자동차이야기2015. 3. 14. 02:32

제네시스는 성공한 모델이고 모델 체인지후 판매량이 다시 늘고 있는 추세로 보이네요. 무게를 좀 늘리고 연비가 떨어지더라도 안전성과 여러 좋은 option을 넣은것은 잘한 일인듯.


Equus와 K900(K9)은 왜 수출했나 할정도로 죽쓰고 있네요. 게다가 가격차이로 인한 한국으로 역수입을 우려해서 5000cc로만 판매하는것이 실패요인으로 보이네요. 꼼수부리려다 손목아지 날라가는 거지요. 가격을 엄청 깍아줘야할듯.


Genesis
MonthHyundai Genesis
U.S. Sales 2010
Hyundai Genesis
U.S. Sales 2011
Hyundai Genesis
U.S. Sales 2012
Hyundai Genesis
U.S. Sales 2013
Hyundai Genesis
U.S. Sales 2014
Hyundai Genesis
U.S. Sales 2015
January167017832291247214592573
February176224412512251716072793
March21452664342931242170
April22652648354825842264
May24802769382827673437
June25693149337429383109
July23093517310328422990
August28893253226229473029
September32303000266929262248
October23752602217519442325
November30052702238519892431
December24232470239732802923



YearHyundai Genesis
U.S. Sales
Hyundai Genesis
Canadian Sales
20086167342
200921,8893438
201029,1223924
201132,9983625
201233,9732979
201332,3302875
201429,9923027
2015 YTD *5366283


Equus
MonthHyundai Equus
U.S. Sales 2011
Hyundai Equus
U.S. Sales 2012
Hyundai Equus
U.S. Sales 2013
Hyundai Equus
U.S. Sales 2014
Hyundai Equus
U.S. Sales 2015
January254292253327220
February233284270260207
March241352291331
April222351261285
May221351257324
June221355195250
July302362173305
August297296435253
September292320371261
October285318361248
November300341359228
December325350352343



YearHyundai Equus
U.S. Sales
Hyundai Equus
Canadian Sales
2010196-----
20113193116
20123972116
2013357883
2014341565
2015 YTD *4273


K900
MonthKia K900 U.S. Sales 2014Kia K900 U.S. Sales 2015
January---119
February---62
March105
April260
May227
June224
July132
August102
September56
October62
November69
December93


Posted by 쁘레드
IT이야기2015. 3. 14. 01:57

타이어에서 생기는 마찰열을 다시 에너지로 바꿀수 있을까? 좀 sci-fi 같은데... 이런 뉴스를 계속 흘려야 광고가 되겠지요. 중저가 타이어중에서는 GT가 전 젤 좋다고 생각하고 있습니다.


---------------------

Goodyear's working on an energy-harvesting tire

It's a fundamental principle of physics that when you use energy, say to run an electric car, some of it is lost. Companies have tried to overcome this by installing hardware that harvests this lost heat, most famously in regenerative breakingGoodyear is hoping to do a similar thing with tyres, dreaming up a product that could, theoretically, convert the heat generated from the friction of movement back into power for the battery.

The romantically named BHO3 would work in one of two ways. Either, the company would add in thermoelectric materials that could absorb heat as the rubber rolls along the road. Alternatively, it could use a piezoelectric substance that would generate power when compressed. Unfortunately, such technology only resides in the imagination of Goodyear's design team and isn't expected to exist for another 15 years. Hopefully, before then, Elon Musk will have gotten laser-powered hover vehicles to the point where we can all buy one.







