경제이야기/Stock2015. 3. 9. 10:38






Div Yield Order
Company nameSymbolLast priceMarket capP/E ratioDiv yield (%)52w price change (%)Current ratioCash/shareReturn on assets (5 yr avg) (%)EBITDA margin (%)
Royal Dutch Shell plc (ADR)RDS.A61.04200.97B12.86.16-15.961.166.896.511.44
Telefonica S.A. (ADR)TEF14.7470.44B14.075.94-6.6512.95.5333.11
LUKOIL (ADR)LUKOY46.2638.77B7.545.66-12.11.64.298.8112.27
CNOOC Ltd (ADR)CEO138.9663.02B75.29-14.51.1432.7815.1148.75
ConocoPhillipsCOP62.7977.32B13.624.65-5.421.314.115.7231.4
Verizon Communications Inc.VZ48.29196.65B19.184.561.751.062.685.6428.35
Chevron CorporationCVX103.55194.69B10.224.13-9.841.327.0310.3420.19
Canon Inc (ADR)CAJ33.0744.15B17.424.047.472.66.956.1416.82
BASF SE (ADR)BASFY95.3387.94B15.43.93-15.161.732.058.913.58
Seagate Technology PLCSTX56.918.68B9.433.813.572.418.1318.618.37
Caterpillar Inc.CAT80.0648.53B13.653.5-17.971.3912.115.3715.25
Syngenta AG (ADR)SYT67.0931.48B19.073.48-11.221.723.578.7819.33
Enersis SA (ADR)ENI15.615.53B15.693.4810.721.232.937.1831.39
Siemens AG (ADR)SIEGY107.8590.62B16.513.48-18.521.3113.085.0111.55
SKY PLC (ADR)SKYAY60.1525.94B10.733.33-4.371.025.31617.83
Emerson Electric Co.EMR56.5638.76B17.943.32-13.051.294.529.2220.46
LyondellBasell Industries NVLYB87.441.70B10.933.2-4.022.145.3918.614.84
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK56.84161.32B13.883.17-0.731.775.545.7153.2
China Mobile Ltd. (ADR)CHL64.36267.61B14.113.1634.361.2616.6813.5236.36
CA, Inc.CA31.713.83B18.653.15-4.521.167.417.2736.83
Per Order
Company nameSymbolLast priceMarket capP/E ratioDiv yield (%)52w price change (%)Current ratioCash/shareReturn on assets (5 yr avg) (%)EBITDA margin (%)
CNOOC Ltd (ADR)CEO138.9663.02B75.29-14.51.1432.7815.1148.75
LUKOIL (ADR)LUKOY46.2638.77B7.545.66-12.11.64.298.8112.27
Seagate Technology PLCSTX56.918.68B9.433.813.572.418.1318.618.37
Chevron CorporationCVX103.55194.69B10.224.13-9.841.327.0310.3420.19
SKY PLC (ADR)SKYAY60.1525.94B10.733.33-4.371.025.31617.83
LyondellBasell Industries NVLYB87.441.70B10.933.2-4.022.145.3918.614.84
Royal Dutch Shell plc (ADR)RDS.A61.04200.97B12.86.16-15.961.166.896.511.44
ConocoPhillipsCOP62.7977.32B13.624.65-5.421.314.115.7231.4
Caterpillar Inc.CAT80.0648.53B13.653.5-17.971.3912.115.3715.25
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK56.84161.32B13.883.17-0.731.775.545.7153.2
Telefonica S.A. (ADR)TEF14.7470.44B14.075.94-6.6512.95.5333.11
China Mobile Ltd. (ADR)CHL64.36267.61B14.113.1634.361.2616.6813.5236.36
BASF SE (ADR)BASFY95.3387.94B15.43.93-15.161.732.058.913.58
Enersis SA (ADR)ENI15.615.53B15.693.4810.721.232.937.1831.39
Siemens AG (ADR)SIEGY107.8590.62B16.513.48-18.521.3113.085.0111.55
Canon Inc (ADR)CAJ33.0744.15B17.424.047.472.66.956.1416.82
Lockheed Martin CorporationLMT197.6662.38B17.633.0418.471.114.617.9314.7
Emerson Electric Co.EMR56.5638.76B17.943.32-13.051.294.529.2220.46
CA, Inc.CA31.7113.83B18.653.15-4.521.167.417.2736.83
Baxter International Inc.BAX67.7336.75B19.053.070.241.715.399.625.96
Market Cap Order
Company nameSymbolLast priceMarket capP/E ratioDiv yield (%)52w price change (%)Current ratioCash/shareReturn on assets (5 yr avg) (%)EBITDA margin (%)
China Mobile Ltd. (ADR)CHL64.36267.61B14.113.1634.361.2616.6813.5236.36
Royal Dutch Shell plc (ADR)RDS.A61.04200.97B12.86.16-15.961.166.896.511.44
Verizon Communications Inc.VZ48.29196.65B19.184.561.751.062.685.6428.35
Chevron CorporationCVX103.55194.69B10.224.13-9.841.327.0310.3420.19
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK56.84161.32B13.883.17-0.731.775.545.7153.2
Siemens AG (ADR)SIEGY107.8590.62B16.513.48-18.521.3113.085.0111.55
BASF SE (ADR)BASFY95.3387.94B15.43.93-15.161.732.058.913.58
ConocoPhillipsCOP62.7977.32B13.624.65-5.421.314.115.7231.4
Telefonica S.A. (ADR)TEF14.7470.44B14.075.94-6.6512.95.5333.11
CNOOC Ltd (ADR)CEO138.9663.02B75.29-14.51.1432.7815.1148.75
Lockheed Martin CorporationLMT197.6662.38B17.633.0418.471.114.617.9314.7
Caterpillar Inc.CAT80.0648.53B13.653.5-17.971.3912.115.3715.25
Canon Inc (ADR)CAJ33.0744.15B17.424.047.472.66.956.1416.82
LyondellBasell Industries NVLYB87.441.70B10.933.2-4.022.145.3918.614.84
LUKOIL (ADR)LUKOY46.2638.77B7.545.66-12.11.64.298.8112.27
Emerson Electric Co.EMR56.5638.76B17.943.32-13.051.294.529.2220.46
Baxter International Inc.BAX67.7336.75B19.053.070.241.715.399.625.96
Syngenta AG (ADR)SYT67.0931.48B19.073.48-11.221.723.578.7819.33
SKY PLC (ADR)SKYAY60.1525.94B10.733.33-4.371.025.31617.83
Telekomunikasi Indns (ADR)TLK45.3523.19B19.863.0813.531.163.3816.4252.13


