회사를 분석할때 Trefis(트레피스)라는 그림을 자주 참고하고 있습니다. ETrade가 인수했던지 투자해서 ETrade에서는 공짜로 볼수 있습니다.

그동안 쉽게 지나쳤던 그림을 하나 찾았네요. Ford의 Division별 주가기여도가 되겠네요. 무려 53.6%가 자동차 론(loan)과 리스(lease)가 기여한다고 합니다. 트럭만들어 파는 분야는 26%, 자동차는 고작. 12.7%

한마디로 포드의 bread and butter는 할부금융입니다. 자동차 회사가 아니라 금융회사라도 해도 좋을것 같습니다. 자동차는 금융을 위한 미끼이고 실제로 돈버는 부서는 캐피탈이고.

트럭이 일반자동차 보다 2배더 더 큰 이익에 기여하고 있고, 상대적으로 고가일테니 자동차 할부나 리스에도 많이 기여할것이라고 생각됩니다. 금융위기전 비율이 없어서 추측일 뿐이지만 이것은 0%에 가까운 미국 이자율이 큰 기여했다고 생각이 되고요, 앞으로 이자율이 오르게 되면 이 구조는 변화가 불가피할것이라고 생각됩니다.

은행은 이자가 오르면 예대마진을 더 늘릴수 있지만 자동차는 이자율이 오르면 사람들이 못사겠지요. 2008년 경제위기 이후에 미국 자동차들은 60개월에서 80개월까지 무이자나 1%대 이자로 엄청나게 팔았습니다. 계속 0%에 가까운 이자율을 주려면 회사가 가져가는 이익이 적어질수 밖에요.

그래서 자동차 사러가서 현금으로 다 내겠다고 하면 거품물고 왜 현금을 이런데 낭비(?)하냐며 훈계를 길게 들어야하는군요. 심지어 할부금융하면 $1000씩 깍아주기도 합니다. 자동차 할부하면 credit도 쉽게 올라간다고 꼬시고요. ