headquarters

Abbott Park, Illinois

Forecasts

NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP

Today's Trading

Previous close	159.31
Today's open	159.14
Day's range	158.90 - 160.64
Volume	1,105,471
Average volume (3 months)	1,603,147
Market cap	$31.6B
Dividend yield	1.75%

Data as of 3:21pm ET, 03/27/2015

Growth & Valuation

Earnings growth (last year)	+16.77%
Earnings growth (this year)	-2.78%
Earnings growth (next 5 years)	+9.46%
Revenue growth (last year)	-2.77%
P/E ratio	16.4
Price/Sales	1.28
Price/Book	4.38

Competitors

	Today's change	Today's % change
RTNRaytheon	+1.15	+1.06%
COLRockwell Collins Inc	+0.91	+0.97%
LLLL-3 Communications H...	+0.07	+0.06%
GRMNGarmin Ltd	+0.20	+0.42%

Data as of 3:35pm ET, 03/27/2015

Financials

Next reporting date	April 22, 2015
EPS forecast (this quarter)	$2.26
Annual revenue (last year)	$24.0B
Annual profit (last year)	$2.1B
Net profit margin	8.63%

Profile

Sector

Electronic Technology

Industry

Aerospace & Defense

Chairman, President &
Chief Executive Officer

Wesley G. Bush

Chief Financial Officer &
Vice President

Kenneth L. Bedingfield

Corporate headquarters

Falls Church, Virginia

Forecasts

-------------------------

'경제이야기 > Stock' 카테고리의 다른 글

IRobot, IRBT (0)	2015.05.31
숫자분석의 달인 quantifiedalpha.com (0)	2015.05.13
Should You Consider Nuance Communications? (0)	2015.03.24
2015년 유가상승 가능성을 이용한 투자 idea (0)	2015.03.23
AA Alcoa 추천 (0)	2015.03.21

Posted by 쁘레드

Should You Consider Nuance Communications?

By Investopedia | March 10, 2015

It's been a turbulent few years for Nuance Communications , even as voice-powered virtual assistants (many using Nuance's voice-recognition technology) continue to rise in popularity and acceptance. In fact, voice-recognition is becoming a staple of many consumer electronics these days, and Nuance is the clear leader in this field.

As shares have trended lower over the past three years, significantly underperforming the broader market, should investors consider Nuance as it sits near 52-week lows?

Where Nuance is coming from
The first thing to consider is whether or not Nuance is merely pulling back from being overvalued. Siri was released in 2011, which catalyzed the move toward virtual personal assistants that all the major tech players are embracing. That brought Nuance some welcome attention, since its voice-recognition technology was the backbone of many of these services.

However, the risk here was that all that attention could translate into hype that economic realities couldn't sustain. Indeed, Nuance's partnerships with major smartphone OEMs were shrouded in mystery, so investors didn't have much to go on.

That's why it's worth pointing out that Nuance's mobile and consumer segment hasn't grown much recently. On the contrary, mobile and consumer non-GAAP revenue in fiscal year 2014 was $441 million, down from $508 million in fiscal year 2012. Since virtual personal assistants haven't proven as "revolutionary" as some companies had hoped (even if they're becoming table stakes for platform operators), the initial hype has subsided -- bringing Nuance's valuation with it.

Where Nuance is now
The fact still stands that healthcare is Nuance's largest and most important business. This operating segment is marching steadily upward, bringing in $943 million in non-GAAP revenue last fiscal year. That's up from $669 million in non-GAAP revenue in fiscal year 2012.

The company has been working to transition toward recurring revenue sources, which now comprise two-thirds of sales. That's encouraging progress and evidence that Nuance can maintain growth. At a time when many tech companies are attempting to move toward subscription models, Nuance fits right in.

Nuance's aggressive acquisition strategy makes its GAAP financial results challenging, since it frequently reports heavy losses due to ongoing amortization and restructuring charges. Last quarter, the company posted a net loss of $50.5 million, or $0.16 per share. However, on a non-GAAP basis, net income was $82 million, or $0.25 per share.

