AA Alcoa 추천

작년에 AA에서 쉽게 큰 수익을 봤었는데 요즘 속절없이 무너져서 아주 군침을 돌리며 바라보고 있습니다.

가장큰문제는 aluminum 가격이 고가대비 30%이상 급락한 영향이 큰것 같습니다.

To be updated

• 알루미늄 가격이 떨어진 이유와 전망
• AA의 Aluminum 매출/순이익 대비 비율
• Fundamental analysis
• 회사예상가치
• 경쟁자
• 최근 발표된 인수합병관련 영향
• 내부자 거래동향

 

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Today’s Trading

Previous close	12.96
Today’s open	13.02
Day’s range	12.90 - 13.09
Volume	38,762,284
Average volume (3 months)	21,945,226
Market cap	$15.9B
Dividend yield	0.93%

Data as of 4:00pm ET, 03/20/2015

Growth & Valuation

Earnings growth (last year)	--
Earnings growth (this year)	+20.88%
Earnings growth (next 5 years)	+10.00%
Revenue growth (last year)	+3.57%
P/E ratio	57.1
Price/Sales	0.77
Price/Book	1.29

Competitors

	Today’s change	Today’s % change
AAPRBAlcoa Inc	+0.13	+0.30%
AAPRAlcoa Inc	0.00	0.00%

Data as of 4:02pm ET, 03/20/2015

Financials

Next reporting date	April 9, 2015
EPS forecast (this quarter)	$0.25
Annual revenue (last year)	$23.9B
Annual profit (last year)	$268.0M
Net profit margin	1.12%

Profile

Sector Non-Energy Minerals

Industry Aluminum

Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Klaus-Christian Kleinfeld

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President William F. Oplinger

Corporate headquarters New York, New York

Forecasts

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Data provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday)5: 15.85B Enterprise Value (Mar 21, 2015)3: 22.88B Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 61.76 Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2016)1: 9.90 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 1.05 Price/Sales (ttm): 0.66 Price/Book (mrq): 1.29 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 0.96 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 6.64

Financial Highlights

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Ends: Dec 31 Most Recent Quarter (mrq): Dec 31, 2014

Profitability Profit Margin (ttm): 1.12% Operating Margin (ttm): 9.53%

Management Effectiveness Return on Assets (ttm): 3.89% Return on Equity (ttm): 1.25%

Income Statement Revenue (ttm): 23.91B Revenue Per Share (ttm): 20.57 Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 14.20% Gross Profit (ttm): 4.77B EBITDA (ttm)6: 3.45B Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 247.00M Diluted EPS (ttm): 0.21 Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): N/A

Balance Sheet Total Cash (mrq): 1.88B Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 1.54 Total Debt (mrq): 8.85B Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 59.84 Current Ratio (mrq): 1.49 Book Value Per Share (mrq): 10.07

Cash Flow Statement Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 1.67B Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): 369.12M

Trading Information

Stock Price History Beta: 0.73 52-Week Change3: 7.99% S&P500 52-Week Change3: 13.49% 52-Week High (Nov 21, 2014)3: 17.75 52-Week Low (Mar 26, 2014)3: 11.85 50-Day Moving Average3: 14.96 200-Day Moving Average3: 15.82

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Trefis Analysts estimate a price of $15.98 for Alcoa's stock, about 23% higher than the current market price. * Engineered Products constitute 38% of the Trefis price estimate for Alcoa's stock. * Primary Metals constitute 27% of the Trefis price estimate for Alcoa's stock. * Alumina constitutes 19% of the Trefis price estimate for Alcoa's stock

Analyst Research More » No Credit Suisse report available.    Thomson Reuters Last Reported 3/20/15   S&P Capital IQ Last Reported 3/14/15   SmartConsensus Report Last Reported 03/20/2015   Technical Research    Market Edge Second Opinion Last Reported 3/13/15 Technical Analysis »

 

Shareholder Equity

Shares Outstanding	1.2 B
Institutional Ownership	63.47%
Number of Floating Shares	1.2 B
Short Interest as % of Float	2.50%

Financial Strength (MRQ)

Quick Ratio	0.94x
Current Ratio	1.49x
Debt/Equity	0.72x
Debt/Assets	0.24x

AA's debt to equity ratio indicates that it has been more aggressive with using debt to finance growth than 63% of its peers in the Metal Mining industry. The resultant effect on earnings would be more volatile than related companies.

Valuation (MRQ)

Price/Earnings (TTM)	63.75x
Price/Sales (TTM)	0.66x
Price/Book	1.29x
Price/Cash Flow	9.18x

AA's P/E Ratio is greater than 91% of other companies in the Metal Mining industry. This typically means that investors are willing to pay more for its level of earnings relative to future growth.

Profitability (TTM)

Gross Margin	19.99%
Operating Margin	4.30%
EBITDA Margin	14.93%
Net Profit Margin	0.74%

AA's Gross Margin is comparable to other companies in the Metal Mining industry, which means it has relatively the same amount of cash to spend on business operations as its peers. As indicated by the Operating Margin, AA controls its costs and expenses better than 69% of its peers.

Management Effectiveness (TTM)

Return on Assets	0.48%
Return on Equity	2.17%
Return on Inves. Capital	0.63%

The Return on Equity for AA shows that it is able to reinvest its earnings more efficiently than 75% of its competitors in the Metal Mining industry. Typically, companies that have higher return on equity values are more attractive to investors.

Growth Rate (TTM)

Earnings Per Share	109.5
Sales	3.8
Dividend (MRQ)	0.0

AA's EPS Growth Rate is greater than 92% of its peers in the Metal Mining industry.

Dividend (TTM)

Dividend Yield	0.93%
Payout Ratio	56.68%
Annual Dividend	0.12

AA's dividend yield is less than 94% of other companies in the Metal Mining industry. As indicated by the payout ratio, AA's earnings support the dividend payouts as well as others in the group.

Operating Ratios (TTM)

Asset Turnover	0.65%
Inventory Turnover	6.61%
Receivables Turnover	18.29%
Effective Tax Rate	64.39%

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