Posted by 쁘레드
경제이야기2015. 3. 8. 08:18

3/5일 드리 기자회견 내용 요약


3/9(월)부터 국채매입 시작, 매월 600억 EURO 매입.

잔존만기 발행잔액에 비례해서 매입

최저 매입 수익률은 -0.20% same as ECB 초과지준 예치금 금리

유로화 평가절하와 2% 인플레이션까지 올리는것이 목표

유로존 수출회복, 소비회복을 기대


------------

  1. 그리스것은 정말 8월부터 살수 있을까. 그리스가 기존 부채를 상환해야할텐데 돈이 없는데, 어디서 빌리며 누가 꿔주려고 할까? 러시아 중국없이 가능할까?
  2. 매달 600억 유로를 다 못채우면 남은 돈은 어떻게 될까
  3. 채권금리는 계속 떨어질텐데, 주식시장은 어떤 주식이 QE의 효과를 받을까. 자산가치가 올라간다고 생각하면 유럽 부동산이 직접 수혜자가 아닐지. 유로화 가치는 떨어지고 수출주는 효과가 있을텐데, 미국에서 달러로 투자하는 것은 결국 주가 10%상승 유로화 10% 하락으로 상쇄되는것이 아닐지.
  4. 그리스, 스페인 처럼 완전 junk말고 junk에 가까우면서 ECB 국채매입의 효과가 바로 들어날 나라를 찾아 그 나라관련 주에 투자하는게 좋을듯
  5. 미국의 금리인상은 어떤 영향을 줄까?
  6. 그리스가 다시 배째자고 나온다면?
아래는 ETF와 Mutual Fund 추천

Morningstar european funds list
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/europe-stock/$FOCA$ES.aspx
Category NameTicker1 Month(%)YTD(%)3 Month(%)1 Year(%)3 Year(%)5 Year(%)
Europe Stock2.254.691.08-6.2811.267.80
JPMorgan Intrepid European InstJFEIX2.383.88-0.53-8.7815.589.94
JPMorgan Intrepid European SelJFESX2.373.83-0.60-8.9515.339.68
JPMorgan Intrepid European AVEUAX2.323.76-0.68-9.2215.019.41
JPMorgan Intrepid European A LWVEUAX.LW2.323.76-0.68-9.2215.019.41
T. Rowe Price European StockPRESX1.324.131.24-6.3414.5410.61
JPMorgan Intrepid European CVEUCX2.313.67-0.75-9.6214.478.87
JPMorgan Intrepid European BVEUBX2.283.68-0.81-9.6814.448.86
Putnam Europe Equity YPEUYX3.475.741.65-5.1114.409.65
Putnam Europe Equity APEUGX3.445.721.60-5.3314.129.39

--------------

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0963&FundIntExt=INT

VANGUARD FTSE EUROPE ETF (VGK) 