This is also why it's important to look at Nuance's cash flow to judge how healthy the business is. Fortunately, Nuance's cash flow is strong. Operating cash flow jumped to $95.7 million last quarter, and free cash flow was $79 million. That puts Nuance's valuation at 14.7 times free cash flow, which is relatively low for its sector.

Where Nuance is going
Nuance remains uniquely positioned in both the healthcare and mobile markets, which comprise 70% of sales. As the healthcare sector continues to adopt transcription solutions (an admittedly slow process), Nuance's healthcare business will continue to thrive in the years ahead. At the same time, voice-controlled applications are on the rise, and Nuance's technology is frequently at the heart of those applications.

The company has had a tough few years, but investors with an appetite for risk should consider adding Nuance to their portfolios.

'경제이야기 > Stock' 카테고리의 다른 글

숫자분석의 달인 quantifiedalpha.com (0)	2015.05.13
19 stocks to buy now - CNNMoney (0)	2015.03.28
2015년 유가상승 가능성을 이용한 투자 idea (0)	2015.03.23
AA Alcoa 추천 (0)	2015.03.21
Investing for income 2014 August (0)	2015.03.19

Posted by 쁘레드

2015년 유가상승 가능성을 이용한 투자 idea

유가가 단기간 많이 하락했으니 당연히 다시 반등하리라 생각된다. 2015년 10% 정도 수익를 얻는 것을 쉬울거라고 생각된다. (이건 뭔 배짱???)

우선 연말 예상유가가 얼마나 될것인가 하는것이 문제인데, 2015년중에 죽어나가는 player가 분명이 생길것이고, 콧대높은 OPEC도 감산얘기가 없을수 없을테고 하니 $70 정도가 가능하지 않을까.

더 내려갈수 있는 여지는 전체적으로 공급이 줄지 않을수도 있고(이란, 러시아, 미국 쉐일오일 등) 미국이 금리를 올리면 dollar표시 유가는 내려갈 여지가 있고, 세계 경제가 slow해지면 결국 유가 수요도 줄수도 있는데...

아직 유가가 바닥이 아니라는데는 동의하지만 년말까지 지금보다 올라갈거라 생각하고 주식으로 투자처를 찾아보니. 처음 몇개는 유가연동하는 주식이나 ETF 펀드이고, 셋중에 한두개 투자하는 것은 좋을것 같고. 언제 들어가냐는 지금 들어가도 버틸수 있다면 손해보지 않을 확률이 더 높은데, 젤 좋은 순간은 공포가 엄습할때라고 생각들고요. 유가가 30불대로 떨어지고, 누가 죽어나가고, 어느나라가 default로 간다고 하고, 이럴때를 기다려야할듯.

PBR은 브라질 경제상황과 뇌물/회계 스캔들에 영향을 많이 미치고 있는데, 유가가 오르면 모른것을 상쇄하고도 남을만큼 오를수 있다고 보고 있어서 추의를 같이 보고 있고.

유가가 오르면 대체에너지주들도 동반상승할것으로 보고, 태양광 에너지주 몇개. LED의 최고 기술주 CREE도 넣어놓고 재는중.

Name	Symbol	Last price	Mkt cap	Avg vol	52wk high	52wk low	EPS	P/E	Beta	Beta(y)	Cur Ratio
ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS...	UCO	6.5	1.04B		40.17	5.89			2.33
Vanguard Energy ETF	VDE	108.48	3.80B		145.97141	101.33	27.28	3.98	1.3
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas...	XOP	48.19	1.46B		84.04	41.63	17.33	2.78	1.48
ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS...	UCO	6.5	1.04B		40.17	5.89			2.33
VelocityShares 3X Inverse	DWTI	149.45	244.35M		199.65	21.41			-3.63
VelocityShares 3X Long...	UWTI	2.07	966.17M		43.99	1.79			2.68
Petroleo Brasileiro...	PBR	5.59	37.35B	41.70M	20.94	4.9	0.94	5.97	1.88
Yingli Green Energy...	YGE	2.39	434.42M	1.39M	5.07	1.86	-1.66		2.19
Cree, Inc.	CREE	38.29	4.27B	1.41M	62.4	27.25	0.67	57.07	1.46
Hanwha Q Cells Co Ltd	HQCL	1.68	167.17M	413082	3.88	0.92	-1.25		2.87

