벌써 내일 어닝발표가 있네요. 회사의 바램과는 다르게 알루미늄가격과 100% 싱크로율을 보여주는 알코아라서 어닝도 좋지않고 그리스나 중국저성장으로 전망도 좋지 못할것 같습니다.

작년에 좋은 수익률을 돌려줘서 좋아하는 주식인데... 년초까지 꿈의 주식이었는데 방향을 획돌렸네요.언제가 될지 모르겠지만 또 살것 같네요. 중국시장이 바닥을 치고 올라올때와 알루미늄 가격을 잘 지켜봐야 할듯.

예상대로 최근에 알루미늄 가격이 더 많이 떨어졌고, 앞으로도 더 떨어질 확률이 높을것 같네요.

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Alcoa Inc. Kicks Off Earnings Season: 2 Trades for AA Stock

AA stock bears smell blood in the water, but are they too late to the game?

Alcoa Inc. (AA) will kick off the unofficial start to third-quarter earnings season after the close of trading on Wednesday. The aluminum giant has been pressured this year by a strong U.S. dollar and slowing demand, forcing the company to trim high cost operations, sell low value assets, and focus on lower-cost production.

Despite these moves, AA stock bears smell blood in the water, but are they too late to the game?

By the numbers, Wall Street is looking for fiscal second-quarter earnings of 23 cents per share from Alcoa — up 28% from year-ago levels.  Revenue is seen arriving down 1% at $5.8 billion. However, whispers are swirling that Alcoa will miss earnings targets, with EarningsWhisper.com reporting a whisper number of just 21 cents.

Bearish sentiment has begun to take hold in the analyst community for AA stock. The last several moves within the community have been downgrades, resulting in eight “hold” or worse ratings and 10 “buys,” according to data from Thomson/First Call.  Meanwhile, the 12-month price target currently rests at $16 per share.

Pessimism is also swelling among short sellers. Specifically, the number of AA shares sold short surged by 23% in the most recent reporting period. As a result, some 72.5 million shares of AA stock, or nearly 6% of the stock’s total float, are now sold short.

But, judging from recent options activity, there may be a lack of conviction from the short-selling crowd.  Typically, short sellers will buy short-term call options as a way to hedge their bets, especially ahead of events such as earnings reports.

Along these lines, AA stock’s July/August put/call open interest ratio has fallen to a reading of 0.41, with calls more than doubling puts among options set to expire within the next two months. Taking a closer look at just July options, the put/call open interest ratio falls even further, arriving at 0.38.

 Overall, weekly Jul 10 series implieds are pricing in a potential post-earnings move of about 5% for AA stock. This places the upper bound at $11.54, while the lower bound lies at $10.46.  Historically, implieds seem a bit on the low side, meaning that AA option prices may be low at the moment.

Technically speaking, AA stock is trading deep in short-term oversold territory. The stock is currently perched just above its 2014 lows, which currently correspond with potential support from AA’s 200-week moving average. Despite the overwhelming negativity levied against AA, there is a possibility of a surprise post-earnings rally.

2 Trades for AA Stock

Call Spread: Pessimism toward an underperforming stock is largely par for the course, and AA stock has earned much of its negative reputation on the Street.  However, the recent selloff has placed AA in oversold territory, hinting that the stock’s recent losses may be overdone.  As such, there is the possibility of a snap-back rally for AA following this week’s earnings report, especially if there are any positive nuggets to be gleaned.

As such, traders wanting to take a chance on an AA rally might want to consider a Jul $11/$12 bull call spread.  At last check, this spread was offered at 31 cents, or $31 per pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $11.31, while a maximum profit of 69 cents, or $69 per pair of contracts, is possible if AA stock closes at or above $12 when July options expire.

Straddle: Alternately, traders with a higher risk tolerance might want to take advantage of this high volatility situation and enter a straddle. A straddle involves the simultaneous purchase of an at-the-money call and an at-the-money put in an attempt to take advantage of a greater than expected move from the underlying stock.

By employing a straddle on AA stock, you are likely betting that the company is going to either handily beat earnings expectations, resulting in a reversal of sentiment and a rush in buying activity, or confirm the Street’s bearish bias, resulting in a flood of sell-on-the-news activity. At last check, the AA Jul 11 straddle was offered at 68 cents, or $68 per pair of contracts. Breakeven for this trade lies at $11.68 on the upside and at $10.32 on the downside.

http://investorplace.com/2015/07/alcoa-inc-kicks-off-earnings-season-2-trades-aa-stock/#.VZzD9DGJugs

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Aluminum Pricing

Aluminum has diverse applications in industry. It is an important input in the packaging, aerospace, automotive, construction, commercial transportation, power generation, capital goods, and consumer durables industries. Thus, demand for aluminum is broadly correlated with industrial growth. Economic weakness in Europe and slowing Chinese growth have contributed to the weakness in aluminum demand, and consequently prices, over the last few quarters. ^[1] China, the world’s largest consumer of aluminum, is expected to witness a slowdown in GDP growth to 6.8% and 6.3% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, from 7.4% in 2014. ^[2]

On the supply side, production capacity has not been reduced corresponding to the weakness in demand over the last few quarters. Persistently high aluminum inventory levels relative to demand have kept LME aluminum prices depressed. This inventory was built up partially as a result of aluminum being tied up in financing deals, which were made possible due to low interest rates. ^[3] Despite inventories being at a record highs, market forces failed to rationalize supply through the shutdown of smelting capacity. Though global aluminum majors like Alcoa and Rusal did make significant smelting capacity cuts, the same was not true of Chinese companies. This was primarily due to state intervention in the form of provisions of subsidies or renegotiated power contracts to smelters, which serve as a disincentive to cut production. China accounts for around half of the world’s aluminum production, and the expansion in production by Chinese producers has more than made up for capacity cuts by global majors. ^[4] This oversupply situation is expected to keep aluminum prices depressed.

As a result of the fall in LME prices, regional aluminum prices in China are trading below the costs of production of a majority of Chinese domestic smelters. ^[5] However, Chinese aluminum producers were boosted by a recent decision of the Chinese government to provide tax breaks and subsidized power to domestic aluminum smelters. ^[6] In addition, the Chinese government also reduced export taxes on Chinese exports of the metal earlier in the year. ^[7] A combination of these factors is likely to lead to an increase in Chinese production and exports, which could further worsen the gap between supply and demand, resulting in weak global aluminum prices. This is reflected in the trajectory of London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices so far this year.

LME aluminum prices averaged roughly $1,800 per ton over the course of the second quarter in 2014. These prices averaged close to $1,750 per ton in Q2 2015. ^[8]  Lower aluminum prices are likely to weigh on the company’s results, particularly those of the Primary Aluminum and Alumina business segments.

http://www.trefis.com/stock/aa/articles/303936/alcoa-q2-earnings-preview-productivity-improvements-to-offset-impact-of-weak-aluminum-pricing/2015-07-06

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Aluminum Bear Market Piles Pressure on World’s Biggest Smelters

Record Supply

The trend echoes a similar one in steel in the second half of last year, when Chinese exports of excess supplies sent prices tumbling 30 percent. The nation’s aluminum industry quadrupled in the past decade with smelters churning out record amounts of the metal used in everything from packaging to car bumpers.

Aluminum for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.7 percent on Tuesday to $1,666 a metric ton, entering a bear market. The metal price extended the decline to $1,631.50 on Wednesday. Prices may trade closer to $1,500 a ton by the end of the year, the lowest since 2009, amid record inventories worldwide, according to Colin Hamilton, London-based head of commodities research at Macquarie.

About 20 percent of smelters outside China are losing money at current prices, according to Standard Chartered Plc.

Supply Forecast

Global supplies will exceed demand by 800,000 tons this year, with the surplus tripling from 2014, according to Societe Generale SA. While global aluminum demand is poised to rise by the most among the six main industrial metals, Chinese production is already up 16 percent this year and expected to grow further, according to Macquarie.

Stockpiles of the metal are also easier to obtain after the London Metal Exchange took steps to cut lengthy wait times at its warehouse locations. The backlogs that stretched to almost two years had boosted surcharges added to the exchange benchmark to a record last year, helping producers’ profits.

Moscow-based Rusal, the world’s largest producer, forecasts that China will increase exports of partly processed aluminum by 20 percent, the company said June 25. It will decide whether to cut capacity in the third quarter. Shares of Rusal have dropped 40 percent in Hong Kong trading this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/aluminum-bear-market-piles-pressure-on-world-s-biggest-smelters

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Aluminum Glut Dents Alcoa’s Prospects

Alcoa shareholders should pay close attention to what happens in Beijing.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/aluminum-glut-dents-alcoas-prospects-1436287094

퀄컴에 대한 Sell과 Buy의 의견이 둘다 있어서 공유합니다. 어느 주식이든 둘다 있을수 밖에 없고 판단은 각자 알아서 하는것이지요. 저는 어느쪽일까요.

팔자에 대한 생각은 인텔과 비교했을때 프리미움이 붙어있다고 보여지는데 이제는 그럴 만한 이유가 없다고 지적합니다. 성장도 못하고 있고 심지어 margin까지급격히 줄고 있습니다. 그리고 4G, 5G로 갈수록 license 비율이 떨어져서 수익이 줄거라 생각하고, 다른 chipset업체와의 경쟁이 치열해 지기때문에 어려울 것이라고 합니다.

사자에 대한 생각은 smartphone 시장이 계속 grow하고 있고, 로얄티 비즈니스가 아주 잘되고 있다. 그리고... 읽어봐도 납득할만한 다른 이유는 못찾겠네요. ^^

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Why I'm Selling Qualcomm

This Fool has held Qualcomm for over two years, and the mobile chip giant has lagged the broader market for the whole time. Is it time to move on?

On valuation
In some ways, Qualcomm represents the Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) of the mobile world. It was quite a symbolic milestone when Qualcomm's market cap overtook Intel's for the first time, although Intel has since reclaimed a higher valuation. However, if we look at how the two companies stack up right now, Qualcomm's premium valuation relative to Intel may not be fully justified.

TTM = TRAILING 12 MONTHS. SOURCE: REUTERS.

Qualcomm trades at a premium relative to Intel's valuation metrics, yet fundamental metrics related to growth and profitability don't do much to justify the relative premium.

On royalties
Qualcomm has a lock on 3G technologies, but Qualcomm has a relatively weaker hold on 4G technologies. To be clear, Qualcomm still enjoys its fair share of royalties, but its average royalty rate is undeniably on the decline. Its average royalty rate has fallen from an estimated 4.3% in 2008 to 3.2% in 2013.

There are a couple of other royalty headwinds going forward. Since Qualcomm's royalty depends on the prices of phones, the continued hardware commoditization that's taking place will hurt Qualcomm's piece of the action. Additionally, Qualcomm has been having trouble collecting its royalties in China, believing that local OEMs were underreporting their shipments in order to skirt paying up.

None of this is to say that Qualcomm's royalty business is falling apart; the licensing business saw revenue jump 17% last quarter. Rather, my concern is just that there are some noteworthy challenges going forward.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/06/08/why-im-selling-qualcomm.aspx?source=iaasitlnk0000003

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Why I More Than Doubled My Qualcomm, Inc. Holdings

A cheap stock with improving prospects? Count me in.

What could make the stock rise?
I view Qualcomm's technology licensing business as a stable "cash cow". The business' revenue is more or less a function of the royalty rate that Qualcomm is able to command and "total reported device sales." The smartphone market is growing, and it seems as though cellular technologies could become more prominent in other areas of computing, spanning from notebook PCs to the Internet of Things.

That's a pretty solid foundation for the company's "cash cow" wireless technology licensing business for years to come.

The chip business, on the other hand, is a bit trickier. MediaTek isn't going away, Samsung's own applications processors seem to be improving, and if Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) ever gets its act together in smartphones, the competitive environment for merchant smartphone silicon will become fiercer.

If Qualcomm can stay ahead of the competition when all is said and done, however -- and I believe Qualcomm's technology is best in class -- the company should retain solid market share, and should benefit from industrywide smartphone unit growth.

Qualcomm also has ambitions to compete outside of the traditional smartphone chip market and is aiming to attack the data center, where unit volumes are lower but average selling prices (and gross profit margins) are higher. Whether Qualcomm will ultimately be successful in leveraging its mobile technology in servers remains to be seen, as competing against Intel will be quite tough.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/06/17/why-i-more-than-doubled-my-qualcomm-inc-holdings.aspx

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http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=QCOM

이번분기 다음분기 이 가치를 유지할수 있을지가 관건일것 같습니다.

Growth & Valuation

Financials

좋은점

• 단타가 아니라 가치투자를 하고 있다는 점. 가치를 평가하는 기준과 고르는 원칙이 나랑 비슷함.  ^^
• 처음에 학자에서 투자자로 변신할때 책 200권을 읽고 시작했다는 점. 200권을 읽고 그 내용을 분류하고 이해하는데 탁월하셨을 거라 생각함
• 잔고는 잔고일뿐 카이스트 교수직도 열심히 하고 있다는 점. "내가 가진 주식은 공장이다. 공장을 팔아 소비하는 사장이 없는것 처럼"
• 다른 사람이 자기를 따라가하가는 망한다는 것을 알고 있는점
• 비교적 겸손하신점

별로인점

• 돈을 빌려서 주식을 한것
• 나도 외제차 한번 타봐야지 하는 마음으로 주식을 시작한점
• 자신의 투자 성공과 실패 분석에서 가장 중요한 운을 모르고 있다는 점

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"주식 무조건 나 따라만 사면 망합니다"

[경제와 사람] 4억을 10년새 500억 만든 김봉수 카이스트 화학과 교수

손 대는 종목마다 대박 행진, 지분 보유 공시하면 주가 들썩

감성보다 합리적인 원칙 따르고 기업가치 높은 종목 장기 보유해야

500억 굴려도 점심은 콩나물국밥, 카이스트의 현인이 돼라 하더군요

http://www.hankookilbo.com/v/6985aa894101442e98b7852b419412e9

https://jmagazine.joins.com/forbes/view/306194

김봉수 카이스트 화학과 교수 - 투자 수익률 300% 한국판 워런 버핏 

ADR에 대해서 항상 궁금했는데 HQCL이 ADR Ratio변경에 따른 폭락세라 ADR에 대해서 공부할수 있는 좋은 기회가 됐다. ADR은 환률에 대한 비율은 없지만 본진 주식과 해외에 다시 상장된 주식사이에 비율이 있었던것이군.

ADR : 본진 = 1: 5 에서 1:50 으로 바꾼다고 하는데. 그럼 ADR share가 10배나 더 상승하는 주식병합효과가 있는데 왜 폭락하는걸까? 페니주식을 벗어나기 위한 몸부림인데 이래도 더 떨어질 여지까지 준다고 생각하는걸까? 꼼수는 응징한다는 결과일까ㅎㅎㅎ

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http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hanwha-q-cells-announces-ads-ratio-change-300091369.html

EOUL, South Korea, June 1, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Hanwha Q CELLS Co., Ltd. (the "Company," or "Hanwha Q CELLS"), one of the world's largest photovoltaic manufacturers of high-quality, high-efficiency solar modules, today announced that it will change the ratio of its American Depositary Shares ("ADSs") to ordinary shares from one (1) ADS representing five (5) ordinary shares to one (1) ADS representing fifty (50) ordinary shares, effective on June 15, 2015.

Each shareholder of record at the close of business on June 12, 2015 will be required to exchange every ten (10) ADSs then held for one (1) new ADS. The effect on the ADS price will take place on June 15, 2015.

For Hanwha Q CELLS's ADS holders, this ratio change will have the same effect as a one-for-ten reverse ADS split. There will be no change to Hanwha Q CELLS's underlying ordinary shares. ADS holders will be required to surrender their existing ADSs in exchange for new ADSs of the Company. The Company's Depositary, The Bank of New York Mellon, will provide further details on June 1, 2015to NASDAQ and other market participants.

About Hanwha Q CELLS

In February 2015 Hanwha Q CELLS Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: HQCL) emerged as a new global solar power leader from combining two of the world´s most recognized photovoltaic manufacturers, Hanwha SolarOne and Hanwha Q CELLS Investment. The combined company is listed on NASDAQ under the trading symbol of HQCL. It is headquartered in Seoul, South Korea, (Global Executive Headquarters) and Thalheim, Germany (Technology & Innovation Headquarters) and is the world's largest solar cell manufacturer as well as one of the largest photovoltaic module manufacturers. Due to its diverse international footprint including facilities in China,Malaysia, and South Korea, Hanwha Q CELLS is in a unique position to flexibly address all global markets, even ones with import tariffs, such as the United States and the European Union. Based on its well respected "Engineered in Germany" technology, innovation and quality, Hanwha Q CELLS offers the full spectrum of photovoltaic products, applications and solutions, from modules to kits to systems to large scale solar power plants. Through its growing global business network spanning Europe, North America, Asia,South America, Africa and the Middle East, the company provides excellent services and long-term partnership to its customers in the utility, commercial, government and residential markets. Hanwha Q CELLS is a flagship company of Hanwha Group, a FORTUNE Global 500 firm and a Top-Ten business enterprise in South Korea. For more information, visit: http://investors.hanwha-qcells.com

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한화, 충북에 태양광 공장 건설…3600억 투자

2015년 06월 01일 (월) 이헌규 기자  sniper@constimes.co.kr

▲ 한화큐셀코리아의 진천 1.5GW 셀 공장 조감도 (건설타임즈) 이헌규 기자= 한화그룹이 충북 진천과 음성에 대규모 태양광 셀 공장을 새로 짓고 모듈 공장을 증설한다. 한화큐셀코리아(대표이사 김승모)는 충북 진천군에 1.5GW 규모의 셀 공장을 짓기로 확정했다고 1일 밝혔다. 한화큐셀은 총 3500억원을 투자한다. 한화큐셀(대표이사 남성우)은 충북 음성군에 이미 건립한 250㎿ 규모의 모듈 공장에다 250㎿ 규모의 모듈 공장을 추가로 건설, 총 500㎿ 규모의 라인을 가동하기로 했다. 모듈 라인에는 100억원이 투자된다. 셀 공장은 올해 말 준공을 목표로 하며, 증설되는 모듈 공장은 9월 준공을 예상한다. 한화큐셀이 지난해 말 착공한 음성 모듈 공장은 6월 중 상업생산에 들어간다. 1.5GW 셀 공장과 500㎿ 모듈 공장이 본격 가동되면 이 지역의 고용창출 효과만 950여명에 이를 것으로 예상된다. 한화큐셀코리아가 1.5GW의 셀 공장을 준공하면 한화그룹은 한화큐셀의 3.7GW 셀 공장에 더해 총 5.2GW 규모의 셀 양산능력을 갖추게 된다. 한화큐셀은 지난 4월 미국 2위 전력회사 넥스트에라 에너지(NextEra Energy)에 올해 4분기부터 2016년 말까지 총 1.5GW 규모(약 1조원 추정)의 모듈을 공급하는 계약을 체결했다. 태양광 업계 사상 최대 규모다. 한화는 이 계약과 추가 수주, 다운스트림 프로젝트 물량 확대에 따른 수요에 대응하고자 국내에 대규모 셀·모듈 공장을 짓기로 한 것이다.

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http://www.investopedia.com/university/adr/

American depositary receipts (ADRs)

[이전 날짜는 20150315 였습니다.]

그동안 아주 관심있는 종목이 변하진 않았네요. 다만 투자중인 Nuance가 좋은 성적을 내고 있어서 좋고, QCOM은 좋은 가격에 매각을 잘 해서 좋고요. Delta(DAL)는 손실구간으로 들어갔네요. 아마도 물타기 좀 해야할것 같고요. Ford가 어닝을 들으며 6개월간 이거 큰일인데 하는 마음이었는데 어떻게 할 좋은 방도가 생각이 안나네요. 계속 배당이라도 나와주니까 받아먹으며 버텨야지요.

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3/15일 대비 수익율인데, 어마어마한 상승을 보여주는 종목이 많네요. 그남아 뉴앙스라도 들고 있다는데에 의의를 둬야할듯. 가진 종목중에 마이너스도 있고요. 헐~

델타 에어라인, Delta Airlines 에 투자하고 있습니다. 지금부터 여름까지 다시 기름값이 낮아질것으로 예상하고 있는데 아주 좋은 투자처가 될것 같습니다. 차트상으로도 특이하게 주기를 가지고 움직이는것이 보이는데 앞으로 다시 상승할 가능성도 높아보입니다. fundamental은 좋아지고 있는데 단기간 급락한 점도 좋게보는 이유중에 하나입니다.

지난주에 폭락한 이유를 찾아보면, 별다른 유가하락에도 그만큼 성장을 못하고 있다는 점이 있습니다.

Wall Street isn't happy with the airline industry.

After three years of generally steady gains, industry shares tumbled last week, reflecting concerns over pricing and capacity. Airline shares fell 5% to 10% and about $12 billion in market capitalization was destroyed.

Delta CEO Richard Anderson responded, "I think you are in an area that is in some respects not appropriate for an earnings call. But I will just say this: Look at our results. I don't think there is a more disciplined approach to the deployment of capital in this industry anywhere in the world."

Recently, it seems, Delta has slowed its Seattle growth. At the same conference where Romo defended Southwest's Love Field growth, Alaska CEO Brad Tilden said, "It looks like the first quarter is the high water mark in terms of (Delta) capacity adds ... it feels to us like things are settling down a bit." If this fight is over, it seems to have turned out that Seattle is big enough for two profitable airlines to operate successful hubs -- not exactly what Wall Street anticipated. 

-----------------------------------

-----------------------------------

KEY STATISTICS

Industry Range: Low      High Mouseover quintile for more detail

 Reuters Investment Profile Report

 

SHAREHOLDER EQUITY

Shares Outstanding	816.3 M
Institutional Ownership	83.05%
Number of Floating Shares	813.8 M
Short Interest as % of Float	2.26%

FINANCIAL STRENGTH (MRQ)

Quick Ratio	0.66x
Current Ratio	0.71x
Debt/Equity	1.06x
Debt/Assets	0.18x

DAL's debt to equity ratio indicates that it has been less aggressive with using debt to finance growth than 68% of its peers in the Airline industry. The resultant effect on earnings would be less volatile than related companies.

VALUATION (MRQ)

Price/Earnings (TTM)	30.35x
Price/Sales (TTM)	0.86x
Price/Book	3.87x
Price/Cash Flow	7.18x

DAL's P/E Ratio is greater than 91% of other companies in the Airline industry. This typically means that investors are willing to pay more for its level of earnings relative to future growth.

