싸이노젠보다 싸이노겐이 더 발음에 가까운듯.

구글로 부터 안드로이드를 가져오고 싶다는 말도안되는 회사에서 이제 가능할것 처럼 보이는 회사가 되었네요. 아주 오래된 삼성 노트1에 싸이노젠을 설치했더니 정말 날라다닙니다. 지금 노트4보다 더빠릿해진것 같네요.

이미 투자회사도 많이 있고, 요즘 hire하는것 보니, 이미 날라가기위한 펀드는 충분한것으로 보입니다.내년 상장을 목표로 하고 있을듯.

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Cyanogen Taps Microsoft, Qualcomm Veterans For Fight To Control Android

It’s hard to keep Kirt McMaster quiet.

The CEO of Cyanogen, the Palo Alto startup with a bold plan to wrest control of Android from Google, is known for his brashness and bravado. Minutes into my first interview with him in January, he was summing up Cyanogen’s improbable mission: “We’re putting a bullet through Google’s head.” Even one of his leading investors told me they wished McMaster wouldn’t “poke the bear too many times and so loudly.”

Yet in the past few months, McMaster has been unusually circumspect. After a flurry of partnership announcements at the Mobile World Congress in early March, and news that Microsoft MSFT +1.16% had joined forces with the company in April, Cyanogen and McMaster went largely silent.

But on Tuesday, when I caught up with him to check on the progress of his crusade, McMaster was his usual, blustery self.

“I’m even more bullish,” he said.

On Wednesday, Cyanogen announced two key engineering hires: Stephen Lawler, a veteran of Amazon and Microsoft, who is joining as senior vice president of engineering, and Karthick Iyer, a Qualcomm QCOM +0.27% vice president and engineering lead on Android, who will be vice president of global systems.

McMaster said Lawler, an Amazon vice president who previously worked as CTO for Bing Maps at Microsoft, will help to lead Cyanogen’s efforts to develop a suite of mobile services — in house and through partnerships — to compete with those offered by Google GOOGL +0.87%. Iyer, he said, will help broaden the Cyanogen platform as more and more manufacturers agree to build smartphones based on the Android variant.”When we are able to attract people like that to the team, it’s invigorating,” McMaster said. “Other people tend to follow. It’s good for the company. It shows people we can deliver on the promise.”

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사이애노젠모드(CyanogenMod)는 안드로이드를 구동하는 일부 스마트폰에 설치 및 구동할 수 있는 비공식 안드로이드 펌웨어이다. 현재 60개 이상의 안드로이드 스마트폰에서 펌웨어 업데이트가 가능하며,FLAC, 멀티터치, microSD 카드에서의 프로그램 설치 및 실행, 향상된 메모리 스왑(compcache), 거대 APN 리스트, 재부팅 메뉴, 블루투스 및 USB를 이용한 테더링 등 기존의 AOSP에서 지원하지 않는 기능등을 다수 탑재하고 있다. 모바일 OS 중에서는 최초로 BFS를 작업 스케줄러로 사용하는 운영 체제이기도 하며(이는 현재 안드로이드 공식 소스 트리에도 시범 반영되었다.^[1]) 경우에 따라서는 공식 안드로이드 펌웨어보다 높은 성능을 발휘하기도 한다. 2015년 1분기 현재 정식 배포 중인 CyanogenMod는 CM7과 CM9, CM10, CM10.1, CM10.2,cm11이 있고, 나이틀리로 배포 중인 Android 5.0.x 기반의 CM12과 그의 메니저 업데이트 버전인 안드로이드 5.1.x 기반에 cm12.1이 있다

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벌써 내일 어닝발표가 있네요. 회사의 바램과는 다르게 알루미늄가격과 100% 싱크로율을 보여주는 알코아라서 어닝도 좋지않고 그리스나 중국저성장으로 전망도 좋지 못할것 같습니다.

작년에 좋은 수익률을 돌려줘서 좋아하는 주식인데... 년초까지 꿈의 주식이었는데 방향을 획돌렸네요.언제가 될지 모르겠지만 또 살것 같네요. 중국시장이 바닥을 치고 올라올때와 알루미늄 가격을 잘 지켜봐야 할듯.