Open54.92
Previous Close55.47
52 - Week Range49.81 - 61.89
10/16/14 - 6/19/14
Avg Volume 
(10 days)
5,072,708
Market Cap 
12.5 B
Shares Outstanding 
228.8 M
Yield 
4.45%
Quarterly Dividend 
0.291
Ex-Dividend Date 
12/22/14
Dividend Payable Date12/29/14
Morningstar Rating as of 2/28/2015
 Overall 21 Funds
 3 Year 10 Funds
 5 Year 9 Funds
-- 10 Year 5 Funds
Strategy
The investment seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of stocks issued by companies located in the major markets of Europe. The fund employs an indexing investment approach by investing all, or substantially all, of its assets in the common stocks included in the FTSE Developed Europe Index. The index is made up of approximately 521 common stocks of companies located in 16 European countries-mostly companies in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, France, and Germany (which made up approximately 32.6%, 14.1%, 13.9%, and 13.3%, respectively, of the index's market capitalization as of October 31, 2014).
VGK Overview
CategoryEurope Stock
Expense Ratio 
0.12%
Net Asset Value 
 

(as of 3/5/2015)
$55.42
Premium / Discount 
(as of 3/5/2015)
0.09%
Total Net Assets 
12.7 B
Inception Date3/4/2005
AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURNS
Quarter-End Month-End

 1 Year3 Year5 YearSince
Inception
3/4/2005
VGK Market Value-7.10%+11.99%+5.65%+4.40%
VGK Net Asset Value-6.56%+12.20%+5.60%+4.43%
MSCI ACWI Ex USA NR USD-3.87%+8.99%+4.43%+4.81%
as of 12/31/2014




































------------------

T. ROWE PRICE EUROPEAN STOCK PRESX

Net Asset ValueToday’s ChangePublic Offer PricePrevious CloseTrade
 20.67-0.310 (-1.48%)20.6720.98  
NASDAQ as of  8:00 PM ET 3/6/15
 
Morningstar Rating as of 2/28/2015
 Overall 114 Funds
 3 Year 83 Funds
 5 Year 77 Funds
 10 Year 64 Funds
Category:   Europe Stock
Fund Characteristic:   Index Fund
The investment seeks long-term growth of capital through investments primarily in the common stocks of companies located (or with primary operations) in Europe. The fund will normally invest at least 80% of its net assets (including any borrowings for investment purposes) in European companies. Under normal conditions, at least five countries will be represented in the fund's portfolio. It may purchase the stocks of companies of any size. The fund seeks to purchase the stocks of companies with quality management and strong cash flows, and does not emphasize either a growth or value bias in selecting investments.
Growth of $10,000
This graph represents the past growth of an investment of $10,000. The performance represented is past performance and is not intended to imply any future performance of the fund. It assumes reinvestment of dividends and capital gains, and does not reflect sales loads, redemption fees or the effects of taxes on any capital gains and/or distributions. The index is used for comparative purposes. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
FUND DETAILS
Net Expense Ratio ** 
0.96%
Gross Expense Ratio 
0.96%
Total Net Assets 
$1.4 B
Fund Inception2/28/90
Order Cut-off Time4:00PM ET
AvailabilityOpen To New Investors
Initial Investment$2,500
Addl. Investment$100
Initial IRA$1,000
Additional IRA$100
Transaction Fee 
Sales Charge 
None
Fund Redemption
Fee
 
2.00%
90 Days
as of 2/28/2015
AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURNS
Quarter-End Month-End
 1 Year3 Year5 Year10 Year
PRESX-5.90%+16.24%+9.15%+6.91%
Category-7.30%+12.86%+6.48%+5.75%
Index-3.87%+8.99%+4.43%+5.13%
as of 12/31/2014
TOP HOLDINGS
4.25%   Nestle SA
2.65%   Allianz SE
2.35%   Intesa Sanpaolo
2.32%   Royal Dutch Shell PLC Class...
2.19%   Wirecard AG
 Top 5 holdings total 13.76%
as of 12/31/2014
























--------------------------


Posted by 쁘레드
경제이야기2015. 3. 8. 08:10

정부가 발표하는 한국의 실업률이 실제 체감률을 잘 못반영하는 통계수치의 한계가 있는것은 어쩔수 었다고 치는데. 3%에서 4%까지 급격히 증가하고 있네요. 청년실업률은 어느세 9%넘어 10%에 가까워지고 있는 추세니 한국 젊은이들이 얼마나 어려운 생활을 격고 있을까 걱정됩니다.


추적60분에서 열정페이에 관한 내용이 나오던데, 자본주의 사회에서 적은돈으로 좋은 노동력을 굴려보고 싶은 욕구는 이해가지만 단순노동을 시키면서 사회의 최저임금도 안줄려고 하는 사람들이 자본주의를 말할 자격이 없다고 생각합니다. 그런 천민자본주의를 배운 기업가가 한국에는 많은것 같습니다.


실제로 열정페이는 얼마간 돈안받고 일하더라도 스스로 독립하거나 좋은 경력을 쌓을때나 가능한 이야기지요. 수요가 넘쳐난다는 이유로 노예로 부리는 것을 막기위한 것이 최저임금이지요. 편의점에서 조차 편의점에서 조차 최저임금을 안주려한다니... 노동부와 인권위가 좀더 자기 역할을 해야할것 같네요.

 200920102011201220132014
08월
2014
09월
2014
10월
2014
11월
2014
12월
2015
01월
아래위원상태펼침아래위원상태펼침아래위원상태펼침아래위원상태펼침아래위원상태펼침아래위원상태펼침아래위원상태펼침아래위원상태펼침아래위원상태펼침아래위원상태펼침아래위원상태펼침
취업자 증감-7.232.341.543.738.659.445.140.643.842.234.7
- 농림어업-3.8-8.2-2.5-1.4-0.8-12.5-12.8-14.6-8.5-9.4-10.4
- 제조업-12.619.16.31.47.921.917.314.210.214.214.1
- 건설업-9.13.3-0.22.2-1.96.45.14.78.48.37.0
- 서비스업17.920.038.641.633.245.336.737.234.529.224.2
실업자88.992.085.582.080.789.084.985.881.888.698.8
실업률(%)3.63.73.43.23.13.33.23.23.13.43.8
청년실업자34.734.032.031.333.136.435.833.633.238.139.5
청년실업률(%)8.18.07.67.58.08.48.58.07.99.09.2


이런 사이트가 있었네요. 한국도 통계자료를 잘 왜곡하지 말고 잘 유지했으면 좋겠습니다.

http://www.index.go.kr/potal/main/EachDtlPageDetail.do?idx_cd=1063



Posted by 쁘레드
경제이야기2015. 3. 8. 08:00

1. 성장률 목표 7.0%

필요하고 가능한 목표로 정의. 실제적으로 6%대로 떨어질 가능성이 높은데, 정부가 7%까지는 만들려고 할거라는 선언인듯. 중국의 경제가 급속도록 식고있는것은 사실인듯. 내수부양과 자연보고, 분배등으로 잘 이어지면 좋은 나라될듯.


2. 소비자 물가 목표 3.0%

3.5%에너 3.0%로 낮쳐졌지만, 실제적인 성장율이 6%대일텐데 3%은 좀 높은것 같다는 생각이 듬.


3. 재정적자 목표 2.3%

지난해 2.1%에서 약간 상향했는데, 떨어지는 성장을 잡으려면 국가가 좀더 풀어야 할것 같은데, 중국 지도부는 미국식 무식하게 돈푸는것에 상당히 거부감이 있어 보임. 경제대국 답지는 않은것 같지만, 미국과 같은 달러화 지위도 없고 개인적으로 잘하는 거라 생각됨.


4. 일자리 추가 1000만명.

인구를 생각하면 이정도로 될가 생각도 듭니다.

현재 실업률이 궁금한데 도시 실업률 목표가 4.5% 라고 함.



Posted by 쁘레드
경제이야기2015. 3. 4. 07:15

First from live writer.

 

Sergio Heiber

Special situations, event-driven, newsletter provider, small-cap

Profile| Send Message| 

Follow (97 followers)  

Nuance Is Doing OK And Getting More Interesting

Mar. 3, 2015 2:26 PM ET  |  About: Nuance Communications, Inc. (NUAN)

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

Summary

  • A third activist fund has taken a position.
  • Quarterly earnings again beat expectations.
  • Chart double bottom signals a trend reversal.

    Nuance Communications (NASDAQ:NUAN) is recognized as the premier voice and recognition technology company in the world. This company grew by spending heavily to acquire its competition, a formula that has not worked out well with many publications labeling CEO Paul Ricci as the worst CEO. NUAN has been undergoing a transformation in its earnings model, now relying heavily on recurring revenue. I think there are reasons to be optimistic about NUAN's transformation and future prospects.

    Reviewing NUAN's net new bookings, cash flow, and recurring revenue stream provide an indication that and NUAN is on target with their game plan. Theories that NUAN will be acquired or do a spin off are becoming less frequent but activist interest is increasing, and that is a good sign.

    New net bookings fell 5.5% Y/Y in FQ1 to $303.8M. The company cited currency exchange issues as a partial cause but still forecast FY15 net new bookings growth of 4%-5%. Despite labeling the results "disappointing" CEO Paul Ricci stated in the recent earnings call, "we do expect for bookings growth to accelerate in the back-half of the year simply because of the timing of some of those deals. And of course, Nuance historically as always had a strong quarter in its fiscal fourth quarter relatively speaking in both bookings and revenues."

    Cash flow grew 22% over the prior year. Management has put the cash right back in to support the stock price with an ongoing share buyback program having spent $200 million out of the approved $500 million.

    Recurring revenue grew 4% year-over-year and now comprises 66% of our total revenue as the company continues to succeed in shifting their earnings model away from licensing deals to more predictable and stable recurring revenue. The company believes that it is at the point were declining licensing revenue will have a lesser impact on earnings growth from recurring revenue.

    Takeover or split up rumors have been abundant since Icahn became involved in 19. Goldman research concluded that there will be no buyout and lowered NUAN to a SELL rating. "We do not see NUAN as a potential acquisition candidate." But new rumors continue to pop up. A possible BAIDU takeover was the subject of this article. But NUAN may end up alright on its own.