저작자표시 비영리

'경제이야기 > Stock' 카테고리의 다른 글

19 stocks to buy now - CNNMoney (0)	2015.03.28
Should You Consider Nuance Communications? (0)	2015.03.24
AA Alcoa 추천 (0)	2015.03.21
Investing for income 2014 August (0)	2015.03.19
Crude oil 상승/하락에 베팅하기 (0)	2015.03.18

Posted by 쁘레드

AA Alcoa 추천

작년에 AA에서 쉽게 큰 수익을 봤었는데 요즘 속절없이 무너져서 아주 군침을 돌리며 바라보고 있습니다.

가장큰문제는 aluminum 가격이 고가대비 30%이상 급락한 영향이 큰것 같습니다.

To be updated

알루미늄 가격이 떨어진 이유와 전망
AA의 Aluminum 매출/순이익 대비 비율
Fundamental analysis
회사예상가치
경쟁자
최근 발표된 인수합병관련 영향
내부자 거래동향

-------------------------------

Today’s Trading

Previous close	12.96
Today’s open	13.02
Day’s range	12.90 - 13.09
Volume	38,762,284
Average volume (3 months)	21,945,226
Market cap	$15.9B
Dividend yield	0.93%

Data as of 4:00pm ET, 03/20/2015

Growth & Valuation

Earnings growth (last year)	--
Earnings growth (this year)	+20.88%
Earnings growth (next 5 years)	+10.00%
Revenue growth (last year)	+3.57%
P/E ratio	57.1
Price/Sales	0.77
Price/Book	1.29

Competitors

	Today’s change	Today’s % change
AAPRBAlcoa Inc	+0.13	+0.30%
AAPRAlcoa Inc	0.00	0.00%

Data as of 4:02pm ET, 03/20/2015

Financials

Next reporting date	April 9, 2015
EPS forecast (this quarter)	$0.25
Annual revenue (last year)	$23.9B
Annual profit (last year)	$268.0M
Net profit margin	1.12%

Profile

Sector

Non-Energy Minerals

Industry

Aluminum

Chairman &
Chief Executive Officer

Klaus-Christian Kleinfeld

Chief Financial Officer &
Executive Vice President

William F. Oplinger

Corporate headquarters

New York, New York

Forecasts

-------------------------------

Data provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday)⁵:	15.85B
Enterprise Value (Mar 21, 2015)³:	22.88B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):	61.76
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2016)¹:	9.90
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹:	1.05
Price/Sales (ttm):	0.66
Price/Book (mrq):	1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³:	0.96
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)⁶:	6.64

Financial Highlights

Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends:	Dec 31
Most Recent Quarter (mrq):	Dec 31, 2014

Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm):	1.12%
Operating Margin (ttm):	9.53%

Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm):	3.89%
Return on Equity (ttm):	1.25%

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm):	23.91B
Revenue Per Share (ttm):	20.57
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy):	14.20%
Gross Profit (ttm):	4.77B
EBITDA (ttm)⁶:	3.45B
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm):	247.00M
Diluted EPS (ttm):	0.21
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):	N/A

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq):	1.88B
Total Cash Per Share (mrq):	1.54
Total Debt (mrq):	8.85B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq):	59.84
Current Ratio (mrq):	1.49
Book Value Per Share (mrq):	10.07

Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm):	1.67B
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm):	369.12M

Trading Information

Stock Price History
Beta:	0.73
52-Week Change³:	7.99%
S&P500 52-Week Change³:	13.49%
52-Week High (Nov 21, 2014)³:	17.75
52-Week Low (Mar 26, 2014)³:	11.85
50-Day Moving Average³:	14.96
200-Day Moving Average³:	15.82

-------------------------------

Trefis Analysts estimate a price of $15.98 for Alcoa's stock, about 23% higher than the current market price. * Engineered Products constitute 38% of the Trefis price estimate for Alcoa's stock. * Primary Metals constitute 27% of the Trefis price estimate for Alcoa's stock. * Alumina constitutes 19% of the Trefis price estimate for Alcoa's stock

Analyst Research

More »

No Credit Suisse report available.

