2015 위안화 절하의 그늘

중국의 위안화 절하로 경제주체들의 손익계산이 분주합니다. 환율전쟁의 시작이라고 하기도하고, 중국의 위완화 절하로 망하는 나라나 회사가 있을거라고 예상하기도 합니다.

• 수입물가 증가로 중국 내수가 위축받을 것이라 하고
• 오일은 급락했고
• Meta & Mining, commodities들도 약세
• Apple도 급락 - 중국 비중이 높다고 생각하는듯. 위안화 절하는 큰 영향없을듯 보이고 Apple의 새로운 Iphone 출시전 이라 play하기 좋은 상황으로 가고 있음
• 중국수출주들은 폭등, Lenovo, Foxconn
• 중국 수출기업과 경쟁하는 반도체 업체들 약세
• 중국에서 수입해오는 업체들은 강세, 월마트
• KFC(모기업 Yum Brands)는 중국 매출이 반이라 폭락
• Air China는 유가 폭락에도 불구하고 달러화 debt가 많아서 폭락
• Hyundai Mobis도 최대피하자 될듯

한국 시장을 보니 현대자동차 주가가 폭등했던데, 폭등할 정도는 아닐것 같은데 잘 못판단하는듯. 위안화가 원화대비 약세로 갈텐데 결국 한국의 수출기업이 타격을 입게될테니 자동차도 오히려 내려가야할 상황이 될듯. 달러대비 원화가 약세가 되기때문에 얻는 이득이 미미할듯.

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Cheaper Chinese Currency Has Global Impact

By devaluing yuan, Beijing is turning to a controversial growth-boosting tactic whose effects reverberate far and wide

Devalued Yuan Set to Take Bite Out of Apple, Give Boost to Chinese Rivals

Weakened currency means reduced China revenue when converted to dollars, while local firms will enjoy lower costs

1. January 1994

China consolidates its competing exchange rates into a single one pegged to the U.S. dollar. Before that, China had an official rate and a rate offered domestically at what were known as swap centers. It comes amid a slew of other reforms intended to shake up the country’s underperforming state-owned enterprises and make the economy more market-focused.

2. July 1994

Unsatisfied with China’s reform effort, the U.S. Treasury Department labels China a currency manipulator – a move that would lend itself to ongoing disputes over exchange rates between Washington and Beijing for the next two decades. It argues that Beijing was using the exchange system to give its companies an unfair political advantage. Though the U.S. has moderated its stance on China’s currency as it has risen against the dollar, the Treasury Department continues to keep that label on China.

3. December 2001

China joins the World Trade Organization. The move, coming after more than a decade of difficult and sometimes testy negotiations, lowers trade barriers for China’s exporters and offers the promise of more foreign investment in the fast-growing economy. But it also requires China to lower trade barriers, including some restrictions on currency exchange.

4. July 2005

China says it will peg the yuan to a basket of currencies rather than just to the U.S. dollar and allow the yuan to trade within a narrow band. It simultaneously lets the currency strengthen by 2.1% against the dollar. The moves follow steady pressure from the U.S. to let the currency strengthen. Though it lets the currency move up and down in a small way, it still leaves the yuan’s fate under the watchful eye of Beijing.

5. July 2008

China puts a stop to the yuan’s rise. With an eye on the still-developing global financial crisis, China informally re-establishes the currency’s peg to the dollar. The move comes as money is flooding into its economy, adding to broader fears about rising inflation. The currency’s rise is also hurting its exporters.

6. June 2010

China says it will let the yuan move again – but with caveats. The announcement follows protests by the U.S. and other G-20 countries that China’s informal peg is putting them at a disadvantage. It also comes as China begins to again explore ways to empower its growing consumer class – something economists say it needs to do to ensure long-term growth, as a stronger currency gives consumers more purchasing power. But China says any moves would be gradual. It was true to its word: The next trading day, the currency strengthens by 0.4% against the dollar.

7. April 2015

The IMF changes tack on the yuan, saying the currency is fairly valued. It cites steady increases in the yuan and financial measures that show the currency is close to its appropriate trading-range. The decision follows several steps that Beijing has taken in recent years to free up the yuan, such as widening the range at which it can trade on a daily basis and providing more ways for the currency to move across borders. Beijing’s ultimate goal is to get the IMF to include the yuan in its basket of reserve currencies.

8. Aug. 11, 2015

China devalues the yuan by nearly 2% amid softening economic growth and weakness in its key export sector. China’s central bank says it made the move as part of an adjustment to how it values the yuan that will make it more sensitive to market sentiment. That echoes calls from many economists that China needs to open up its economy to more market forces. But the timing raises questions about China’s commitment to economic reform, and whether it is moving to liberalize its currency or simply help constituents at home.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/cheaper-chinese-currency-has-global-impact-1439336422?mod=trending_now_3

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China Takes Its Debt-Driven Growth Model Overseas

Banks have ramped up lending to Chinese companies for projects abroad

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-takes-its-debt-driven-growth-model-overseas-1438882687

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China Trade Numbers Further Pressure Commodity Prices

Prices of crude oil, aluminum and copper extend declines as Chinese demand looks set to stay weak