PROFITABILITY (TTM)

Gross Margin	41.55%
Operating Margin	6.70%
EBITDA Margin	9.15%
Net Profit Margin	2.92%

DAL's Gross Margin is more than 69% of other companies in the Airline industry, which means it has more cash to spend on business operations as compared to its peers. As indicated by the Operating Margin, DAL controls its costs and expenses as well as its peers.

MANAGEMENT EFFECTIVENESS (TTM)

Return on Assets	2.25%
Return on Equity	11.52%
Return on Inves. Capital	3.24%

The Return on Equity for DAL shows that it is able to reinvest its earnings less efficiently than 61% of its competitors in the Airline industry. Typically, companies that have lower return on equity values are less attractive to investors.

GROWTH RATE (TTM)

Earnings Per Share	-88.7
Sales	6.9
Dividend (MRQ)	150.0

DAL's EPS Growth Rate is less than 84% of its peers in the Airline industry.

DIVIDEND (TTM)

Dividend Yield	0.84%
Payout Ratio	23.15%
Annual Dividend	0.33

DAL's dividend yield is less than 72% of other companies in the Airline industry. As indicated by the payout ratio, DAL's earnings support the dividend payouts as well as others in the group.

OPERATING RATIOS (TTM)

Asset Turnover	0.77%
Inventory Turnover	27.29%
Receivables Turnover	19.92%
Effective Tax Rate	38.01%

These ratios give an indicator of efficiency (ability to move inventory and generate sales) within a company, particularly ones with tangible goods (i.e. automotive, computer hardware) as compared to its peers.

COMPANY OFFICERS

Non-Executive Chairman	Daniel A. Carp
President	Edward H. Bastian
Chief Executive Officer	Richard H. Anderson
Non-Executive Vice Chairman	Roy J. Bostock
Chief Financial Officer	Paul A. Jacobson
Chief Operating Officer	Wayne Gilbert. West
Executive Vice President	Joanne D. Smith
Executive Vice President	Glen W. Hauenstein
Executive Vice President	Richard Ben. Hirst

COMPANY CONTACT

Employees	81,055
Headquarters	1030 Delta Blvd ATLANTA, GA 30354-1989
Phone	404-715-2600
Fax	302-636-5454
Web Address http://www.delta.com/

 

-----------------------------------

BALANCE SHEET

• Quarterly
 
• Annual

	5 yr Trend	2010 12/31/10	2011 12/31/11	2012 12/31/12	2013 12/31/13	2014 12/31/14

ASSETS

Cash & Equivalents		2,892	2,657	2,416	2,844	2,088
Short Term Investments		718	958	958	959	1,217
Cash and Short Term Inv		3,610	3,615	3,374	3,803	3,305
Trade Accts Recvble, Gross		1,496	1,596	1,729	1,632	2,318
Prov. for Doubtful Accts		(40)	(33)	(36)	(23)	(21)
Trade Accts Recvble, Net		1,456	1,563	1,693	1,609	2,297
Other Receivables		--	--	--	3	925
Total Receivables, Net		1,456	1,563	1,693	1,612	3,222
Invent. - Raw Materials		422	468	1,150	1,181	979
Inventories - Other		(104)	(101)	(127)	(118)	(127)
Total Inventory		318	367	1,023	1,063	852
Prepaid Expenses		1,159	1,418	1,344	852	733
Restricted Cash - Current		409	305	375	--	--
Deferred Income Tax		355	461	463	1,736	3,275
Other Current Assets		--	--	--	585	1,078
Other Curr. Assets, Total		764	766	838	2,321	4,353
Total Current Assets		7,307	7,729	8,272	9,651	12,465
Machinery/Equipment		20,312	21,001	21,481	23,373	24,313
Construction in Progress		48	77	253	381	617
Other Prop./Plant/Equip.		4,111	4,617	5,635	5,892	6,339
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Gross		24,471	25,695	27,369	29,646	31,269
Accumulated Depreciation		(4,164)	(5,472)	(6,656)	(7,792)	(9,340)
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Net		20,307	20,223	20,713	21,854	21,929
Goodwill, Net		9,794	9,794	9,794	9,794	9,794
Intangibles, Gross		5,279	5,351	5,349	5,396	5,396
Accum. Intangible Amort.		(530)	(600)	(670)	(738)	(793)
Intangibles, Net		4,749	4,751	4,679	4,658	4,603
Other Long Term Assets		1,031	1,002	1,092	1,303	1,010
Total Assets		43,188	43,499	44,550	52,252	54,121

LIABILITIES

Accounts Payable		1,713	1,600	2,293	2,300	2,622
Accrued Expenses		2,024	3,234	2,808	4,176	4,393
Notes Payable/ST Debt		0	0	0	0	0
Curr. Port. LT Dbt/Cap Ls.		2,073	1,944	1,627	1,547	1,216
Customer Advances		1,690	1,849	1,806	1,861	1,580
Income Taxes Payable		579	594	585	--	--
Other Payables		--	--	455	--	--
Other Current Liabilities		3,306	3,480	3,696	4,268	7,068
Other Curr. Lblts, Total		5,575	5,923	6,542	6,129	8,648
Total Current Liabilities		11,385	12,701	13,270	14,152	16,879
Total Long Term Debt		13,179	11,847	11,082	9,795	8,561
Total Debt		15,252	13,791	12,709	11,342	9,777
Deferred Income Tax		1,924	2,028	2,047	--	--
Pension Benefits - Underfunded		11,493	14,200	16,005	12,392	15,138
Other LT Liabilities		4,310	4,119	4,277	4,270	4,730
Other Liabilities, Total		15,803	18,319	20,282	16,662	19,868
Total Liabilities		42,291	44,895	46,681	40,609	45,308

SHAREHOLDER EQUITY

Common Stock		0	0	--	0	0
Additional Paid-In Capital		13,926	13,999	14,069	13,982	12,981
Ret. Earn.(Accum. Deficit)		(9,252)	(8,398)	(7,389)	3,049	3,456
Treasury Stock - Common		(199)	(231)	(234)	(258)	(313)
Unrealized Gain (Loss)		(3,578)	(6,766)	(8,577)	(26)	(16)
Min. Pension Lblty Adj.		--	--	--	(5,323)	(7,517)
Other Comprehensive Income		--	--	--	219	222
Other Equity, Total		--	--	--	(5,104)	(7,295)
Total Equity		897	(1,396)	(2,131)	11,643	8,813
Total Liabilities & Shareholders� Equity		43,188	43,499	44,550	52,252	54,121
Ttl Comm. Shares Outs.		835	845	851	851	825
Trsy. Shrs-Comm. Primary Iss.		13	16	16	18	20

() = Negative Value
Values are displayed in Millions

-----------------------------------

INCOME STATEMENT

• Quarterly
 
• Annual

	5 yr Trend	2010 12/31/10	2011 12/31/11	2012 12/31/12	2013 12/31/13	2014 12/31/14

REVENUE AND GROSS PROFIT

Total Revenue

31,755

35,115

36,670

37,773

40,362

OPERATING EXPENSES

Cost of Revenue, Total		16,971	20,609	21,386	20,755	25,080
Selling/Gen/Admin Expense		1,896	1,980	1,862	1,812	1,933
Labor & Related Expense		6,751	6,894	7,266	7,720	8,120
Sell/Gen/AdminExpenses,Tot		8,647	8,874	9,128	9,532	10,053
Depreciation/Amortization		1,511	1,523	1,565	1,658	1,771
Inter/Invest Inc, Operating		--	--	--	--	(2,346)
Restructuring Charge		450	242	452	402	716
Other Unusual Expnse (In)		391	68	118	0	268
Unusual Expense (Income)		841	310	570	402	984
Other Operat Expse, Total		1,959	1,892	1,964	2,026	2,882
Total Operating Expense		29,929	33,208	34,613	34,373	38,424
Operating Income		1,826	1,907	2,057	3,400	1,938

NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSES

Inter Expse,Net Non-Operat		(1,220)	(193)	(193)	(154)	--
Inter/Invest Inc, Non-Oper		35	--	--	--	--
Inter Inc(Exp),Net Non-Oper		--	(901)	(812)	(698)	(650)
Other, Net		(33)	(44)	(27)	(21)	(216)
Income Before Tax		608	769	1,025	2,527	1,072

INCOME TAXES

Income Tax - Total		15	(85)	16	(8,013)	413
Income After Tax		593	854	1,009	10,540	659

MINORITY INTEREST AND EQUITY IN AFFILIATES

Net Inc Before Extra Items		593	854	1,009	10,540	659
Net Income		593	854	1,009	10,540	659

ADJUSTMENTS TO NET INCOME

Income Available to Common Excl. Extra. Items		593	854	1,009	10,540	659
Income Available to Common Incl. Extra. Items		593	854	1,009	10,540	659

EPS RECONCILIATION

Basic/Primary Weighted Average Shares		834	838	845	849	836
Basic/Primary EPS Excl. Extra. Items		0.71	1.02	1.19	12.41	0.79
Basic/Primary EPS Incl. Extra. Items		0.71	1.02	1.19	12.41	0.79
Diluted Weighted Average Shares		843	844	850	858	845
Diluted EPS Excl. Extra. Items		0.70	1.01	1.19	12.28	0.78
Diluted EPS Incl. Extra. Items		0.70	1.01	1.19	12.28	0.78

COMMON STOCK DIVIDENDS

Div/Share-ComStockPrimIssue		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.30
Gross Divid - Common Stock		0	0	0	102	252

PRO FORMA INCOME

Pro Forma Net Income

--

--

--

--

--

SUPPLEMENTAL ITEMS

Interest Expense, Suppl		1,220	193	193	154	--
Depreciat/Amort, Suppl		1,511	1,523	1,495	1,588	1,716

NORMALIZED INCOME

Total Special Items		994	336	145	8,243	984
Normalized Income Before Tax		1,602	1,105	1,170	10,770	2,056
EffectSpecItemsInclTax(STEC)		25	118	2	2,885	379
InclTaxExcl/ImpactSpecItems		40	33	18	(5,128)	792
Normalized Income After Tax		1,562	1,072	1,152	15,898	1,264
Normalized Inc Avail to Common		1,562	1,072	1,152	15,898	1,264
Basic Normalized EPS		1.87	1.28	1.36	18.73	1.51
Diluted Normalized EPS		1.85	1.27	1.35	18.53	1.50

() = Negative Value
Values are displayed in Millions

	5 yr Trend	2010 12/31/10	2011 12/31/11	2012 12/31/12	2013 12/31/13	2014 12/31/14

CASH FROM (USED BY) OPERATING ACTIVITIES

Net Income		593	854	1,009	10,540	659
Depreciation/Depletion		1,511	1,523	1,565	1,658	1,771
Deferred Taxes		9	(2)	17	(7,991)	414
Unusual Items		573	210	240	285	1,026
Equity in Net Earnings/Loss		--	--	--	--	106
Other Non-Cash Items		(116)	245	(706)	(255)	1,973
Non-Cash Items		457	455	(466)	30	3,105
Cash Interest Pd, Suppl		1,036	925	1,036	698	560
Accounts Receivable		(141)	(76)	(116)	90	(302)
Prepaid Expenses		(105)	(16)	(134)	28	58
Other Assets		0	(24)	--	--	(922)
Payable/Accrued		516	303	899	213	228
Changes in Working Capital		262	4	351	267	(1,002)
Total Cash from Operations		2,832	2,834	2,476	4,504	4,947

PLUS: CASH FROM (USED BY) INVESTING ACTIVITIES

Capital Expenditures		(1,342)	(1,254)	(1,968)	(2,568)	(2,249)
Sale of Fixed Assets		36	--	--	--	--
Sale/Maturity of Investment		--	--	--	--	1,533
Investment, Net		(730)	844	1,019	757	--
Purchase of Investments		--	(1,078)	(958)	(959)	(1,795)
Other Investing Cash Flow		10	(10)	(55)	14	48
OtherInvestCashFlowItms,Tot		(684)	(244)	6	(188)	(214)
Total Cash from Investing		(2,026)	(1,498)	(1,962)	(2,756)	(2,463)

PLUS: CASH FROM (USED BY) FINANCING ACTIVITIES

Financing Cash Flow Items		71	206	144	225	19
Total Cash Dividends Paid		--	--	--	(102)	(251)
Iss (Retirmnt) of Stock,Net		--	--	--	(250)	(1,100)
Long Term Debt Issued		1,130	2,395	1,965	268	1,020
Long Term Debt Reduction		(3,722)	(4,172)	(2,864)	(1,461)	(2,928)
Iss (Retirmnt) of Debt, Net		(2,592)	(1,777)	(899)	(1,193)	(1,908)
Total Cash From Financing		(2,521)	(1,571)	(755)	(1,320)	(3,240)

EQUALS: INCREASE (DECREASE) IN CASH

Net Change in Cash		(1,715)	(235)	(241)	428	(756)
NetCash-BeginBal/RsvdforFutUse		4,607	2,892	2,657	2,416	2,844
NetCash-EndBal/RsrvforFutUse		2,892	2,657	2,416	2,844	2,088
Depreciation, Supplemental		1,511	1,523	1,565	1,658	1,771
Cash Interest Pd, Suppl		1,036	925	1,036	698	560

() = Negative Value
Values are displayed in Millions

Nuance = 뉴앙스, 누앙스, 뉘앙스

Apple의 Siri가 처음 나온것은 2011년 10월 Iphone 4S에서 부터였습니다.

Google Android의 경우 2010년 Goole I/O에서 voice recognition을 데모했었습니다. 2013년에 Google Now를 선보였고요.

2013년에 놀러갔다가 시리를 정말 잘쓰는 사람을 보고 앞으로 세상의 input은 keyboard가 아니라 voice라는 깨닮음을 얻고 Nuance를 살펴보다가 투자를 단행했습니다. 애플이랑 결별할지도 모른다는 rumor가 있었고, 주요 IT업체였던 Apple, Google, Microsoft 세 회사가 자체 voice recognition solution이 있었다는 것도 risk factor였는데 아이칸이 투자했다는 이야기에 좀더 서두르게 되서 한동한 손실에 시달렸어야 했지요. 물타기를 최저가 근처에서 많이해서 2015년 투자수익률을 NUAN가 주도하고 있습니다. 아직도 가치를 더 높게 보는 이유가

1. 매출과 순이익의 반이 Healthcare쪽에서 나오고 성장률이 상당히 높습니다.

2. IT쪽 매출과 발전이 상당히 느렸는데 smart automotive(자동차)쪽에 성장이 상당히 빠른것 같습니다. 1-2년 성장이 빠를것 같습니다. Wearable이 늘어날수록 voice 쪽 솔루션이 계속 필요합니다.

3. 라이센스 비용이 좀 비싸서 누군가 라이센스를 내는것보다 사는것이 낫다는 판단을 할 가능성이 높습니다. 헬스케어와 voice recognition solution 둘다 필요한 회사가 가장 적합하겠지요. 

4. 아직까지 돈을 못벌고 있는데 현금흐름도 좋아지고 이득도 늘고있어 주가가 폭등할 좋은 모멤텀이 쌓이고 있습니다.

