퀄컴에 대한 Sell과 Buy의 의견이 둘다 있어서 공유합니다. 어느 주식이든 둘다 있을수 밖에 없고 판단은 각자 알아서 하는것이지요. 저는 어느쪽일까요.
팔자에 대한 생각은 인텔과 비교했을때 프리미움이 붙어있다고 보여지는데 이제는 그럴 만한 이유가 없다고 지적합니다. 성장도 못하고 있고 심지어 margin까지급격히 줄고 있습니다. 그리고 4G, 5G로 갈수록 license 비율이 떨어져서 수익이 줄거라 생각하고, 다른 chipset업체와의 경쟁이 치열해 지기때문에 어려울 것이라고 합니다.
사자에 대한 생각은 smartphone 시장이 계속 grow하고 있고, 로얄티 비즈니스가 아주 잘되고 있다. 그리고... 읽어봐도 납득할만한 다른 이유는 못찾겠네요. ^^
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Why I'm Selling Qualcomm
This Fool has held Qualcomm for over two years, and the mobile chip giant has lagged the broader market for the whole time. Is it time to move on?
On valuation
In some ways, Qualcomm represents the Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) of the mobile world. It was quite a symbolic milestone when Qualcomm's market cap overtook Intel's for the first time, although Intel has since reclaimed a higher valuation. However, if we look at how the two companies stack up right now, Qualcomm's premium valuation relative to Intel may not be fully justified.
Metric | Qualcomm | Intel |
|---|---|---|
P/E | 16.3 | 13.7 |
P/S | 4.1 | 2.7 |
Revenue growth (TTM) | 6.9% | 5.7% |
Operating margin (TTM) | 26.7% | 27.4% |
Return on equity (TTM) | 18.8% | 20.8% |
TTM = TRAILING 12 MONTHS. SOURCE: REUTERS.
Qualcomm trades at a premium relative to Intel's valuation metrics, yet fundamental metrics related to growth and profitability don't do much to justify the relative premium.
On royalties
Qualcomm has a lock on 3G technologies, but Qualcomm has a relatively weaker hold on 4G technologies. To be clear, Qualcomm still enjoys its fair share of royalties, but its average royalty rate is undeniably on the decline. Its average royalty rate has fallen from an estimated 4.3% in 2008 to 3.2% in 2013.
There are a couple of other royalty headwinds going forward. Since Qualcomm's royalty depends on the prices of phones, the continued hardware commoditization that's taking place will hurt Qualcomm's piece of the action. Additionally, Qualcomm has been having trouble collecting its royalties in China, believing that local OEMs were underreporting their shipments in order to skirt paying up.
None of this is to say that Qualcomm's royalty business is falling apart; the licensing business saw revenue jump 17% last quarter. Rather, my concern is just that there are some noteworthy challenges going forward.
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Why I More Than Doubled My Qualcomm, Inc. Holdings
A cheap stock with improving prospects? Count me in.
What could make the stock rise?
I view Qualcomm's technology licensing business as a stable "cash cow". The business' revenue is more or less a function of the royalty rate that Qualcomm is able to command and "total reported device sales." The smartphone market is growing, and it seems as though cellular technologies could become more prominent in other areas of computing, spanning from notebook PCs to the Internet of Things.
That's a pretty solid foundation for the company's "cash cow" wireless technology licensing business for years to come.
The chip business, on the other hand, is a bit trickier. MediaTek isn't going away, Samsung's own applications processors seem to be improving, and if Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) ever gets its act together in smartphones, the competitive environment for merchant smartphone silicon will become fiercer.
If Qualcomm can stay ahead of the competition when all is said and done, however -- and I believe Qualcomm's technology is best in class -- the company should retain solid market share, and should benefit from industrywide smartphone unit growth.
Qualcomm also has ambitions to compete outside of the traditional smartphone chip market and is aiming to attack the data center, where unit volumes are lower but average selling prices (and gross profit margins) are higher. Whether Qualcomm will ultimately be successful in leveraging its mobile technology in servers remains to be seen, as competing against Intel will be quite tough.
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http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=QCOM
이번분기 다음분기 이 가치를 유지할수 있을지가 관건일것 같습니다.
| Forward P/E (fye Sep 28, 2016)1: | 13.04 |
| Profit Margin (ttm): | 26.03% |
| Operating Margin (ttm): | 31.24% |
Growth & Valuation
| Earnings growth (last year) | +12.53% |
| Earnings growth (this year) | -8.85% |
| Earnings growth (next 5 years) | +11.50% |
| Revenue growth (last year) | +6.52% |
| P/E ratio | 15.8 |
| Price/Sales | 4.77 |
| Price/Book | 2.85 |
Financials
| Next reporting date | July 22, 2015 |
| EPS forecast (this quarter) | $0.95 |
| Annual revenue (last year) | $26.5B |
| Annual profit (last year) | $7.5B |
| Net profit margin | 28.46% |
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