Today’s Trading

Previous close25.47
Today’s open25.34
Day’s range25.05 - 25.62
Volume726,187
Average volume (3 months)3,799,324
Market cap$6.8B
Dividend yield0.96%
Data as of 12:45pm ET, 03/13/2015

Growth & Valuation

Earnings growth (last year)+285.09%
Earnings growth (this year)+3.14%
Earnings growth (next 5 years)+11.03%
Revenue growth (last year)-7.18%
P/E ratio2.9
Price/Sales0.42
Price/Book1.87

Competitors

 Today’s
change
Today’s
% change
CTBCooper Tire & Rubber...-0.19-0.49%
TWITitan International ...-0.26-2.55%
--Pirelli & C SpA+3.76+40.60%
Data as of 12:57pm ET, 03/13/2015

Financials

Next reporting dateApril 24, 2015
EPS forecast (this quarter)$0.45
Annual revenue (last year)$18.1B
Annual profit (last year)$2.5B
Net profit margin13.52%

Profile

Sector
Consumer Durables
Industry
Automotive Aftermarket
Chairman, President &
Chief Executive Officer
Richard J. Kramer
Senior Vice President-
Global Operations
Gregory L. Smith
Corporate headquarters
Akron, Ohio

Forecasts


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Posted by 쁘레드
IT이야기2015. 3. 14. 01:49

한국만큼 시험으로 사람을 판단하고 관리하려는 사회가 있을듯 싶다. 이런것으로 지표를 메기면 Top10안에는 한국이 들듯. 시험이 나쁜건 아니지만, 결국 암기위주의 교육으로 갈것이 뻔하고, 시험 시스템를 공정하게 관리할수 있을것이냐는 의문도 생기도.


한국에서 회사다닐때 한국은 SW회사가 거의없기때문에 SW엔지니어(+프로그래머)의 역량을 평가하는 잣대를 생각하느라 매니저들이 고민이 많았죠. 어떤이는 매주 codeline을 계산하기도 하고, 어떤이는 출퇴근시간, 어떤이는 문서개수, 어떤이는 CR의 개수... 다 의미는 있지만 주요한 factor는 아닌것인데. 그래서야 한국 공대기피현상이 낳아지겠냐는


가장 좋은방법은 교육 program을 많이 만들고 업무시간에 스스로 원하는 교육을 듣게하고 그 교육속에서 교육내용으로 평가하고, 원하는 프로젝트도 스스로 선택해서 일하게 하면 빠르게 변하진 않아도 점점 좋아질텐데. 단순반복 노가다를 장기간 시키면서 SW역량이 부족하다고 말하는 것은 뭔가 모순이다는 것을 왜 모를까. 


이런 뉴스보면 어린애들은 SW했다가 50살에도 시험보고 있어야 겠구나 생각할테니 이공대 기피현상은 더 심해질텐데. 이런 식으로 SW인력을 관리하겠다고 정해진다면 이것은 삼성 뿐만아니라 한국 SW의 위기입니다.


클리앙 댓글이 재밌네요.

http://clien.net/cs2/bbs/board.php?bo_table=news&wr_id=1954069


---------------

[아시아경제 손선희 기자]삼성전자가 소프트웨어 개발 업무를 담당하는 S직군 직원을 대상으로 개발 역량을 평가하는 한편 부족할 경우 승진에서 제외시키고 더 나아가 타 직군으로 옮기는 강도 높은 인적 쇄신에 나섰다.

13일 삼성 내부 문건에 따르면 삼성전자는 지난해부터 S직군을 대상으로 'SW자격검정'을 실시하며, 올해 내 미취득자에 대해서는 타 직군으로의 전환을 검토할 뿐 아니라 승격에서도 제외할 방침이다. 

올해 1월 기준으로 총 2만9000여명의 국내 S직군 인력 중 약 80%가 자격 취득을 완료했다. 남은 20%의 직원은 기한 내에 검정시험을 통과하지 못하면 '퇴출'을 피하기 어려울 것으로 보여 결과에 따라 많게는 수천 명 단위의 인력 조정이 예상된다.

S직군에 대한 삼성전자의 이 같은 조치는 주력 사업부 중 하나인 무선사업부 소속 직원들을 대상으로 '1등 DNA'를 유지하려는 기조와도 일맥상통한다. 무선사업부는 매년 인력 일부를 타 사업부 혹은 아예 IM(ITㆍ모바일)부문 밖으로 순환 재배치해 왔다. 회사 측에서는 "무선 사업부의 1등 DNA를 타 사업부에 전파하자는 취지"라고 설명하지만 직원들 내부에서는 "낮은 고과를 받자마자 무선사업부에서 쫓겨났다"는 하소연이 뒤따른다.

이번 S직군 대상 SW자격검정은 삼성전자 직원 교육을 담당하는 사내 조직인 인재개발센터 첨단기술연수소가 제공하는 'SW기술역량 검정 툴'을 활용해 진행됐다. 복합적인 조건의 개발 상황이 제시된 한 개의 문항을 세 시간동안 푸는 형태로, 소프트웨어 개발의 기본인 알고리즘에 대한 이해와 기초적인 코딩을 얼마나 해낼 수 있느냐에 초점이 맞춰져 있다. 

S직군은 2011년 10월 SW 강화를 목적으로 신설된 직군으로 삼성전자가 제조하는 기기에 탑재될 소프트웨어 개발을 담당해 왔다.

손선희 기자 sheeson@asiae.co.kr

Posted by 쁘레드
재밌는세상2015. 3. 13. 13:45


민주당의 강력한 대선후보는 힐러리 클린턴이다고 보고 있습니다. 상원하원이 공화당에 넘어간 이상 미국의 유권자들은 민주당에 더 호감을 가질 확률이 높고, 여자라는 점, first lady부터 secretary of state까지, 또한 아내로서 어머니로서 모든것을 다 잘해냈다는 평가가 많을것 같습니다. 본인은 지금까지 좀 빼고 있지만 스스로는 더욱 그렇게 생각할것으로 봅니다. 이런 유력 대선후보를 흔들어놓지 않고선 대선에 이길수가 없겠지요.


당연히 잘못은 했으나, 이런것을 지금에야 들쳐낸것을 보면 정말 정보기관의 정보력은 정말 상상이상인것 같습니다. 2009년에 많은 정치인이 개인 email과 공무 email을 같이 썫어 사용했을것으로 예상됩니다. 그런점을 잘 알고 뒤를 파보면 먼지찾기는 쉽겠지요.


  1. blackberry폰에 나라 메일을 자기 서버로 FW해서 자기 email과 같이 관리한점
  2. 기밀정보도 보호되지 않은 네트웍에서 access했을 가능성
  3. 모르게 해킹당해 기밀이 유출됐을 가능성이 있는점
  4. 자기 도메인에 MS Exchange서버가 돌고 있었다면 IT관련 담당자나 외주업체가 있었을텐데 아무도 이렇게 쓰면 나중에 문제될수 있다고 하지 않았다면 이상하네요.
  5. 블렉베리가 좋긴좋았구나
  6. 한국 대선 후보자중 유력한 후보라면 정말 모든면에서 원칙을 잘 지켜야할듯. 문제인 대표와 박원순 시장은 더욱 명심해야할듯.

Source : WSJ.com

--------------

Mrs. Clinton told reporters her staff erred on the side of disclosure when determining which of her emails were personal and which government business.

Hillary Clinton left the State Department more than two years ago, yet the dispute over her private email account threatens to rage for the next 21 months of the 2016 presidential campaign. On Tuesday, Mrs. Clinton and her office gave the most detailed accounting to date of how and why she used a private account instead of one operated by the federal government.

Below is a timeline of the key points and dates in Mrs. Clinton’s email use.

Jan. 13, 2009: Mrs. Clinton registers the Internet domain clintonemail.com, operated from a private server based in New York.

Jan. 21, 2009: Mrs. Clinton is sworn in as secretary of state.

March 18, 2009: Mrs. Clinton stops using an email address she used as a senator and begins corresponding using an account on her private server, according to her office. Messages from the account she used as a senator are lost and could not be retrieved, her office said. It isn’t clear what sort of account this was.

Dec. 22, 2010: The National Archives and Records Administration issues guidance to federal agency heads stating that all emails, including attachments, relating to government business are considered records to be preserved under the Federal Records Act.

Feb. 1, 2013: Mrs. Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state ends.

March 3, 2013: Gawker publishes Mrs. Clinton’s email address, hdr22@clintonemail.com, after it is revealed by a hacker who compromised the email account of Sidney Blumenthal, a former aide to President Bill Clinton. Mrs. Clinton changed her address in March 2013, though to what she did not say.

Sept. 15, 2014: The National Archives issued new guidance on personal emails, stating that government officials should not use personal email accounts for official business.

