애플 카의 뉴스를 보며, 애플이 돈되는데 안뛰어 드는게 이상할정도로 당연한 행보로 생각하고 있습니다. 애플이 자동차와 TV시장을 70년대에 정체되어 있다고 define했다고 하는데 TV시장은 워낙 걸린 얘들이 많아 협상할게 많다고 하는데 자동차 시장은 만들어 당국의 승인요건만 마추면 된다니 더 쉽게 생각할거라 생각됩니다.

재밌는 생각을 해봤습니다. 애플이 독자적으로 자동차를 생산할것인지 아니면 누구를 인수할 것인지, 아니면 적당히 아웃소싱해서 핵심만 먹을것인지. 가장 먹음직한 업체는 테슬라인데, 테슬라가 애플에 인수되려고 아주 노력도 많이했었죠. 내부 OS를 iOS로 바꾼다고도 하기도하고, 그런데 너무 커버린데다가(그래도 애플에게는 껌값이지만) 특허를 다 공개하는 바람에 돈 비싸게 들일필요가 없어 보이고요. 게다가 스마트가 시장이 급격히 열리지 않는다고 가정하면 지금은 연구개발 단계고 밑거름을 만들고 기달릴때지 성급히 시작할리 없다고 생각하면 테슬라는 더더욱 아닌것 같습니다.(사면 내년부터 내놔야 하는데 애플이 몇대 판다고 그만큼 투자하겠어요)

저는 아이폰 처럼 철저하게 아웃소싱 할것이라고 보는데, 누가 만들지 생각해보면 포드가 가능성이 많다고 생각됩니다. 아이폰을 중국에서 만들고, 칩을 삼성이나 TSMC에서 찍어도 고급으로 팔리는거 보면 누가 만드냐는 중요한게 아니지요. made in usa라는 상징적인 것도 있고요. 전세계 공장과 판매망도 있고. 포드가 경제위기때 bailout되지 않아 깔끔한 인상도 좋고요. 포드는 차체에 대단한 강점이 있지만 자동차 소프트웨어에 완전 뒷쳐저 있어서 둘의 필요성이 잘 맞아떨어집니다.

그러고 뉴스를 찾아보니,

애플의 자동차 부서 수장이 포드 엔지니어 출신이네요. 포드에서 컨셉카 만들던 사람도 애플카로 들어갔네요. 아플카 프로젝트 이름이 타이탄(Titan 옛날 트럭이름이기도 한데 ㅋㅋㅋ) 포드 옛날 차 모델 모양으로 프로토타입해서 쓸것 같다는 예상도 있네요.(미니밴 타입이라는 말도 안되는 예상이 초기에는 많았으나) 우리 MTP처럼 안팔더라도 테스트용 차는 필요할테니.

http://www.fastcodesign.com/3042547/6-auto-design-visionaries-who-could-make-apples-titan-car-a-reality

1월에 포드가 실리콘 밸리에 자동차 연구소를 세운다고 발표했는데, QNX하는 ㅅ끼들이 왠 실리콘 밸리에 세워 했는데... 이제 보니 잘 맞아 떨어지네요. 그렇게 말을하지. 주주총회에서 소리칠 뻔했네요. 뭐하는 ㅅ끼들이냐고. ㅋㅋㅋ

http://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2015/01/22/ford-silicon-valley-research-center/

2020년형으로 팔것 같다고하는데, 2018년에 생산에 들어가겠네요. 이렇게 되면 포드 장기적으로 엄청 괜찮을듯. ^^ 그런데 함정은 애플은 한군데서만 생산하지 않겠지요. 애플카2는 현대에게 줬다가 애플카3는 GM에게 주기도 하고 이러는거 아닐지 몰라요.

Google도 더 바빠질듯. 퀄컴에게도 시장이 좀 빨리 열릴수 있고요.

삼성도 same soon 답게 자동차 만들어야 하는데 현대가 도와줄까 모르겠네요.

First from live writer.

Sergio Heiber

Special situations, event-driven, newsletter provider, small-cap

Profile| Send Message| 

Follow (97 followers)  

Nuance Is Doing OK And Getting More Interesting

Mar. 3, 2015 2:26 PM ET  |  About: Nuance Communications, Inc. (NUAN)

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

Summary

• A third activist fund has taken a position.
• Quarterly earnings again beat expectations.
• Chart double bottom signals a trend reversal.

  Nuance Communications (NASDAQ:NUAN) is recognized as the premier voice and recognition technology company in the world. This company grew by spending heavily to acquire its competition, a formula that has not worked out well with many publications labeling CEO Paul Ricci as the worst CEO. NUAN has been undergoing a transformation in its earnings model, now relying heavily on recurring revenue. I think there are reasons to be optimistic about NUAN's transformation and future prospects.

  Reviewing NUAN's net new bookings, cash flow, and recurring revenue stream provide an indication that and NUAN is on target with their game plan. Theories that NUAN will be acquired or do a spin off are becoming less frequent but activist interest is increasing, and that is a good sign.

  New net bookings fell 5.5% Y/Y in FQ1 to $303.8M. The company cited currency exchange issues as a partial cause but still forecast FY15 net new bookings growth of 4%-5%. Despite labeling the results "disappointing" CEO Paul Ricci stated in the recent earnings call, "we do expect for bookings growth to accelerate in the back-half of the year simply because of the timing of some of those deals. And of course, Nuance historically as always had a strong quarter in its fiscal fourth quarter relatively speaking in both bookings and revenues."

  Cash flow grew 22% over the prior year. Management has put the cash right back in to support the stock price with an ongoing share buyback program having spent $200 million out of the approved $500 million.

  Recurring revenue grew 4% year-over-year and now comprises 66% of our total revenue as the company continues to succeed in shifting their earnings model away from licensing deals to more predictable and stable recurring revenue. The company believes that it is at the point were declining licensing revenue will have a lesser impact on earnings growth from recurring revenue.

  Takeover or split up rumors have been abundant since Icahn became involved in 19. Goldman research concluded that there will be no buyout and lowered NUAN to a SELL rating. "We do not see NUAN as a potential acquisition candidate." But new rumors continue to pop up. A possible BAIDU takeover was the subject of this article. But NUAN may end up alright on its own.

  A technical evaluation indicates a turnaround in stock price. There seems to be a change in direction. The stock price had been in a downtrend, but a trend reversal is in progress after a double bottom formation in December. (chart)

  During the last quarter, another activist fund, Okumus took a 5% stake joining Icahn who owns 19% and ClearBridge at 7%. This is noteworthy, as hedge funds tend to be ahead of the crowd in finding value. Okumus is not as well known as Icahn but is not an industry lightweight. The Okumus Fund was recently in the lead in the HSBC hedge fund sweepstakes.

  On February 5th, the company reported EPS of $0.25 beating estimates by $0.03 and revenue of $489M ahead of estimates by $2.13M. On fundamental valuation, NUAN is cheap and that as evidenced by the increasing interest from hedge funds. The stock sells at a modest PE of 13 and a PEG of .63 despite analysts' projections of earnings growth for the next five years of 20%.

  Despite beating estimates, management was very cautious about forward guidance and it is still too early to call NUAN a turnaround story, but there are signs that a turnaround is taking shape and that a foundation for earnings growth has been laid out.