Thomson Reuters

Last Reported 3/20/15

S&P Capital IQ

Last Reported 3/14/15

SmartConsensus Report

Last Reported 03/20/2015

Technical Research

Market Edge Second Opinion

Last Reported 3/13/15

Technical Analysis »

Shareholder Equity

Shares Outstanding	1.2 B
Institutional Ownership	63.47%
Number of Floating Shares	1.2 B
Short Interest as % of Float	2.50%

Financial Strength (MRQ)

Quick Ratio	0.94x
Current Ratio	1.49x
Debt/Equity	0.72x
Debt/Assets	0.24x

AA's debt to equity ratio indicates that it has been more aggressive with using debt to finance growth than 63% of its peers in the Metal Mining industry. The resultant effect on earnings would be more volatile than related companies.

Valuation (MRQ)

Price/Earnings (TTM)	63.75x
Price/Sales (TTM)	0.66x
Price/Book	1.29x
Price/Cash Flow	9.18x

AA's P/E Ratio is greater than 91% of other companies in the Metal Mining industry. This typically means that investors are willing to pay more for its level of earnings relative to future growth.

Profitability (TTM)

Gross Margin	19.99%
Operating Margin	4.30%
EBITDA Margin	14.93%
Net Profit Margin	0.74%

AA's Gross Margin is comparable to other companies in the Metal Mining industry, which means it has relatively the same amount of cash to spend on business operations as its peers. As indicated by the Operating Margin, AA controls its costs and expenses better than 69% of its peers.

Management Effectiveness (TTM)

Return on Assets	0.48%
Return on Equity	2.17%
Return on Inves. Capital	0.63%

The Return on Equity for AA shows that it is able to reinvest its earnings more efficiently than 75% of its competitors in the Metal Mining industry. Typically, companies that have higher return on equity values are more attractive to investors.

Growth Rate (TTM)

Earnings Per Share	109.5
Sales	3.8
Dividend (MRQ)	0.0

AA's EPS Growth Rate is greater than 92% of its peers in the Metal Mining industry.

Dividend (TTM)

Dividend Yield	0.93%
Payout Ratio	56.68%
Annual Dividend	0.12

AA's dividend yield is less than 94% of other companies in the Metal Mining industry. As indicated by the payout ratio, AA's earnings support the dividend payouts as well as others in the group.

Operating Ratios (TTM)

Asset Turnover	0.65%
Inventory Turnover	6.61%
Receivables Turnover	18.29%
Effective Tax Rate	64.39%

------------------------------------

'경제이야기 > Stock' 카테고리의 다른 글

Should You Consider Nuance Communications? (0)	2015.03.24
2015년 유가상승 가능성을 이용한 투자 idea (0)	2015.03.23
Investing for income 2014 August (0)	2015.03.19
Crude oil 상승/하락에 베팅하기 (0)	2015.03.18
F How Ford And GM Compare In China (0)	2015.03.17

Posted by 쁘레드

Investing for income 2014 August

좋은 배당주 한둘정도 추가해주면 꾸준히 income도 되고 될성부릇한(?) 놈은 가격까지 상승하니 꿩먹고 알먹고. 내 투자 성향상 배당주는 썩 별로지만 10년만 지나도 많은 자산을 배당주에 넣을 확률은 높다.

Kiplinger's에서 추천하는 주식과 펀드는 상당히 믿을 만하다. 잡지를 구독하면 한두개씩 보내주는데, 돈주고 보기는 아깝지만 상당히 유용하다.