Oct. 28, 2014: The State Department requests the work-related emails of former secretaries, including Mrs. Clinton.

November 2014: The House Select Committee investigating Benghazi requests Mrs. Clinton’s emails about the September 2012 incident at Benghazi, Libya, that killed U.S. ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans. About 300 of Mrs. Clinton’s emails from her private account were delivered to the committee, her office said.

The State Department had by then delivered a separate batch of Mrs. Clinton’s emails to the committee in August 2014. Those messages were harvested from other state.gov accounts, Mrs. Clinton’s office said.

Dec. 5, 2014: Mrs. Clinton’s office delivers 30,490 printed emails, about 55,000 pages, to the State Department. Mrs. Clinton’s office said 31,830 emails on her account from her tenure as secretary were deemed private and not delivered. To determine which emails should be delivered to the State Department, Mrs. Clinton’s office sorted first by all messages to or from a .gov email address, then searched for names of State Department and other government officials. Mrs. Clinton’s email cache was also searched for messages that included terms like “Benghazi” or “Libya,” her office said.

March 3, 2015: The New York Times reveals that Mrs. Clinton used a private server for her email while she was secretary.

March 4, 2015: Mrs. Clinton writes on Twitter that she asked the State Department to release her messages.


March 10, 2015: Mrs. Clinton speaks publicly about the email matter for the first time, telling reporters she had used a private account because it was more convenient than keeping separate personal and official email addresses.

______________________________________________________

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----------------

Hillary Clinton said on Twitter late Wednesday that she had asked the State Department to release emails from the personal account she used to conduct official business as secretary of state.


Mrs. Clinton’s statement came amid criticism from Republicans and rising concerns among Democrats over her use of the private account to conduct State Department business.

Here are five things you should know about Mrs. Clinton’s email arrangement:

Some Clinton emails aren’t in State Department custody

Mrs. Clinton’s request for the State Department to release emails apparently refers to 55,000 pages of correspondence from her private account that she turned over to the department late last year, after the department requested such documents from several prior secretaries of state.

Mrs. Clinton’s office has said that all emails relating to official business were included, and that they accounted for 90% of the email messages she sent during her tenure at the State Department.

But it was Mrs. Clinton or her aides who made the determination of which emails to release to the department and which to retain as personal and unrelated to official business. The emails that Mrs. Clinton deemed to be personal presumably would remain private under her request that the department release her records.

The fate of public records requests for Mrs. Clinton’s emails remains unclear

Over the years, many groups and individuals have sought copies of Mrs. Clinton’s emails under federal records-disclosure law. Some groups say their requests produced no records of Mrs. Clinton’s correspondence.

Now, they are wondering whether such records existed but were in the custody of Mrs. Clinton, rather than the State Department.

The liberal environmental group, Friends of the Earth, for example, sought State Department email records as part of its fight against approval of the Keystone XL pipeline. The group was interested in possible communications between Mrs. Clinton and a former campaign aide who became a lobbyist for TransCanada, the company seeking to build the pipeline.

The group filed public-information requests and two lawsuits to obtain emails from the department. It said it eventually received a set of email records that included none from Mrs. Clinton.

Why Mrs. Clinton used a private server remains unclear

Many public employees have employed private email counts instead of or in addition to their government accounts. Less common is the arrangement Mrs. Clinton set up in which she also created a private domain name, clintonemail.com, connected to a computer server linked to her home in Chappaqua, N.Y.

Such an arrangement might give Mrs. Clinton added protections from government or civil subpoenas or record requests, said the Associated Press, which broke news of the server arrangement. Anyone seeking records from her would need to go through her lawyer rather than lawyers for the commercial services that most consumers use, such as Google’s Gmail.

The arrangement may have also carried cybersecurity benefits, as well as risks. But Mrs. Clinton hasn’t explained why she opted for such an arrangement.

Mrs. Clinton isn’t the only public official to use a private domain name and private server

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who is considering a run for the Republican presidential nomination, also used a personal email account, and he owned his email server, according to spokeswoman Kristy Campbell. She said Mr. Bush had given the state emails related to official business and withheld those related to political work or personal matters, similar to Mrs. Clinton’s policy.