Nuance의 4가지 분야는, 아래와 같고 전세계적으로 유명한 고객사를 가지고 있습니다.

Healthcare

Mobile & Consumer

Enterprise

Imaging

-------------------------

-------------------------

KEY STATISTICS

Industry Range: Low      High Mouseover quintile for more detail

 Reuters Investment Profile Report

 

SHAREHOLDER EQUITY

Shares Outstanding	313.8 M
Institutional Ownership	79.28%
Number of Floating Shares	309.2 M
Short Interest as % of Float	4.52%

FINANCIAL STRENGTH (MRQ)

Quick Ratio	--
Current Ratio	1.81x
Debt/Equity	0.89x
Debt/Assets	0.38x

NUAN's debt to equity ratio indicates that it has been more aggressive with using debt to finance growth than 70% of its peers in the Software & Programming industry. The resultant effect on earnings would be more volatile than related companies.

VALUATION (MRQ)

Price/Earnings (TTM)	--
Price/Sales (TTM)	2.75x
Price/Book	2.23x
Price/Cash Flow	30.88x

NUAN was not profitable in its latest fiscal year, therefore the P/E Ratiois not applicable. Its Price to Cash Flow Ratio would give an alternative indication of its expense relative to the Software & Programming industry.

PROFITABILITY (TTM)

Gross Margin	56.41%
Operating Margin	0.30%
EBITDA Margin	14.05%
Net Profit Margin	-6.24%

NUAN's Gross Margin is comparable to other companies in the Software & Programming industry, which means it has relatively the same amount of cash to spend on business operations as its peers. As indicated by the Operating Margin, NUAN controls its costs and expenses better than 67% of its peers.

MANAGEMENT EFFECTIVENESS (TTM)

Return on Assets	-2.06%
Return on Equity	-4.81%
Return on Inves. Capital	-2.35%

The Return on Equity for NUAN shows that it is able to reinvest its earnings as efficiently as its competitors in the Software & Programming industry. Typically, companies that have higher return on equity values are more attractive to investors.

GROWTH RATE (TTM)

Earnings Per Share	26.9
Sales	2.1
Dividend (MRQ)	--

NUAN's EPS Growth Rate is greater than 61% of its peers in the Software & Programming industry.

DIVIDEND (TTM)

Dividend Yield	--
Payout Ratio	--
Annual Dividend	0.00

The average dividend yield for companies in the Software & Programming industry is 1.55%.

OPERATING RATIOS (TTM)

Asset Turnover	0.33%
Inventory Turnover	--
Receivables Turnover	4.93%
Effective Tax Rate	--

These ratios give an indicator of efficiency (ability to move inventory and generate sales) within a company, particularly ones with tangible goods (i.e. automotive, computer hardware) as compared to its peers.

COMPANY OFFICERS

Chairman	Paul A. Ricci
Executive Vice President - Finance	Thomas L. Beaudoin
Corporate Executive	Earl H. Devanny
Executive Vice President	William Robbins
Executive Vice President	Adam Bruce. Bowden
Lead Director	Robert J. Frankenberg
Director	Robert J. Finocchio
Independent Director	Brett M. Icahn
Independent Director	William H. Janeway

COMPANY CONTACT

Employees	14,000
Headquarters	1 Wayside Rd BURLINGTON, MA 01803-4609
Phone	781-565-5000
Fax	781-565-5001
Web Address http://www.nuance.com

 

BALANCE SHEET

• Quarterly
 
• Annual

	5 yr Trend	2010 09/30/10	2011 09/30/11	2012 09/30/12	2013 09/30/13	2014 09/30/14

ASSETS

Cash & Equivalents		517	447	1,130	808	547
Short Term Investments		5	31	0	39	41
Cash and Short Term Inv		522	478	1,130	847	588
Trade Accts Recvble, Gross		224	287	388	397	450
Prov. for Doubtful Accts		(6)	(6)	(7)	(14)	(21)
Total Receivables, Net		225	281	381	383	428
Invent. - Finished Goods		2	5	4	3	4
Inventories - Other		6	7	8	12	9
Total Inventory		9	11	11	15	12
Prepaid Expenses		62	77	91	88	80
Restricted Cash - Current		25	7	0	--	--
Deferred Income Tax		--	0	88	75	56
Other Current Assets		--	--	--	2	0
Other Curr. Assets, Total		25	7	88	77	56
Total Current Assets		842	855	1,701	1,410	1,165
Buildings		21	25	27	32	40
Land/Improvements		2	2	2	2	2
Machinery/Equipment		125	162	224	303	370
Construction in Progress		1	3	2	2	4
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Gross		149	192	255	339	417
Accumulated Depreciation		(87)	(113)	(139)	(178)	(225)
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Net		62	78	116	161	191
Goodwill, Net		2,078	2,348	2,955	3,293	3,411
Intangibles, Gross		1,059	1,227	1,484	1,586	1,632
Accum. Intangible Amort.		(373)	(496)	(577)	(633)	(716)
Intangibles, Net		686	732	907	953	915
Long Term Investments		28	--	--	--	--
Other Long Term Assets		74	83	120	142	138
Total Assets		3,770	4,095	5,799	5,959	5,820

LIABILITIES

Accounts Payable		79	83	113	91	62
Accrued Expenses		147	172	211	181	210
Notes Payable/ST Debt		0	0	0	0	0
Curr. Port. LT Dbt/Cap Ls.		8	7	380	246	5
Customer Advances		142	186	207	254	298
Income Taxes Payable		4	4	5	--	--
Deferred Income Tax		0	--	--	--	--
Other Current Liabilities		2	24	50	34	68
Other Curr. Lblts, Total		149	214	261	287	366
Total Current Liabilities		382	475	965	805	642
Total Long Term Debt		851	853	1,736	2,108	2,127
Total Debt		859	860	2,116	2,354	2,132
Deferred Income Tax		64	72	161	163	156
Other Liabilities, Total		175	202	210	244	313
Total Liabilities		1,473	1,602	3,071	3,321	3,238

SHAREHOLDER EQUITY

Pref. Stock-Non Rdmbl, Net		5	5	5	--	--
Common Stock		0	0	0	0	0
Additional Paid-In Capital		2,582	2,746	2,908	3,017	3,153
Ret. Earn.(Accum. Deficit)		(281)	(243)	(161)	(369)	(531)
Treasury Stock - Common		(17)	(17)	(17)	(17)	(17)
Unrealized Gain (Loss)		0	0	0	--	--
Cum. Trans. Adjustment		13	4	(3)	8	(20)
Min. Pension Lblty Adj.		(5)	(2)	(4)	(1)	(4)
Other Comprehensive Income		0	0	0	--	--
Other Equity, Total		8	2	(7)	7	(24)
Total Equity		2,297	2,493	2,728	2,638	2,582
Total Liabilities & Shareholders� Equity		3,770	4,095	5,799	5,959	5,820
Shr Outs.-Com. Primary Iss.		298	309	312	316	321
Shr Outs.-Com. Stk. Iss. 2		4	4	4	--	--
Ttl Comm. Shares Outs.		302	312	316	316	321
Trsy. Shrs-Comm. Primary Iss.		4	4	4	4	4
Trsy. Shrs-Comm. Iss. 2		0	0	0	--	--