예상대로 최근에 알루미늄 가격이 더 많이 떨어졌고, 앞으로도 더 떨어질 확률이 높을것 같네요.

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Alcoa Inc. Kicks Off Earnings Season: 2 Trades for AA Stock

AA stock bears smell blood in the water, but are they too late to the game?

Alcoa Inc. (AA) will kick off the unofficial start to third-quarter earnings season after the close of trading on Wednesday. The aluminum giant has been pressured this year by a strong U.S. dollar and slowing demand, forcing the company to trim high cost operations, sell low value assets, and focus on lower-cost production.

Despite these moves, AA stock bears smell blood in the water, but are they too late to the game?

By the numbers, Wall Street is looking for fiscal second-quarter earnings of 23 cents per share from Alcoa — up 28% from year-ago levels.  Revenue is seen arriving down 1% at $5.8 billion. However, whispers are swirling that Alcoa will miss earnings targets, with EarningsWhisper.com reporting a whisper number of just 21 cents.

Bearish sentiment has begun to take hold in the analyst community for AA stock. The last several moves within the community have been downgrades, resulting in eight “hold” or worse ratings and 10 “buys,” according to data from Thomson/First Call.  Meanwhile, the 12-month price target currently rests at $16 per share.

Pessimism is also swelling among short sellers. Specifically, the number of AA shares sold short surged by 23% in the most recent reporting period. As a result, some 72.5 million shares of AA stock, or nearly 6% of the stock’s total float, are now sold short.

But, judging from recent options activity, there may be a lack of conviction from the short-selling crowd.  Typically, short sellers will buy short-term call options as a way to hedge their bets, especially ahead of events such as earnings reports.

Along these lines, AA stock’s July/August put/call open interest ratio has fallen to a reading of 0.41, with calls more than doubling puts among options set to expire within the next two months. Taking a closer look at just July options, the put/call open interest ratio falls even further, arriving at 0.38.

 Overall, weekly Jul 10 series implieds are pricing in a potential post-earnings move of about 5% for AA stock. This places the upper bound at $11.54, while the lower bound lies at $10.46.  Historically, implieds seem a bit on the low side, meaning that AA option prices may be low at the moment.

Technically speaking, AA stock is trading deep in short-term oversold territory. The stock is currently perched just above its 2014 lows, which currently correspond with potential support from AA’s 200-week moving average. Despite the overwhelming negativity levied against AA, there is a possibility of a surprise post-earnings rally.

2 Trades for AA Stock

Call Spread: Pessimism toward an underperforming stock is largely par for the course, and AA stock has earned much of its negative reputation on the Street.  However, the recent selloff has placed AA in oversold territory, hinting that the stock’s recent losses may be overdone.  As such, there is the possibility of a snap-back rally for AA following this week’s earnings report, especially if there are any positive nuggets to be gleaned.

As such, traders wanting to take a chance on an AA rally might want to consider a Jul $11/$12 bull call spread.  At last check, this spread was offered at 31 cents, or $31 per pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $11.31, while a maximum profit of 69 cents, or $69 per pair of contracts, is possible if AA stock closes at or above $12 when July options expire.

Straddle: Alternately, traders with a higher risk tolerance might want to take advantage of this high volatility situation and enter a straddle. A straddle involves the simultaneous purchase of an at-the-money call and an at-the-money put in an attempt to take advantage of a greater than expected move from the underlying stock.

By employing a straddle on AA stock, you are likely betting that the company is going to either handily beat earnings expectations, resulting in a reversal of sentiment and a rush in buying activity, or confirm the Street’s bearish bias, resulting in a flood of sell-on-the-news activity. At last check, the AA Jul 11 straddle was offered at 68 cents, or $68 per pair of contracts. Breakeven for this trade lies at $11.68 on the upside and at $10.32 on the downside.

http://investorplace.com/2015/07/alcoa-inc-kicks-off-earnings-season-2-trades-aa-stock/#.VZzD9DGJugs

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Aluminum Pricing

Aluminum has diverse applications in industry. It is an important input in the packaging, aerospace, automotive, construction, commercial transportation, power generation, capital goods, and consumer durables industries. Thus, demand for aluminum is broadly correlated with industrial growth. Economic weakness in Europe and slowing Chinese growth have contributed to the weakness in aluminum demand, and consequently prices, over the last few quarters. ^[1] China, the world’s largest consumer of aluminum, is expected to witness a slowdown in GDP growth to 6.8% and 6.3% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, from 7.4% in 2014. ^[2]