A Bush aide said there were differences between the former governor’s setup and Mrs. Clinton’s: Mr. Bush had the private account before taking office; he turned over the emails contemporaneously; and it was widely known that he used a private email account.

The political fallout of Mrs. Clinton’s email practices remains unclear.

Disclosures about Mrs. Clinton’s email arrangement have drawn much attention in Washington and among party leaders. But it is unclear whether voters care or will judge Mrs. Clinton any differently.

One risk to Mrs. Clinton is that the incident could remind voters of her past, making it harder for her to cast herself as a candidate focused on the future. As first lady, Mrs. Clinton several times drew criticism for excessive secrecy.

In 1993, Mrs. Clinton headed a task force devoted to a health care overhaul and faced criticism for devising a plan behind closed doors, rather than opening meetings to the public.

The following year, federal investigators subpoenaed Mrs. Clinton’s billing records from the Rose Law Firm in Arkansas as part of their investigation into the Whitewater land deal. Two years of searches ensued. Finally, an aide found the missing documents in the White House residence.

Already Republicans are painting Mrs. Clinton’s email system as part of a long-standing effort to cloak her actions. They’ve pointed sardonically to an assertion Mrs. Clinton made in her 2008 presidential campaign: “I think I’m probably the most transparent person in public life.”

MORE: 

Hillary Clinton’s Custom Email Based on Server Near Her Home

Emails Trouble Some Democrats

Posted by 쁘레드
경제이야기2015. 3. 13. 13:22

엔화약세를 등에 엎고 일본증시는 과열되고 있네요. 일본 아베정권이 실수하고 있다는 얘기도 많았는데 지금까지 성적표상으로 나쁘지 않네요. 

한국이 문제지. 일본은 20년의 불황에서 탈출하고 한국은 일본식 불황에 들어가고?


Source : http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/12/investing/japan-nikkei-stocks/index.html?iid=HP_LN


nikkei





























Posted by 쁘레드
경제이야기2015. 3. 13. 13:11

Oil Price는 폭락했는데 아직도 production이 줄지않고 있어, 싼가격에 저장하려는 수요와 정부에서 고사직전인 업계를 살리기 위함도 있고 계속 사서 쌓아두고 있다고 합니다. 그런데 저장할수 있는곳이 한계가 있으니 다시한번 가격이 폭락하는 상황이 올것 같다고 합니다.


어떤 찌라시 같은 뉴스에서는 부자들(+사모 or 헷지펀드들) 오일실어 나르는 배를 동째로 사서 바다에 뛰어놓고 시간이 지나기를 기다리고 있다고하는데, 이것도 결국 중단기적으로 시장을 왜곡시켜 폭락을 가져올수 있을것도 같네요.


결국은 오르리라 보는데, 들어가기 좋은 시점은 드릴링회사들이 죽어나가고 이놈저놈 오일하락 오일상승에 배팅했다가 죽어나갔다하는 소식이 들릴때 일것 같네요.

Source : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-12/is-oil-facing-a-storage-problem-in-the-u-s-


Why the U.S. May Run Into an Oil Storage Problem





Posted by 쁘레드
경제이야기/Stock2015. 3. 13. 13:03

ECB양정완화에 따라 어디다 한번 묻어볼까 생각중.

그리스는 조용히 다시 위기로 가고 있는것 같고, 안탁깝게도 아무도 지켜봐주지 않고 있네요. 좀있으면 다시 부각되겠지?