() = Negative Value
Values are displayed in Millions

INCOME STATEMENT

• Quarterly
 
• Annual

	5 yr Trend	2010 09/30/10	2011 09/30/11	2012 09/30/12	2013 09/30/13	2014 09/30/14

REVENUE AND GROSS PROFIT

Total Revenue

1,119

1,319

1,652

1,855

1,923

OPERATING EXPENSES

Cost of Revenue, Total		409	500	605	767	844
Selling/Gen/Admin Expense		388	454	415	495	497
Labor & Related Expense		--	--	118	105	113
Sell/Gen/AdminExpenses,Tot		388	454	533	600	609
Research & Development		152	179	225	289	339
Depreciation/Amortization		88	88	95	105	109
Purchased R&D Written-Off		0	--	--	--	--
Restructuring Charge		18	23	8	16	19
Other Unusual Expnse (In)		31	22	59	30	24
Unusual Expense (Income)		49	45	67	46	44
Total Operating Expense		1,086	1,266	1,525	1,807	1,945
Operating Income		33	53	126	48	(21)

NON-OPERATING INCOME & EXPENSES

Inter Expse,Net Non-Operat		(41)	(37)	(85)	(138)	(133)
Inter Income, Non-Operating		1	3	2	2	2
Invest Income, Non-Operat		--	--	6	(4)	(7)
Inter/Invest Inc, Non-Oper		1	3	8	(3)	(4)
OtherNon-OperatInc (Expnse)		6	11	16	(5)	3
Other, Net		6	11	16	(5)	3
Income Before Tax		(1)	30	65	(97)	(155)

INCOME TAXES

Income Tax - Total		18	(8)	(142)	19	(5)
Income After Tax		(19)	38	207	(115)	(150)

MINORITY INTEREST AND EQUITY IN AFFILIATES

Net Inc Before Extra Items		(19)	38	207	(115)	(150)
Net Income		(19)	38	207	(115)	(150)

ADJUSTMENTS TO NET INCOME

Total Adjust to Net Income		0	0	(2)	0	0
Income Available to Common Excl. Extra. Items		(19)	38	205	(115)	(150)
Income Available to Common Incl. Extra. Items		(19)	38	205	(115)	(150)

EPS RECONCILIATION

Basic/Primary Weighted Average Shares		287	302	306	314	317
Basic/Primary EPS Excl. Extra. Items		(0.07)	0.13	0.67	(0.37)	(0.47)
Basic/Primary EPS Incl. Extra. Items		(0.07)	0.13	0.67	(0.37)	(0.47)
Dilution Adjustment		0	0	2	0	0
Diluted Weighted Average Shares		287	316	321	314	317
Diluted EPS Excl. Extra. Items		(0.07)	0.12	0.65	(0.37)	(0.47)
Diluted EPS Incl. Extra. Items		(0.07)	0.12	0.65	(0.37)	(0.47)

COMMON STOCK DIVIDENDS

Div/Share-ComStockPrimIssue		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Divid - Common Stock		0	0	0	0	0

PRO FORMA INCOME

Pro Forma Net Income

--

--

--

--

--

SUPPLEMENTAL ITEMS

Interest Expense, Suppl		41	37	85	138	133
Depreciat/Amort, Suppl		22	28	32	40	52

NORMALIZED INCOME

Total Special Items		49	45	67	46	44
Normalized Income Before Tax		47	75	132	(51)	(111)
EffectSpecItemsInclTax(STEC)		17	16	23	16	15
InclTaxExcl/ImpactSpecItems		35	7	(118)	35	11
Normalized Income After Tax		12	67	251	(85)	(122)
Normalized Inc Avail to Common		12	67	248	(85)	(122)
Basic Normalized EPS		0.04	0.22	0.81	(0.27)	(0.38)
Diluted Normalized EPS		0.04	0.21	0.78	(0.27)	(0.38)

() = Negative Value
Values are displayed in Millions

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

• Quarterly
 
• Annual

	5 yr Trend	2010 09/30/10	2011 09/30/11	2012 09/30/12	2013 09/30/13	2014 09/30/14

CASH FROM (USED BY) OPERATING ACTIVITIES

Net Income		(19,099)	38,238	207,135	(115,238)	(150,343)
Depreciation/Depletion		157,156	170,933	187,183	208,659	221,776
Deferred Taxes		3,742	(43,890)	(151,547)	(2,472)	(22,172)
Unusual Items		6,833	11,725	0	0	--
Other Non-Cash Items		114,670	176,298	200,368	193,597	221,957
Non-Cash Items		121,503	188,023	200,368	193,597	221,957
Cash Taxes Pd, Supplemental		14,215	15,949	13,292	18,329	15,591
Cash Interest Pd, Suppl		27,899	23,034	36,907	95,727	96,743
Accounts Receivable		(773)	(25,530)	(55,210)	25,165	(39,502)
Prepaid Expenses		(3,840)	(11,793)	13,881	10,988	(396)
Accounts Payable		4,710	(8,193)	22,645	(26,843)	(28,617)
Accrued Expenses		(6,760)	(6,775)	8,939	16,506	13,617
Changes in Working Capital		32,980	4,107	29,860	110,464	86,929
Total Cash from Operations		296,282	357,411	472,999	395,010	358,147

PLUS: CASH FROM (USED BY) INVESTING ACTIVITIES

Purchase of Fixed Assets		(25,974)	(34,907)	(62,910)	(55,588)	(60,287)
Purchase/Acq of Intangibles		(15,300)	(6,715)	--	--	--
Capital Expenditures		(41,274)	(41,622)	(62,910)	(55,588)	(60,287)
Acquisition of Business		(203,729)	(402,290)	(884,945)	(607,653)	(253,000)
Sale/Maturity of Investment		0	11,650	31,789	8,768	64,975
Purchase of Investments		(48,499)	(10,776)	(15,156)	(39,435)	(62,639)
Other Investing Cash Flow		(22,070)	17,184	6,747	0	0
OtherInvestCashFlowItms,Tot		(274,298)	(384,232)	(861,565)	(638,320)	(250,664)
Total Cash from Investing		(315,572)	(425,854)	(924,475)	(693,908)	(310,951)

PLUS: CASH FROM (USED BY) FINANCING ACTIVITIES

Financing Cash Flow Items		(13,650)	(12,527)	1,320,415	560,837	(45,407)
Sale/Issuance of Common		41,860	36,667	27,747	30,216	22,652
Repurch/Retirement Common		0	0	(199,997)	(184,388)	(26,483)
Iss (Retirmnt) of Stock,Net		41,860	36,667	(172,250)	(154,172)	(3,831)
Short Term Debt Reduction		(8,460)	(7,535)	(6,605)	(425,634)	--
Short Term Debt, Net		(8,460)	(7,535)	(6,605)	(425,634)	--
Long Term Debt, Net		(9,870)	(10,643)	(8,525)	(1,688)	(257,928)
Iss (Retirmnt) of Debt, Net		(18,330)	(18,178)	(15,130)	(427,322)	(257,928)
Total Cash From Financing		9,880	5,962	1,133,035	(20,657)	(307,166)

EQUALS: INCREASE (DECREASE) IN CASH

Foreign Exchange Effects		(998)	(6,925)	978	(2,088)	(918)
Net Change in Cash		(10,408)	(69,406)	682,537	(321,643)	(260,888)
NetCash-BeginBal/RsvdforFutUse		527,038	516,630	447,224	1,129,761	808,118
NetCash-EndBal/RsrvforFutUse		516,630	447,224	1,129,761	808,118	547,230
Depreciation, Supplemental		157,156	170,933	187,183	208,659	221,776
Cash Interest Pd, Suppl		27,899	23,034	36,907	95,727	96,743
Cash Taxes Pd, Supplemental		14,215	15,949	13,292	18,329	15,591

() = Negative Value
Values are displayed in Thousands

작년말에 IRobot Roomba를 처음샀습니다. 가정에서 매주 하는 청소에 대해서 새로운 역사를 쓰는것 같습니다. 이런거 로봇으로 대체할수 없을까 했는데 상당히 만족하고 있습니다. 저런것이 잘 될까했는데 많은 분들이 상당히 마음에 든다고 하셔서 구입한거 였습니다. 제가 이것을 구입한 이후로 주변에 이런게 될까 고민하는 많은 사람에게 강추를 몇번 날렸습니다. 

