Dalta Airlines(DAL) - 3Q earning 정말 기대중

오랜 저유가를 예상하고 항공주에 투자할것을 살피다가 실적 계선까지 보이는 델타항공에 상당히 기대를 많이하고 들어갔는데 아직까지 큰 수익이 안나고 있었죠. 이번달에는 결과에 상관없이 정리할 예정인데 이번주 수요일로 예정된 어닝은 보고나올 예정입니다.

차트상으로는 단기적으로 폭등할 차트는 아닌거 같지만 서서히 상승하고 있다고 보여지는 안정적인 차트인것 같습니다. 어닝때 오르면 50불 넘기기는 쉬울것 같고 떨어져도 45불에서 지지가 될것으로 보고 있습니다. 최악의 상황에도 손실은 없이 나올거라 예상됩니다.

아래 기사 요약은,

• 기름값 하락으로 작년에 비해 미국 항공사들이 전체적으로 25% 이상 실적이 올랐을것으로 보고 있다.
• 투자가 들은 기름값 하락만으로 손익이 계선되는 것에는 큰 관심이 없다.
• DAL은 미국 메이저 항공사중 가장 실적계선이 좋은 회사중 하나로 이번 Quarter에 $11.2B 영업이익과 $1.35B 순이익을 기록할것으로 예상된다
• 이 실적은 작년 같은 분기의 순이익이 $357M에 비하면 거의 4배나 좋아진 실적이다.
• Cost를 중이기위해 8만명중 1만명을 줄였다. 여전히 조종사, 기내승무원, 예약받는 사람등은 계속 채용중이다

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Delta to Give Strong Start to Airlines’ Earnings Season

Carrier expects record profit as low fuel prices mask a variety of challenges for industry

Delta Air Lines Inc. on Wednesday is slated to kick off the U.S. airline industry’s financial-reporting season with strong earnings. But investors may be more focused on other indicators to gauge whether the sector’s strong performance can continue in the face of numerous challenges.

Delta, the No. 3 U.S. airline by traffic, has said it expects to report record profit for the third quarter, after delivering the same in the June 30 period. Larger rivals American Airlines Group Inc. and United Continental Holdings Inc., along with Southwest AirlinesCo., also are expected to be highly profitable when they report their results the following week.

Deutsche Bank estimates U.S. airlines will deliver total pretax profit of $7.3 billion for the third quarter, up from $5 billion a year ago. Operating-profit margins are expected to expand despite a small drop in overall revenue.

Low fuel prices masked many ills in the September quarter, seasonally the busiest of the year for airlines. Economic growth forecasts are softening, labor rates are on the rise, and fare weakness continues on international routes and in some domestic markets. Meanwhile, oil prices have started rising again—jumping 25% in the past month—once again creating volatility in the industry’s No. 2 expense after labor.

Investors aren’t interested in “fuel-driven earnings growth,” Deutsche Bank said. Instead, it said, investors will be watching for signs of whether and when the industry’s declining unit revenue is going to turn positive again.

Unit revenue, considered a key benchmark, measures how much money airlines take in for each passenger flown a mile. It has been declining throughout 2015 compared with year-ago periods, as airlines added more seats than there was demand for, and skirmishes between rapidly expanding discount carriers and big carriers resulted in fare-cutting.

Delta has been the best-performing of the three biggest U.S. airlines over the past several years. It is expected to report third-quarter profit of $1.35 billion, or $1.72 per share, on revenue of $11.1 billion, a huge jump from the $357 million in profit on similar revenue a year ago.

Investors took heart earlier this month when the Atlanta-based company said it expected operating margins of 20% to 21% for the latest quarter, compared with initial guidance of 19% to 21%. It also said unit revenue would decline 4.5% to 5.5%, better than the earlier view that it could be down as much as 6.5%. In July, Delta said that by trimming its capacity in the second half of 2015, it hoped to return to flat unit-revenue performance by year-end.

Wolfe Research is dubious. The firm predicted in a recent research note that unit revenue for the industry could decline until at least the third quarter of next year. “It would be wildly optimistic to assume anything but negative” unit-revenue growth for Delta in the current fourth quarter, it said.

There are other potential clouds on the horizon. Delta hasn’t yet shed its hedging losses, having bet wrong on fuel’s direction in the past several quarters. The company has said it expects to incur about $200 million of hedge losses in the third quarter. Still, its third-quarter fuel price, factoring everything in, was $1.80 to $1.85 a gallon, comparing favorably to $2.90 a gallon a year earlier.

Delta also is grappling with wage inflation, which is pressuring its costs. It recently said it would reduce an undisclosed number of salaried positions to improve productivity at a time when revenue is declining. The company, which has 10,000 management and salaried workers out of 80,000 employees, said it would continue hiring pilots, flight attendants, reservationists and other front-line workers.

Delta, which had an industry-leading profit-sharing program, also made some recent changes that could trim those payouts. It increased base-pay rates for most of its workers by 14.5%, effective Dec. 1. Delta’s pilots, its only major unionized group, in July rejected a new labor contract offering them higher pay while also significantly cutting their profit-sharing program. Whatever is ultimately approved is sure to raise costs.

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