On the supply side, production capacity has not been reduced corresponding to the weakness in demand over the last few quarters. Persistently high aluminum inventory levels relative to demand have kept LME aluminum prices depressed. This inventory was built up partially as a result of aluminum being tied up in financing deals, which were made possible due to low interest rates. ^[3] Despite inventories being at a record highs, market forces failed to rationalize supply through the shutdown of smelting capacity. Though global aluminum majors like Alcoa and Rusal did make significant smelting capacity cuts, the same was not true of Chinese companies. This was primarily due to state intervention in the form of provisions of subsidies or renegotiated power contracts to smelters, which serve as a disincentive to cut production. China accounts for around half of the world’s aluminum production, and the expansion in production by Chinese producers has more than made up for capacity cuts by global majors. ^[4] This oversupply situation is expected to keep aluminum prices depressed.

As a result of the fall in LME prices, regional aluminum prices in China are trading below the costs of production of a majority of Chinese domestic smelters. ^[5] However, Chinese aluminum producers were boosted by a recent decision of the Chinese government to provide tax breaks and subsidized power to domestic aluminum smelters. ^[6] In addition, the Chinese government also reduced export taxes on Chinese exports of the metal earlier in the year. ^[7] A combination of these factors is likely to lead to an increase in Chinese production and exports, which could further worsen the gap between supply and demand, resulting in weak global aluminum prices. This is reflected in the trajectory of London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices so far this year.

LME aluminum prices averaged roughly $1,800 per ton over the course of the second quarter in 2014. These prices averaged close to $1,750 per ton in Q2 2015. ^[8]  Lower aluminum prices are likely to weigh on the company’s results, particularly those of the Primary Aluminum and Alumina business segments.

http://www.trefis.com/stock/aa/articles/303936/alcoa-q2-earnings-preview-productivity-improvements-to-offset-impact-of-weak-aluminum-pricing/2015-07-06

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Aluminum Bear Market Piles Pressure on World’s Biggest Smelters

Record Supply

The trend echoes a similar one in steel in the second half of last year, when Chinese exports of excess supplies sent prices tumbling 30 percent. The nation’s aluminum industry quadrupled in the past decade with smelters churning out record amounts of the metal used in everything from packaging to car bumpers.

Aluminum for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.7 percent on Tuesday to $1,666 a metric ton, entering a bear market. The metal price extended the decline to $1,631.50 on Wednesday. Prices may trade closer to $1,500 a ton by the end of the year, the lowest since 2009, amid record inventories worldwide, according to Colin Hamilton, London-based head of commodities research at Macquarie.

About 20 percent of smelters outside China are losing money at current prices, according to Standard Chartered Plc.

Supply Forecast

Global supplies will exceed demand by 800,000 tons this year, with the surplus tripling from 2014, according to Societe Generale SA. While global aluminum demand is poised to rise by the most among the six main industrial metals, Chinese production is already up 16 percent this year and expected to grow further, according to Macquarie.

Stockpiles of the metal are also easier to obtain after the London Metal Exchange took steps to cut lengthy wait times at its warehouse locations. The backlogs that stretched to almost two years had boosted surcharges added to the exchange benchmark to a record last year, helping producers’ profits.

Moscow-based Rusal, the world’s largest producer, forecasts that China will increase exports of partly processed aluminum by 20 percent, the company said June 25. It will decide whether to cut capacity in the third quarter. Shares of Rusal have dropped 40 percent in Hong Kong trading this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-07/aluminum-bear-market-piles-pressure-on-world-s-biggest-smelters

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Aluminum Glut Dents Alcoa’s Prospects

Alcoa shareholders should pay close attention to what happens in Beijing.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/aluminum-glut-dents-alcoas-prospects-1436287094

퀄컴 주가가 약세를 면치 못하고 있는데요. 이후 먹거리를 아직 못찾고 있는것으로 보이는데, IoT시장이 향후 5년간 엄청난게 크게 성장한다는 예상에 따라 모든 노력을 집중할것이라는 뉴스입니다. 향후 5년간 $5 trillion까지 성장한다고 하니 10-20%만 먹어도 충분할것 같습니다. IoT시장은 한 회사가 독점하기는 어려운 시장이지요.