'경제이야기 > Stock' 카테고리의 다른 글

2015년 유가상승 가능성을 이용한 투자 idea (0)	2015.03.23
AA Alcoa 추천 (0)	2015.03.21
Crude oil 상승/하락에 베팅하기 (0)	2015.03.18
F How Ford And GM Compare In China (0)	2015.03.17
AA This Is Not The Same Alcoa (0)	2015.03.17

Posted by 쁘레드

Crude oil 상승/하락에 베팅하기

Margin계좌를 만드어서 option을 하는것이 좋겠지만, 주식을 사고 팔듯이 쉽게(???) 할수 있는 방법이 많이 있습니다. 제가 지난 경제위기때 은행주 오르고 내림에 배팅해 본 결과 절대로 초보는 하지 말아야 겠구나 몸소 체험했습니다. 주식도 크게보면 도박인데, 옵션으로 갈수록 이건 완전도박. 대박도 쪽박도 이상하지 않음.

----------------------

3x Bear(Inverse) : DWTI

3x BULL(Long) : UWTI

2x Long(Bull) : UCO

저작자표시 비영리

'경제이야기 > Stock' 카테고리의 다른 글

AA Alcoa 추천 (0)	2015.03.21
Investing for income 2014 August (0)	2015.03.19
F How Ford And GM Compare In China (0)	2015.03.17
AA This Is Not The Same Alcoa (0)	2015.03.17
F Ford Motor Could Be Worth Up To $37 Per Share (0)	2015.03.17

Posted by 쁘레드

F How Ford And GM Compare In China

GM이 미리 중국에 진출에서 좋은 성과를 낸것은 잘한것 같다. Ford도 최근에 높은 성장률을 보이고 있으니 이것도 다행이고. 둘 비교는 의미가 크다.

이번년 중국의 성장률이 7%도 어려울듯 한데, 자동차 산업은 어떨지 또 궁금. 내수를 살릴 생각이면 중국내 자동차 판매에 도움이 되겠지만, 공해문제 해소에 초점을 마추면 자동차 판매는 쉽지 않을것 같고.

------------------------

How Ford And GM Compare In China

Mar. 15, 2015 6:05 AM ET | 24 comments | About: General Motors Company (GM), F

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

Summary

Ford is behind GM in China, although recent sales figures seem to favor the former.
In absolute numbers, GM remains ahead of Ford and gives it a big advantage.
GM shouldn't take its current position for granted because things can always change.

Ford (NYSE:F) and GM (NYSE:GM) are the two most prominent car manufacturers from the United States. Throughout their long history together, they have competed with one another and the two can be considered rivals. Neither of the two companies has a clear advantage over the other to be number one in the United States. They go back and forth as time goes by.

With that said, it can be argued that Ford has been the better of the two in recent years. For instance, while GM needed a massive government bailout to recover from bankruptcy at the height of the Financial Crisis in 2008/2009, Ford did much better and was able to keep its problems more or less under control.

However, the one consistent and constant advantage that GM has had over Ford is in the Chinese market. In China, GM is way ahead of Ford by a huge margin. Some of GM's brands such as Buick are doing very well there, even though they may be struggling elsewhere. That helps illustrate the level of success GM has managed to achieve in China.

The trend in China may be changing in favor of Ford

GM	Unit Sales	% Change (Y/Y)
January 2015	339,781	-2.4
February 2015	261,072	1.3

Source: GM releases

Ford	Unit Sales	% Change (Y/Y)
January 2015	112,599	19
February 2015	79,384	8.7

Source: Ford releases

Recent sales figures from GM and Ford in collaboration with their Chinese partners seem to suggest that this advantage may be slipping. In fact, GMsales in China are actually down in comparison to the previous year. Ford, on the other hand, is doing much better with significant sales increases. Some would therefore argue that Ford is gaining on GM in a market where it has long trailed.

Ford versus GM in China

The latest sales figures come on the heels of other reports which indicate that Ford increased sales last year by over 19 percent in China. GM also did well with a 12 percent increase, but that's substantially below that of Ford. The tables below show the performance of GM and Ford over the last several years.

