경제이야기/Stock2015. 3. 21. 09:17

작년에 AA에서 쉽게 큰 수익을 봤었는데 요즘 속절없이 무너져서 아주 군침을 돌리며 바라보고 있습니다.

가장큰문제는 aluminum 가격이 고가대비 30%이상 급락한 영향이 큰것 같습니다.

To be updated

  • 알루미늄 가격이 떨어진 이유와 전망
  • AA의 Aluminum 매출/순이익 대비 비율
  • Fundamental analysis
  • 회사예상가치
  • 경쟁자
  • 최근 발표된 인수합병관련 영향
  • 내부자 거래동향

 

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Today’s Trading

Previous close12.96
Today’s open13.02
Day’s range12.90 - 13.09
Volume38,762,284
Average volume (3 months)21,945,226
Market cap$15.9B
Dividend yield0.93%
Data as of 4:00pm ET, 03/20/2015

Growth & Valuation

Earnings growth (last year)--
Earnings growth (this year)+20.88%
Earnings growth (next 5 years)+10.00%
Revenue growth (last year)+3.57%
P/E ratio57.1
Price/Sales0.77
Price/Book1.29

Competitors

 Today’s
change
Today’s
% change
AAPRBAlcoa Inc+0.13+0.30%
AAPRAlcoa Inc0.000.00%
Data as of 4:02pm ET, 03/20/2015

Financials

Next reporting dateApril 9, 2015
EPS forecast (this quarter)$0.25
Annual revenue (last year)$23.9B
Annual profit (last year)$268.0M
Net profit margin1.12%

Profile

Sector
Non-Energy Minerals
Industry
Aluminum
Chairman &
Chief Executive Officer
Klaus-Christian Kleinfeld
Chief Financial Officer &
Executive Vice President
William F. Oplinger
Corporate headquarters
New York, New York





















































Forecasts


-------------------------------

Data provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.

Valuation Measures 
Market Cap (intraday)5:15.85B
Enterprise Value (Mar 21, 2015)3:22.88B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):61.76
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2016)1:9.90
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1:1.05
Price/Sales (ttm):0.66
Price/Book (mrq):1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3:0.96
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6:6.64

Financial Highlights 
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends:Dec 31
Most Recent Quarter (mrq):Dec 31, 2014
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm):1.12%
Operating Margin (ttm):9.53%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm):3.89%
Return on Equity (ttm):1.25%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm):23.91B
Revenue Per Share (ttm):20.57
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy):14.20%
Gross Profit (ttm):4.77B
EBITDA (ttm)6:3.45B
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm):247.00M
Diluted EPS (ttm):0.21
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):N/A
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq):1.88B
Total Cash Per Share (mrq):1.54
Total Debt (mrq):8.85B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq):59.84
Current Ratio (mrq):1.49
Book Value Per Share (mrq):10.07
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm):1.67B
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm):369.12M

Trading Information 
Stock Price History
Beta:0.73
52-Week Change3:7.99%
S&P500 52-Week Change3:13.49%
52-Week High (Nov 21, 2014)3:17.75
52-Week Low (Mar 26, 2014)3:11.85
50-Day Moving Average3:14.96
200-Day Moving Average3:15.82

-------------------------------

 

Trefis Analysts estimate a price of $15.98 for Alcoa's stock, about 23% higher than the current market price. * Engineered Products constitute 38% of the Trefis price estimate for Alcoa's stock. * Primary Metals constitute 27% of the Trefis price estimate for Alcoa's stock. * Alumina constitutes 19% of the Trefis price estimate for Alcoa's stock

 

Analyst Research

More »

No Credit Suisse report available. 

  Thomson Reuters

Last Reported 3/20/15

  S&P Capital IQ

Last Reported 3/14/15

  SmartConsensus Report

Last Reported 03/20/2015

 

Technical Research 

  Market Edge Second Opinion

Last Reported 3/13/15

Technical Analysis »

 

Shareholder Equity

Shares Outstanding 

1.2 B 

Institutional Ownership 

63.47% 

Number of Floating Shares 

1.2 B 

Short Interest as % of Float 

2.50% 

Financial Strength (MRQ)

Quick Ratio 

0.94x 

     

Current Ratio 

1.49x 

     

Debt/Equity 

0.72x 

     

Debt/Assets 

0.24x 

     

AA's debt to equity ratio indicates that it has been more aggressive with using debt to finance growth than 63% of its peers in the Metal Mining industry. The resultant effect on earnings would be more volatile than related companies.