Qualcomm Targets The Internet of Things Sector Full Force

Continued from page 1

Trefis Team , Contributor

Comment Now 

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/07/06/qualcomm-targets-the-internet-of-things-sector-full-force/

지난 글에서 2014년 year to year로 집계된 data를 정리한 적이 있는데요. 그 이후로 상황이 많이 바뀌었네요. LTE provider에서 Mediatek이 10%로 독보적 2위로 성장하고 삼성도 S6에 자체 모뎀을 넣음으로서 많이 성장했다고 합니다. 자세한 data는 회사 라이브러리가 업데잇이 안되서 확인이 안되네요.

2014 y2y - Mobile AP Processor 시장 점유율과 이익

trategy Analytics: MediaTek Captures Double-Digit Share in LTE Basebands in Q1 2015

Boston, MA - July 1, 2015 - The global cellular baseband processor market registered strong 27 percent year-over-year growth to reach $5.8 billion in Q1 2015, according to Strategy Analytics Handset Component Technologies service report, "Baseband Market Share Tracker Q1 2015: Samsung LSI Grabs Number Three LTE Spot ."

Click here for the report:  http://sa-link.cc/JI

·         Samsung LSI beat out Qualcomm's Snapdragon 810 in Samsung Mobile's Galaxy S6 and moved up to number three in LTE baseband shipments

·         The wait for the strong number two player in LTE basebands is over and MediaTek has now firmly established itself as the solid number two to Qualcomm

·         In the global 3G baseband market Spreadtrum overtook MediaTek to capture the number two spot

According to this research report from Strategy Analytics, Qualcomm, MediaTek, Spreadtrum,Samsung LSI and Marvell captured the top-five baseband revenue share spots in Q1 2015. Qualcomm maintained its baseband market leadership with 61 revenue share, followed by MediaTek with 18 percent revenue share and Spreadtrum with 7 percent revenue share.

한국에겐 대선후보에게 까지 각서까지 받더니, 그리스에는 30%정도 빛을 탐감해야한다는 건의하는 IMF. 이제라도 긴축만이 답이 아니라는 것을 인정했다고 상줘야 할까요?

한국은 IMF때에도 기업이 줄도산 하면서도 실업률이 3%를 안넘었나요? IMF도 깜짝 놀랐을듯. 

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[그리스 쇼크] 닮은듯 다른 3가지 이유

1. 한솥밥 - 그리스는 유로존 구성원, 유럽의 정신·문화적 고향
2. 채권단 - IMF·EU·獨 등 얽혀 있어 IMF가 한국과 협상 주도
3. IMF의 전략 변화 - 한국서 외환위기 사례 첫경험… "너무 가혹했다"는 비판 받아

저자세로 일관했던 한국과 달리 그리스 정부는 벼랑끝 전략을 구사하면서 채권단을 괴롭히고 있다. 유럽의 정신적·문화적 고향이라는 점까지 이용해 "그리스 없이 유럽 통합은 없다"며 부채 탕감을 요구하고 있다. 세계은행에서 근무했던 전광우 전 국민연금공단 이사장은 "채무국이 '배 째라'는 식으로 버틸 때까지 버틴 후, 부채를 최대한 탕감받는 것은 사실 아주 일반적인 전략"이라며 "금 모으기 캠페인까지 벌였던 한국은 매우 순진했던 편"이라고 말했다.

IMF는 한국에 강요했던 조건이 너무 가혹했다는 비판을 받고, 전략을 많이 수정했다. IMF 상임이사를 지낸 오종남 전 통계청장은 "IMF라는 의사가 '외환위기'란 병에 걸린 환자를 처음 보고, 무조건 가장 센 약을 먹인 셈"이라고 말했다. 권태신 한국경제연구원장은 "IMF가 구제금융 3개월 만에 처방이 과도했음을 인정했을 정도로 우리에 대한 구조조정은 지나쳤다"며 "이후 IMF는 구제금융 프로그램을 최대한 각국 경제상황에 맞추는 쪽으로 전략을 수정해 나갔다"고 말했다.