엄청난 유로화 약세에 따라 독일을 중심으로 수출기업들은 주가가 날라다니고 있슴.(좋겠다)


Name▲SymbolLast priceMkt capVolumeAvg vol52wk high52wk lowEPSP/EBetaBeta(y)Cur Ratio
Dow Jones Greece Total...DWGCNDT566.7101350.38536.06
National Bank of Greece...NBG1.224.20B5.62M22.34M5.830.98-0.422.49
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETFVGK53.7912.21B1.17M61.8949.81-3.671.32
T. Rowe Price European...PRESX20.42
AIRBUS GROUP N.V.AIR62.0155,255.0062.4639.686
Bayerische Motoren...BMW118.5576.35B20,212.00119.8574.9€8.8813.34
Daimler AGDAI92.798.91B57,691.0093.11555.21€6.5114.24
Volkswagen AGVOW237.7113.99B2,391.00239148.775€22.0010.8
STMicroelectronics NV...STM9.168.69B1.90M2.47M106.270.1563.151.49



사상 최고의 초강세 달러화. 결국 미국 경제에는 부메랑이 되어 돌아올것이 때문에 쉬어안갈수 없을테고 연준은 쉽게 금리를 못올리게 될것 같음.

1년내 30-40%떨어진 유로화로 저렴해진 유럽여행이나 한번 다녀와야 할듯.


Markets at a Glance

Major Stock Indexes

12:28 AM EDT 3/13/2015
LASTCHANGE% CHG
DJIA17895.22259.831.47%
Nasdaq4893.2943.350.89%
S&P 5002065.9525.711.26%
Russell 20001236.6420.861.72%
Global Dow2506.680.680.03%
Japan: Nikkei 22519255.09263.981.39%
Stoxx Europe 600395.36-0.12-0.03%
UK: FTSE 1006761.0739.560.59%

DJIA

4:33 PM EDT 3/12/2015

18000
17900
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17700
17600
10a
11a
12p
1p
2p
3p
  • 1D
  • 5D
  • 3M
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  • 1Y
  • 3Y

Currencies

12:27 AM EDT 3/13/2015
LAST(MID)CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD)1.0612-0.0025
Yen (USD/JPY)121.480.19
Pound (GBP/USD)1.4867-0.0017
Australia $ (AUD/USD)0.7677-0.0030
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)1.00430.0022
WSJ Dollar Index88.750.17

Futures

12:18 AM EDT 3/13/2015
LASTCHANGE% CHG
Crude Oil47.100.050.11%
Brent Crude57.420.140.24%
Gold1157.96.00.52%
Silver15.6050.0890.57%
E-mini DJIA17877110.06%
E-mini S&P 5002065.751.750.08%

Government Bonds

12:27 AM EDT 3/13/2015
PRICE CHGYIELD
U.S. 10 Year-1/322.123
German 10 Year0/320.213
Japan 10 Year-8/320.403





Posted by 쁘레드
IT이야기2015. 3. 13. 03:04
QCOM에게는 안좋은 소식이네요. MSM은 삼성에게 까이고, Modem은 Apple에게 까이면 주요 매출 소스가 없어지게 됩니다.
Intel도 매출은 늘릴수 있지만 순익은 별로 없을거라고 하고, 최고 승자는 역시 경쟁붙여서 좋은 가격으로 납품받는 슈퍼갑 Apple이 되겠네요.
Intel은 modem만으로 끝내지 않고 AP도 같이 팔려고 할꺼라는데, Apple것이 너무 좋아 쉽게 넘어가지는 않을것 같고, 다만 Apple칩을 Intel Fab에서 생산하는것은 가능할지 모르겠네요. 삼성 견제도 되고요.

기사에 포함된 supplier 그래픽이 너무 좋네요.



Source : http://seekingalpha.com/article/2995886-apple-selects-an-intel-modem-a-glimpse-of-the-future


Summary

  • The report that Apple has chosen an Intel modem for use in a future iPhone has encouraged Intel supporters.
  • However, modem sales do not represent a “foot in the door” for Intel to sell mobile SOCs to Apple.
  • Instead, it's an example of commodity chipmakers fighting for second tier supplier status to a major mobile device maker.

Venture Beat's report on March 10 that an Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) modem had been selected by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) for an upcoming iPhone targeted at emerging markets had Intel bulls salivating, but the celebration was short lived, after Intel lowered its guidance for the March quarter. The modem selection, if it goes through, does offer a glimpse of the future for Intel and Apple, but perhaps not the future Intel bulls have in mind.