그런 제 모습을 보며 이 회사에 투자를 해야겠다고 생각하고 있습니다. 회사를 조사해 보니 제가 맘에 든느 부분은 For The HOME 부분 인데 For the Business는 제품도 별로고 판매도 별로일것 같고요. For Defense & Security는 상당히 좋을것이라고 생각됩니다.각 부문이 매출과 이득에 차치하는 비율을 잘 계산해본다음에 추천일까 아닐까를 update할까합니다. (청소로봇 룸바와 브라바는 무조건 강추입니다.)

지금 인기를 끌고 있는 Drone쪽으로 룸바같은것을 만들면 완전 이회사 대박일것이라고 생각됩니다. 이미 기술을 다 가지고 있고 많은 사람들이 필요로하는 demand를 잘 파악해야겠지요.

------------------------

------------------------

Industry Range: Low      High Mouseover quintile for more detail

 Reuters Investment Profile Report

 

SHAREHOLDER EQUITY

Shares Outstanding	29.7 M
Institutional Ownership	68.84%
Number of Floating Shares	28.8 M
Short Interest as % of Float	13.78%

FINANCIAL STRENGTH (MRQ)

Quick Ratio	4.88x
Current Ratio	5.72x
Debt/Equity	0.00x
Debt/Assets	0.00x

VALUATION (MRQ)

Price/Earnings (TTM)	25.90x
Price/Sales (TTM)	1.69x
Price/Book	2.41x
Price/Cash Flow	28.48x

IRBT's P/E Ratio is greater than 79% of other companies in the Appliance & Tool industry. This typically means that investors are willing to pay more for its level of earnings relative to future growth.

PROFITABILITY (TTM)

Gross Margin	46.39%
Operating Margin	9.46%
EBITDA Margin	11.86%
Net Profit Margin	6.65%

IRBT's Gross Margin is more than 87% of other companies in the Appliance & Tool industry, which means it has more cash to spend on business operations as compared to its peers. As indicated by theOperating Margin, IRBT controls its costs and expenses better than 75% of its peers.

MANAGEMENT EFFECTIVENESS (TTM)

Return on Assets	8.58%
Return on Equity	10.06%
Return on Inves. Capital	9.95%

The Return on Equity for IRBT shows that it is able to reinvest its earnings as efficiently as its competitors in the Appliance & Tool industry. Typically, companies that have higher return on equity values are more attractive to investors.

GROWTH RATE (TTM)

Earnings Per Share	48.6
Sales	13.2
Dividend (MRQ)	--

IRBT's EPS Growth Rate is greater than 72% of its peers in the Appliance & Tool industry.

DIVIDEND (TTM)

Dividend Yield	--
Payout Ratio	0.00%
Annual Dividend	0.00

The average dividend yield for companies in the Appliance & Tool industry is 1.44%.

OPERATING RATIOS (TTM)

Asset Turnover	1.29%
Inventory Turnover	6.60%
Receivables Turnover	14.79%
Effective Tax Rate	27.93%

These ratios give an indicator of efficiency (ability to move inventory and generate sales) within a company, particularly ones with tangible goods (i.e. automotive, computer hardware) as compared to its peers.

COMPANY OFFICERS

Chairman	Colin M. Angle
Chief Financial Officer	Alison Dean
Executive Vice President	Paolo Pirjanian
Executive Vice President	Glen D. Weinstein
Executive Vice President	Russell J. Campanello
Senior Vice President	Christian Cerda
Lead Director	George C. McNamee
Independent Director	Ronald D. Chwang
Independent Director	Gail Deegan

COMPANY CONTACT

Employees	589
Headquarters	8 Crosby Dr BEDFORD, MA 01730-1402
Phone	781-430-3000
Fax	781-430-3001
Web Address http://www.irobot.com/

 

------------------------

BALANCE SHEET

	5 yr Trend	2011 01/01/11	2011 12/31/11	2012 12/29/12	2013 12/28/13	2014 12/27/14

ASSETS

Cash & Equivalents		108,383	166,308	126,770	165,404	185,957
Short Term Investments		13,928	17,811	12,430	21,954	36,166
Cash and Short Term Inv		122,311	184,119	139,200	187,358	222,123
Trade Accts Recvble, Gross		34,144	43,425	29,524	39,415	71,123
Prov. for Doubtful Accts		(88)	(87)	(111)	(67)	(67)
Total Receivables, Net		38,068	45,700	30,609	40,204	73,670
Invent. - Finished Goods		20,410	23,320	28,056	37,587	38,402
Invent. - Work In Progress		27	0	60	0	0
Invent. - Raw Materials		6,723	7,769	8,849	8,520	9,455
Total Inventory		27,160	31,089	36,965	46,107	47,857
Deferred Income Tax		12,917	15,344	19,266	20,144	21,505
Other Current Assets		6,137	7,928	8,853	6,848	9,704
Other Curr. Assets, Total		19,054	23,272	28,119	26,992	31,209
Total Current Assets		206,593	284,180	234,893	300,661	374,859
Buildings		13,532	15,459	15,758	15,983	20,833
Machinery/Equipment		29,817	36,632	37,897	37,810	47,308
Other Prop./Plant/Equip.		2,484	2,732	2,762	1,845	2,297
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Gross		45,833	54,823	56,417	55,638	70,438
Accumulated Depreciation		(20,213)	(25,794)	(31,464)	(31,977)	(39,141)
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Net		25,620	29,029	24,953	23,661	31,297
Goodwill, Net		7,910	7,910	48,951	48,751	48,751
Intangibles, Gross		4,500	4,500	31,500	31,500	31,500
Accum. Intangible Amort.		(1,130)	(2,033)	(3,276)	(8,832)	(12,354)
Intangibles, Net		3,370	2,467	28,224	22,668	19,146
Long Term Investments		2,500	2,500	--	10,501	10,751
Other Long Term Assets		--	--	8,500	--	--
Total Assets		254,331	332,213	354,313	416,337	493,213

LIABILITIES

Accounts Payable		38,689	48,406	42,515	41,344	60,256
Accrued Expenses		33,617	34,110	24,787	33,552	33,367
Notes Payable/ST Debt		0	0	0	0	0
Customer Advances		3,534	1,527	6,257	5,188	4,551
Income Taxes Payable		--	957	719	831	867
Other Curr. Lblts, Total		3,534	2,484	6,976	6,019	5,418
Total Current Liabilities		75,840	85,000	74,278	80,915	99,041
Total Long Term Debt		0	0	0	0	0
Total Debt		0	0	0	0	0
Other Liabilities, Total		3,584	4,255	4,218	4,733	3,736
Total Liabilities		79,424	89,255	78,496	85,648	102,777

SHAREHOLDER EQUITY

Redeemable Preferred Stock		0	--	0	0	0
Common Stock		258	272	278	289	297
Additional Paid-In Capital		156,620	184,395	199,903	227,175	249,409
Ret. Earn.(Accum. Deficit)		17,949	58,140	75,437	103,078	140,881
Other Equity, Total		80	151	199	147	(151)
Total Equity		174,907	242,958	275,817	330,689	390,436
Total Liabilities & Shareholders� Equity		254,331	332,213	354,313	416,337	493,213
Ttl Comm. Shares Outs.		25,845	27,217	27,782	28,935	29,645
Trsy. Shrs-Comm. Primary Iss.		0	0	0	0	0