    A technical evaluation indicates a turnaround in stock price. There seems to be a change in direction. The stock price had been in a downtrend, but a trend reversal is in progress after a double bottom formation in December. (chart)

    During the last quarter, another activist fund, Okumus took a 5% stake joining Icahn who owns 19% and ClearBridge at 7%. This is noteworthy, as hedge funds tend to be ahead of the crowd in finding value. Okumus is not as well known as Icahn but is not an industry lightweight. The Okumus Fund was recently in the lead in the HSBC hedge fund sweepstakes.

    On February 5th, the company reported EPS of $0.25 beating estimates by $0.03 and revenue of $489M ahead of estimates by $2.13M. On fundamental valuation, NUAN is cheap and that as evidenced by the increasing interest from hedge funds. The stock sells at a modest PE of 13 and a PEG of .63 despite analysts' projections of earnings growth for the next five years of 20%.

    Despite beating estimates, management was very cautious about forward guidance and it is still too early to call NUAN a turnaround story, but there are signs that a turnaround is taking shape and that a foundation for earnings growth has been laid out.


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경제이야기2015. 3. 4. 06:03

WSJ에서는 78.58B라는 계산



Source : http://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-america-reaches-16-65-billion-settlement-1408626544

---------------------------

Record Bank of America Settlement Latest in Government Crusade

Bank Agrees to Pay $16.65 Billion in Cash and Consumer Aid

Bank of America Chief Executive Brian MoynihanENLARGE
Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan BLOOMBERG NEWS

Bank of America Corp.'s financial-crisis hangover may finally be fading.

On Thursday, the bank agreed to pay $16.65 billion to settle the government's accusations it sold flawed mortgage securities in the run up to the 2008 crisis, the largest settlement ever reached between the U.S. and a single company.

For the U.S. government, the deal is a chance to put an exclamation point on a string of crisis-era enforcement actions and lawsuits that have cost big U.S. banks tens of billions of dollars. The Charlotte, N.C. lender will have to pay $9.65 billion in cash to the Justice Department, six states and other government agencies. The bank also will provide $7 billion in consumer aid by modifying mortgages for borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth, demolishing derelict properties or other relief.

ENLARGE

For Bank of America, the settlement is a bitter coda to its decision in 2008 to buy two companies, Countrywide Financial Corp. and Merrill Lynch & Co., as they teetered during the housing crisis. Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan , who has spent his 41/2 years as CEO wading through litigation, has told investors this is the last of the big crisis-era problems. His next challenge: proving the bank has the mettle to make money in an era of weak loan demand and low interest rates.

In a statement, Mr. Moynihan said the settlement "is in the best interests of our shareholders, and allows us to continue to focus on the future." Giant legal charges have depressed the bank's earnings for years, frustrating some investors. The bank said the settlement will cut third-quarter pretax earnings by $5.3 billion, or 43 cents a share after tax.

Shares in the company rocketed more than 4%, to close at $16.16, as investors welcomed the resolution of a long-running legal headache.

Bank of America agreed to pay a settlement of $16.65 billion over its mortgage lending, the largest ever between the U.S. and a single company. WSJ's Aaron Lucchetti joins MoneyBeat with the details.

The Justice Department's case against Bank of America provides perhaps the clearest window yet into the behavior that fueled the 2008 financial crisis: Lenders knowingly providing credit to borrowers who couldn't afford the loans and selling those mortgages to unwitting investors. Borrowers ultimately defaulted, sending them into foreclosure and saddling investors with hefty losses.

Many of the mortgage securities in question were made by Countrywide and Merrill Lynch. But the government found problems with Bank of America's own mortgage securities as well, including efforts to circumvent underwriting standards by changing applicants' financial information.

In at least one instance, an underwriter at Bank of America made more than 40 attempts to win an "accept" rating from an internal Countrywide system—known as CLUES—that would allow Bank of America to make a loan, according to a statement of facts signed by the U.S. and Bank of America.

"One underwriter characterized what she was doing as trying to 'trick' the CLUES system into giving an 'accept' rating," according to the document.

The ramifications of originating weak loans was predicted by former Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo, who warned in an Aug. 1, 2005 email to other executives that real-estate developers were anticipating a condo-market collapse in areas like South Florida and Las Vegas, and said the firm should avoid putting certain loans on its own balance sheet. Mr. Mozilo was worried the large increase in monthly payments required by many of the Countrywide-issued mortgages ultimately would cause borrowers to default.

Attorney General Eric Holder announces the settlement with Bank of America Thursday.ENLARGE
Attorney General Eric Holder announces the settlement with Bank of America Thursday. EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY

"The simple reason is that when the loan resets in five years there will be enormous payment shock and the borrower is not sufficiently sophisticated to truly understand the consequences then the bank will be dealing with foreclosure in potentially a deflated real estate market. This would be both a financial and reputational catastrophe," Mr. Mozilo wrote, according to Justice Department documents.