Valuation (MRQ)

Price/Earnings (TTM) 

63.75x 

     

Price/Sales (TTM) 

0.66x 

     

Price/Book 

1.29x 

     

Price/Cash Flow 

9.18x 

     

AA's P/E Ratio is greater than 91% of other companies in the Metal Mining industry. This typically means that investors are willing to pay more for its level of earnings relative to future growth.

Profitability (TTM)

Gross Margin 

19.99% 

     

Operating Margin 

4.30% 

     

EBITDA Margin 

14.93% 

     

Net Profit Margin 

0.74% 

     

AA's Gross Margin is comparable to other companies in the Metal Mining industry, which means it has relatively the same amount of cash to spend on business operations as its peers. As indicated by the Operating Margin, AA controls its costs and expenses better than 69% of its peers.

Management Effectiveness (TTM)

Return on Assets

0.48% 

     

Return on Equity 

2.17% 

     

Return on Inves. Capital 

0.63% 

     

The Return on Equity for AA shows that it is able to reinvest its earnings more efficiently than 75% of its competitors in the Metal Mining industry. Typically, companies that have higher return on equity values are more attractive to investors.

Growth Rate (TTM)

Earnings Per Share 

109.5 

     

Sales 

3.8 

     

Dividend (MRQ) 

0.0 

     

AA's EPS Growth Rate is greater than 92% of its peers in the Metal Mining industry.

Dividend (TTM)

Dividend Yield 

0.93% 

     

Payout Ratio 

56.68% 

     

Annual Dividend 

0.12 

     

AA's dividend yield is less than 94% of other companies in the Metal Mining industry. As indicated by the payout ratio, AA's earnings support the dividend payouts as well as others in the group.

Operating Ratios (TTM)

Asset Turnover 

0.65% 

     

Inventory Turnover 

6.61% 

     

Receivables Turnover 

18.29% 

     

Effective Tax Rate 

64.39% 

     

------------------------------------

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by 쁘레드
경제이야기2015. 3. 20. 11:31

악덕기업이 망하는것이야 할수없지만 한국 기업은 자기 임직원을 너무 부려먹고 한국국민에게 더 비싸게 받는듯 존경하기 어려운 기업들이 많은데. 시장에 인력은 넘쳐나고 갑의 위치에서 폭력은 더 심해질듯. 직장구하기도 어려운 판에 임금을 상승 압력은 상당히 약할듯.

결국 지금까지 국민들의 도움으로 잘먹고 잘 살던 얘들이 조금 어려워졌다고 나부터 살자로 나가는듯. 오히려 지금까지 고마웠으니 이번에는 내가 도울차례라고 임금을 올리고 고용을 늘려도 시원찮을판에.

  • 삼성전자 임금동결, 구조조정, 중복 조직 통폐합,
  • 삼성물산 300명 해고,
  • 현대 중공업 30% 구조조정
  • SKT 명퇴신청받는중
  • KT명퇴신청받는중
  • 팬택망하고
  • 동양그룹
  • 건설사들 실적하향후 인력줄이기
  • 은행 저금리에 구조조정
  • 두산 구조조정
  • 대한전선, 성동조선해양, SPP조선, STX 구조조정
  • Etc etc

앞으로 정직원 중직원 계약직 등으로 계약직들이 세분화되면 노동시장이 더 유연해지겠지만 고용자들의 폭력이 더 심화될것이 뻔함.

Posted by 쁘레드
자동차이야기2015. 3. 20. 08:07

일본차들이 엔저로 공격적으로 가격을 낮추고 있다고 한것에 이어, 현대도 질수 없겠지요. 샌디에고는 대도시가 아니라 가격이 이 평균이상이라고 보면 될겁니다. 1시간만 LA쪽으로 올라가도 down pay가 반으로도 줄수 있가나, 살때 가격을 더 깍을수 있다는 것을 염두해둬야겠지요.

새차 3년이면 오일말고는 갈어줄게 거의 없으니 maintenance비용이 겁나거나 차 관리하기 어려운 분들에게는 리스는 좋은 딜이죠. 리스가 회사가 남는게 많아요. 리스비용을 받고 리스로 돌려받아 팔아서 남겨먹을수 있고.

소나타(Sonata)를 기준으로 $139에 36개월 deal이 있네요. $2000 down하고요. 3년 총비용이 $7040 + TAX쬐금 정도 되네요. 상당히 좋은데요. 캠리보다 더 공격적이군요. LA에서 구하면 3년에 $6000대에서 구할수 있을것 같네요.

놀라운건 제네시스,

$299 x36 + 2000 = $12764 + tax쬐금으로 리스 3년 총 비용으로 상당히 매력적이네요. 물론 제 형편엔 3년에 만불넘어가면 어려고 10년에 만불이 좋은데 ㅋㅋㅋ.

Posted by 쁘레드