Commodity Mentality

One of the things I've noticed in writing for SA for the past almost two years is that fans of Intel also tend to be fans of other large chipmakers, especially Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). It's understandable in retrospect, since they share a common business model as commodity IC manufacturers. Writing in 2013, it struck me as odd, since it was apparent to me that the companies were on a collision course with business objectives that were ultimately mutually exclusive.

With the news that Apple had selected an Intel LTE modem rather than going with its long-time modem supplier Qualcomm, we witnessed just the sort of collision I had in mind. But the ramifications are greater than just the competition between Intel and Qualcomm.

The manufacture of systems on chip (SOCs) for mobile devices continues to shift from the commodity paradigm (Intel, Qualcomm, Nvidia) to the custom paradigm pioneered by Apple in the A4 SOC for the first iPad. More importantly for the commodity processor makers, consumer interest has continued to shift away from commodity PCs in favor of mobile devices. Intel's revised guidance for the March quarter was due primarily to declining PC sales, which Intel attributed to slower than expected business and XP refresh sales.

But PC sales have suffered for some time as a result of competition from mobile devices, and the increasing capability of mobile devices has many consumers and businesses thinking outside of the PC box. At the same time, Apple's success with the latest iPhone 6 and 6 Plus has made the custom paradigm dominant in the mobile device world. This has exerted a Darwinian survival pressure on commodity IC makers in general, and the industry has evolved in order to try to adapt to the new paradigm.

One of the features of this evolution has been considerable consolidation in the industry, with the Freescale/NPX merger being only the most recent. This was proudly highlighted in a chart by Intel CFO Stacy Smith for their annual Investor Meeting:

(click to enlarge)

Intel's naiveté about what the chart truly portends is almost touching. One of the very important survival strategies for the commodity IC makers is to become a preferred supplier of one of the big mobile device makers such as Apple. Here, commodity ICs still have a role to play by supplying functionality that hasn't been incorporated into the SOC.

But it's a role that must get smaller with time, as more and more functionality becomes integrated into the SOC. Thus the decline in the number of suppliers highlighted in the Intel chart.

The shrinking role for secondary commodity ICs has been masked by a number of near-term effects, not the least of which is the sheer growth in the mobile device business since the advent of the iPhone. Another effect has been the incorporation of greater functionality into smartphones themselves, which has often mandated accessory ICs for things such as motion sensors and communications devices such as the NFC radios incorporated into iPhone 6 to support Apple Pay.

The potential loss by Qualcomm of Apple's modem business brings into focus the ongoing pressure on commodity IC makers. The debut of Samsung's (OTC:SSNLF) Galaxy S6, which will use a Samsung custom SOC rather than a Qualcomm SOC provided the confirmation of the forward guidance provided by Qualcomm management in their fiscal 2015 Q1 earnings release:

Looking ahead, we have lowered our revenue outlook for our semiconductor business for the second half of the fiscal year and lowered our EPS expectations.

These changes are largely driven by the effects of:

  • A shift in share among OEMs at the premium tier, which has reduced our near-term opportunity for sales of our integrated Snapdragon processors and has skewed our product mix towards more modem chipsets in this tier (Apple iPhone 6 impact)

  • Expectations that our Snapdragon 810 processor will not be in the upcoming design cycle of a large customer's flagship device(Samsung Galaxy S6 impact)

  • Heightened competition in China (MediaTek, Rockchip, Spreadtrum, Intel)

Comments in bold parentheses are mine.

Qualcomm guided to effectively flat revenue for its fiscal 2015, based on the above listed effects. As the progenitor of the custom SOC paradigm shift, and the most successful, Apple has pushed Qualcomm into second-tier status as an accessory IC supplier, and forced the competition with Intel. This is not a big win for Intel. Intel wants to be the SOC supplier for the mobile devices of the world, just as it has been the CPU supplier for the PCs of the world. This is the Intel business model that so many still believe in.

Winning on Performance and Cost?

Those who believe in the continuing viability of this business model must assume that Apple will eventually choose Intel for its mobile devices for the same reasons it chose Intel for its personal computers: superiority in performance and cost.

This is an argument by analogy that doesn't hold up under close scrutiny. The superiority in performance and cost of x86 over PowerPC was a direct consequence of the small scale of PowerPC production. The revenue generated by PowerPC was never large enough to allow the manufacturers, IBM (NYSE:IBM) and Motorola, to keep up with Intel either in processor design or in manufacturing.