Prosecutors in Los Angeles are preparing to file civil charges against Mr. Mozilo and other former Countrywide executives, according to a person familiar with the situation. Mr. Mozilo's lawyer, David Siegel, said, "There is no sound or fair basis, in law or in fact, to pursue any claims against Angelo Mozilo."

Countrywide, in particular, has morphed from trophy to albatross for Bank of America. The bank had a history of gobbling up competitors when it bought Countrywide in 2008 and the deal launched it to the top of the mortgage world.

The purchase, though, has brought legal headaches and regulatory scrutiny, including a multistate settlement over alleged predatory lending practices just months after Bank of America bought the lender. The bank's mortgage unit hasn't turned a profit in years.

The settlement comes on the heels of similar, but smaller, deals over precrisis mortgage-related conduct with Citigroup Inc. for $7 billion and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co for $13 billion. The Justice Department is expected to turn its attention next to other banks accused of selling flawed mortgage securities, including Goldman Sachs GroupInc. and Wells Fargo& Co., according to people familiar with the matter. Those cases are expected to be smaller than the previous three settlements.

"Bank of America has acknowledged that, in the years leading up to the financial crisis that devastated our economy in 2008, it, Merrill Lynch and Countrywide sold billions of dollars of RMBS backed by toxic loans whose quality and level of risk they knowingly misrepresented to investors and the U.S. government," Attorney General Eric Holder said at a news conference, referring to residential mortgage-backed securities.

The settlement resolves claims by various governments and agencies and releases the bank from numerous matters related to mortgage securities, collateralized debt obligations and mortgage origination. It doesn't release the bank from criminal liability and the Justice Department reserved the right to file both criminal and civil charges against individuals.

The settlement caps months of tense negotiations, during which the bank's lawyers argued repeatedly—and unsuccessfully—the firm was being unfairly punished for misdeeds of Countrywide and Merrill, according to people familiar with the talks. Prosecutors were similarly unmoved by the bank's argument it already had paid mightily for crisis-era sins, shelling out some $60 billion before Thursday's settlement.

During negotiations, Mr. Moynihan enlisted two trusted lieutenants— General Counsel Gary Lynch and chief strategy and marketing officer Anne Finucane —to call board members and keep them informed.

For weeks, the bank refused to up its offer beyond $13 billion, wary of comparisons to J.P. Morgan's $13 billion settlement. The bank's resistance weakened one day in late July, when a New York judge ruled that the bank would have to pay more than $1 billion over claims related to an old Countrywide loan program, and when Mr. Holder told Mr. Moynihan that the government stood ready to file a lawsuit prepared by the U.S. Attorney's Office of New Jersey.

After that phone call with Mr. Holder, Mr. Moynihan asked for time to call a few other decision makers, including board chairman Chad Holliday. The reaction from others at the bank was that a $17 billion deal was expensive—but worthwhile if it could resolve a big chunk of its problems.

The statement of facts, more detailed than those released in the J.P. Morgan and Citigroup settlements, paint an unflattering picture of Countrywide and Merrill, as well as Bank of America.

The findings against Countrywide are particularly damning. The lender, an advocate of home ownership but also a pioneer of subprime and other risky loans, was itching to expand market share in the early 2000s. When potential customers with lousy credit scores applied for mortgages, Countrywide employees sometimes shuffled them to "shadow" underwriting guidelines. The firm often didn't verify whether borrowers were being truthful about their income, and offered loans allowing borrowers to pay less than just the interest owed —meaning the amount borrowers owed grew over time instead of shrinking.

When Countrywide's executives were told that some borrowers appeared to be overstating their income, the chief risk officer shrugged off the concerns, writing in an email, "Many (most?) borrowers seek to report as little income as possible on their tax return."

"We need to be careful painting all of this as a 'misrep,'" the chief risk officer wrote. "Although that is obviously the case in some (perhaps many) instances, it won't be the case in all cases."

The Justice Department also found that Merrill Lynch ignored warnings from an outside vendor who noted the high number of "EV3" loans in certain subprime mortgage securities. The EV3 label was given to particularly questionable mortgages, such as those made to borrowers who had recently declared bankruptcy. Merrill traders, though, often overruled those labels.

In an internal email about a particular pool of loans, a consultant in Merrill Lynch's due-diligence department wrote: "[h]ow much time do you want me to spend looking at these [loans] if [the co-head of Merrill Lynch's RMBS business] is going to keep them regardless of issues?...Makes you wonder why we have due diligence performed other than making sure the loan closed."