Furthermore, Ford has beaten GM for the last three years using this metric. You would have to go all the way back to 2011 for the last time that GM was able to post a higher number than Ford. It would seem that a pattern is beginning to appear.

GM	Unit Sales	Unit Increase	% Increase
2009	1,826,424
2010	2,351,610	525,186	28.8
2011	2,547,171	195,561	8.3
2012	2,836,128	288,957	11.3
2013	3,160,377	324,249	11.4
2014	3,539,970	379,593	12.0

Ford	Unit Sales	Unit Increase	% Increase
2009	440,619
2010	483,288	42,669	9.6
2011	519,390	36,102	7.4
2012	626,616	107,226	20.6
2013	935,812	309,196	49.3
2014	1,114,669	178,857	19.1

The market in China continues to grow

With China now being the largest market in terms of vehicles sold, it's important for automakers to do well there as best as they can. No car manufacturer can aspire to be number one globally without also having a strong position in China. Especially not with the Chinese market continuing to grow at a strong clip.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers ("CAAM") forecasts sales to grow by around 7 percent in 2015 to 25.1 million vehicles. That continues the steady expansion of the market as seen in recent years. The table below shows the total number of vehicles sold in the preceding years.

	Unit Sales (in millions)	% Increase
2009	13.64
2010	18.06	32.4
2011	18.5	2.4
2012	19.31	4.4
2013	21.99	13.9
2014	23.5	6.9

Source: CAAM

Is Ford really doing better than GM in China?

It's important to note that while Ford may be posting higher sales figures than GM in terms of percentages, its sales are coming off a much lower base. Therefore, GM sales may seem smaller because the base is so much bigger. Ford's increases in percentages may seem bigger, but they also translate into much smaller increases in absolute terms.

Taking a closer look at the sales statistics shows that while Ford may have increases sales last year by over 19 percent and GM by 12 percent, GM sold 379,593 more vehicles. Ford had 178,857 more vehicles. In other words, GM sales increase in absolute numbers is more than twice that of Ford, even though Ford increased its sales by a higher percentage.

Conclusion

Bottom line, GM is still comfortably ahead of Ford in China despite the progress Ford has made. Even though Ford last year managed to sell more than one million vehicles for the first time in China, GM managed to do that a long time ago and is now at more than 3.5 million vehicles. GM's unit sales are easily over three times that of Ford. China remains a strength of GM.

Granted, GM had a headstart because it entered the Chinese market before Ford did. GM first entered China in the early part of the twentieth century and re-entered the market in the mid nineties. Compared to Ford's greater reluctance, GM placed much stronger emphasis on China than Ford did.

The former is now reaping the benefits of its decision and Ford is forced to play catch up in a market that GM projects could grow to 35 million (passenger and commercial) vehicles by 2020. If this turns out to be accurate, GM will be in an excellent position to take advantage and eclipse the competition.

To Ford's credit, it has managed to make impressive strides even though it's behind. For instance, it has managed to beat Japanese manufacturers such as Toyota (NYSE:TM) and has now surpassed them in sales. The key is to keep up the effort and it's possible that for Ford the best is yet to come.

With all that said, GM should not become complacent even if it doesn't have to worry too much about Ford. Frequent recalls like you have now and other technical defects don't exactly help your reputation when you're selling a product.

GM therefore shouldn't take its current position for granted. It would not be the first time that an automaker lost its leading position. After all, just because you're ahead in the race doesn't mean you've also won the race. The race is far from over.

저작자표시 비영리

'경제이야기 > Stock' 카테고리의 다른 글

Investing for income 2014 August (0)	2015.03.19
Crude oil 상승/하락에 베팅하기 (0)	2015.03.18
AA This Is Not The Same Alcoa (0)	2015.03.17
F Ford Motor Could Be Worth Up To $37 Per Share (0)	2015.03.17
20150315 아주 관심있는 종목 리스트 (0)	2015.03.16

Posted by 쁘레드