Apple had entered into the PowerPC alliance in the hope of developing a superior processing architecture to Intel. When it became clear that the PowerPC alliance had failed in that key objective, Apple had no choice but to switch to Intel.

In Intel vs. ARM, the tables have been turned, with the benefits of economies of scale favoring ARM architecture devices. Furthermore, the fabless model prevalent in the ARM world demonstrates that it's not necessary for fabless semiconductor makers to own the means of production. The ARM foundries can spread the benefits of production scale across multiple customers.

The success of the fabless model has enabled Apple to produce its own SOCs without significant cost penalty relative to commodity makers such as Qualcomm or even Intel. Although not everyone has accepted my assertionthat Intel Architecture is significantly cost-disadvantaged relative to ARM, I've not seen anyone assert that Intel can offer a cost advantage without some form of marketing subsidy.

So if Intel cannot offer a cost advantage to Apple, can it at least offer a performance advantage? I wouldn't completely rule this out, since it depends on the resourcefulness and creativity of the systems designers at Intel, which I wouldn't want to minimize. However, I think this is a low probability shot, for a number of reasons.

Intel's performance advantage as a result of manufacturing is likely to be short lived. Certainly, Apple's A8x has been demonstrated to be superior to Bay Trail fabricated on Intel's 22 nm process. Even as Intel began fabricating Cherry Trail (now Atom X5, X7) on its more advanced 14 nm process, Samsung was in production on its own Exynos SOCs, and probably Apple's next generation A-series, on 14 nm FinFET as well.

On the processor design front, Apple has demonstrated that it has a very talented design staff, along with the advantage of using a more modern and efficient CPU architecture in ARM. I doubt that there is any design advantage that Intel can achieve that Apple will not match with its own innovations.

Even if Intel could show some marginal performance advantage for Atom X5-7 compared to Apple's next A-series, Apple would still be reluctant to make a switch. The final advantage that Apple derives from its custom SOCs is that they're... custom. Customization allows Apple to tailor the SOC to the needs of the device. The better integration and efficiency afforded by SOC customization is part of what makes Apple mobile devices work so well. This is perhaps the most important consideration. Apple's custom SOCs give it an important discriminator in the highly competitive mobile device market.

Regardless of whom Apple chooses for its modem supplier, the winner will not be Intel, or Qualcomm, but Apple. Apple will get the best possible product at the lowest possible price, with suppliers falling all over themselves to get and keep Apple's business.

Posted by 쁘레드
사진(기) 이야기2015. 3. 11. 11:19

년초에 한국사람이라면 높은 산에 올라가서 멀리 내다보며 신년 계획을 하는것이 맞지만, 저는 미국에서 가장 낮은 곳으로 갔습니다. 85.5m below sea level @ death valley.

모든 사람이 남들보다 높아지려고 할때 더욱 낮은자리로 가서 행복하게 살고 싶다고 다시 다짐했습니다. 저같은 사람도 있어야 traffic이 좀 덜하겠지요?





Posted by 쁘레드
추천영화드라마2015. 3. 11. 11:17


어제 저녁에 세인이를 제우고 Nexflix를 넘기다가 Gu Family Book이라는 제목을 보고 눌러보았습니다. 언뜻들었던 구가의서구나 하는 느낌으로. 3개를 넘겨봐도 이건 별로인데 왜 인기가 많았을까 하는 찰라, 수지가 뛰어가다가 긴머리가 휘날리며 slow video되는것이 아닌가...




4편부터 몰입해서 보고 있습니다. 구가의 서를 엔하위키에서 찾아보니 저처럼 아저씨 팬들이 4편부터 몰빵해서 봤는지 시청률이 고공행진했다고 나오네요.

수지는 왤케 매력적인지 모르겠네요. 하나하나 뜯어보면 안예쁜데... ^^ 미국에서라도 수지 팬클럽에 가입해야겠습니다.


PS:이승기 발연기 이 드라마와 안 어울리더란. ㅋㅋㅋ

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