MARKET TALK

Whistleblowers' Part in BofA Settlement Whistleblowers may have played a role in one of the investigations that led to Bank of America's giant $16.65 billion settlement. The Justice Department says one strand of its case stemmed from government probes into the origination and sale of "defective" mortgages by BofA and its acquisition of Countrywide -- and that three sealed lawsuits filed by whistleblowers over those practices are being resolved as part of the settlement. No immediate word from Justice Department about the exact role of whistleblowers or whether they'll get a cut of the $1 billion BofA is paying over that portion of the overall settlement. (michael.rapoport@wsj.com)

RMBS Investors Expect Losses from Settlement Investors in residential mortgage-backed securities should brace for more principal writedowns on their securities when BofA starts meeting its consumer relief obligations under the $16.65 billion settlement with the Justice Department, said two big bondholders. Investors have long complained that banks are modifying loans they do not own, pushing losses to private investors but still taking credit under terms of settlements. One group, the Association of Mortgage Investors, has been trying to curb the right for such modifications in settlements but was denied a seat at the BofA talks by the DOJ, according to Debtwire. (albert.yoon@wsj.com)

Market Talk is a stream of real-time news and market analysis that's available on Dow Jones Newswires

Write to Christina Rexrode atchristina.rexrode@wsj.com and Andrew Grossman atandrew.grossman@wsj.com


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경제이야기2015. 3. 4. 05:52
2007년 미국 경제위기때 BOA가 한 짓때문에 16건 이상의 굴찍한 소송에서 settle했는데 총 금액이 $68B 가량 된다고 한다. 위기 당시에 Countrywide를 정치적 입김으로 인수한게 가장 타격이 큰것이라 판단됨.



---------------------

Source : http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-08-21/bank-of-america-adds-a-mortgage-settlement-to-its-collection

The Bank of America mortgage-settlement-industrial complexgenerated another settlement today. This one is the biggest so far, but it is also the most recent so far, and the word "record" gets used a lot in Bank of America settlement announcements. If there's a $30 billion Bank of America mortgage settlement in November, my mind will remain un-blown.

Here are the Bank of America mortgage-related penalties that I am aware of:

Some of those bars aren't visible to the naked eye but trust me, they're there. The smallest is the $20 million 2011 settlement with the Justice Department for the 160 times that Countrywide "wrongfully foreclosed upon active duty servicemembers without first obtaining court orders." (Bank of America acquired Countrywide in June 2008, to the former's eternal regret.) The biggest -- so far! -- is today's $16.65 billion settlement for a grab-bag of assorted mortgage misdeeds. The total -- again, not a comprehensive total of Bank of America's mortgage costs, just the results of a casual review of mortgage-related settlements that were publicly announced -- is about $68 billion.1 So far.

That chart doesn't convey the goofiness of all of this. Perhaps this one will:2

Source: my own horrifying labor, public documents, other.
SOURCE: MY OWN HORRIFYING LABOR, PUBLIC DOCUMENTS, OTHER.

What have we learned? Good lord, nothing, right? The first settlement on the chronological chart is a 2010 class action settlement with Countrywide shareholders: People who bought Countrywide shares between March 2004 and March 2008 sued Countrywide for not informing them that its underwriting was rotten and would ultimately bring down the company. Today's pile of settlements includes this $20 million settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for not informing shareholders that Countrywide's and BofA's pre-crisis underwriting was rotten and would ultimately incur huge costs. If you squint, they're the same settlement, four years and $580 million apart.

While you're squinting, take a look at that complex of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cases at the top of the chart. In its heyday, Countrywide sold some bad mortgages to Fannie and Freddie. This led to disputes, litigation, anger. In 2011, Bank of America settled those disputes with Freddie, and partially settled with Fannie, for a total of about $2.8 billion. In 2013, it settled again with Fannie, this time for a bit over $10 billion. In March 2014, it settled with the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Freddie and Fannie's regulator, for about $9.3 billion.3 In July 2014, it was ordered to pay $1.27 billion to the Department of Justice over a subset of those loans originated pursuant to the unfortunately named, and also just unfortunate, "Hustle" program. And today'sStatement of Facts has a section that begins:

From at least 2004 through 2008, Countrywide Home Loans, Inc. and Countrywide Bank, FSB (collectively, "Countrywide”) originated residential mortgage loans and sold certain of those loans to the Federal National Mortgage Association (“Fannie Mae”) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (“Freddie Mac”) (collectively, “government-sponsored enterprises” or “GSEs”).

And then launches into how bad those mortgages were. Countrywide sold bad mortgages to Fannie and Freddie from at least 2004 until 2008. This is now the fifth time it's been ordered to pay over a billion dollars in penalties because of the bad job it did with those mortgages.4 Maybe it's the last! Who knows. But it's the fifth.5

popular criticism of the modern approach to punishing bank misdeeds -- giant fines imposed on the banks, not much in the way of individual punishments and a preference for settlements rather than trials -- is that it turns the fines into just a "cost of doing business," normalizing misbehavior rather than preventing future wrongdoing. You can tell that this criticism is right because Attorney General Eric Holder protested way too much today:

I want to be very clear: the size and scope of this multibillion-dollar agreement go far beyond the “cost of doing business.” This outcome does not preclude any criminal charges against the bank or its employees. Nor was it inevitable, over these last few weeks, that this case would be resolved out of court.

I love that last part: Sure, people criticize the Department of Justice for settling too many cases. And sure, the DOJ settled this case anyway. But it could have not settled this case. Doesn't that count for something?

I have mixed feelings about this line of criticism,6 but never mind that now. Whatever you think about fines versus prison, or trials versus settlements, or corporate versus individual responsibility: Just look at all those settlements! Every mortgage misdeed that Bank of America (or Countrywide) committed has come back to haunt it two, five, eight times. And every mortgage misdeed that Bank of America committed has a parallel in the settlements of JPMorgan, and Citi, and pretty much every other bank, all of which read more or less the same. The mortgage settlement business has a life -- an immortality? -- of its own.

Isn't that bad? The constant drumbeat of settlements really does normalize misbehavior: If every bank is constantly settling charges of mis-selling mortgages, then mis-selling mortgages can't really be thatbad, can it? If every bank is constantly paying billions of dollars in fines, then paying billions of dollars in fines becomes less shameful. And if every bank is fined over and over again for the same conduct, then the attitudes of the bankers will shift. It is no longer, "Ooh, we were bad, sorry." It becomes, "Oh, come on, this again?" The shame is gone, replaced by resentment. And shame is much more useful than resentment for preventing misconduct. If fining banks is just business as usual for regulators, then paying those fines will be business as usual for banks.

1 Many caveats here, including that I use "settlements" loosely to include the results of one (entertainingjury trial. For the most part I have ignored ordinary-course putback and similar claims that are disclosed in Bank of America's filings without separate announcement; these are just individually publicized settlements, and just the ones I found. Bloomberg News counts "more than $70 billion" in payments. Good earlier settlement timelines, which have informed this chart, include this from Bloomberg News and this from the Wall Street Journal.

2 Obviously this is not easy to follow, and you should not take as science for instance the allocation among entities or exactly how the arrows flow. Also: Never build a flowchart in Excel, feh.

3 Or something, maybe $9.5 billion, or $6.3 billion, depending how you count the repurchases. The chart takes the aggressive number. Also I should say, this case is about Bank of America and Merrill as well as Countrywide and, unlike the other cases in that paragraph, this one is about the sale of private label mortgage-backed securities, not the sale of loans directly to Fannie and Freddie.

4 And that's not even counting those shareholder lawsuits about how it failed to disclose to shareholders the problems with the mortgages that it was selling to Fannie.

5 Similarly, from today's announcement:

The settlement includes a statement of facts, in which the bank has acknowledged that it sold billions of dollars of RMBS without disclosing to investors key facts about the quality of the securitized loans. When the RMBS collapsed, investors, including federally insured financial institutions, suffered billions of dollars in losses. 

But this is something like the eighth such settlement! Bank of America settled(twice!) with a big bondholder group, and then settled separately with another bondholder class, and reached separate settlements with bond-insurer types likeAssured GuarantyMBIAFGIC and AIG. Did anyone on earth not know that Bank of America sold bad residential mortgage-backed securities to investors with insufficient disclosure?

6 I tend to agree, for instance, that fining the public shareholders of a corporation is a pretty diffuse way to deter misbehavior by individual agents of that corporation, and that throwing those agents in jail would at least be more direct. On the other hand, I don't want anyone to be put in jail without a very good reason, and the widespread belief that there's plentiful evidence of criminal conduct by high-level bankers seems to me to be mostly a fantasy. Today'sStatement of Facts, though bland and negotiated and biased, paints a pretty clear picture: The misbehavior at Countrywide and Bank of America and Merrill Lynch was an emergent property of those institutions and the market in which they operated, not the conscious criminal decision of a few high-level executives. (Except maybe one!) There are no twisted villains cackling maniacally at the thought of the bondholders they'd deceive. It's all people saying, "Well, if our competition prices it, we should price it too," and then not looking too hard at the warning signs they didn't want to see.

Similarly, I take the point that public trials will probably disclose more information about misconduct than will settlements with Statements of Fact as bland as today's (or JPMorgan's). But I don't think that rolling the dice on multibillion-dollar cases with a randomly selected pool of laymen is a good idea either for prosecutors or for banks. And if your goal is to shape financial industry behavior, then jury trials don't seem to help much with that: Random chance is not the way to do complex regulation.

To contact the writer of this article: Matt Levine at mlevine51@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this article: Zara Kessler at zkessler@bloomberg.net.


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Previous close14.79
Today’s open14.84
Day’s range14.74 - 15.02
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Dividend yield0.80%
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Earnings growth (this year)+26.25%
Earnings growth (next 5 years)+10.00%
Revenue growth (last year)+3.57%
P/E ratio65.8
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Next reporting dateApril 9, 2015
EPS forecast (this quarter)$0.26
Annual revenue (last year)$23.9B
Annual profit (last year)$268.0M
Net profit margin1.12%

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Today’s Trading

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Average volume (3 months)2,286,479
Market cap$4.7B
Dividend yield--
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Growth & Valuation

Earnings growth (last year)-27.03%
Earnings growth (this year)-0.35%
Earnings growth (next 5 years)+16.00%
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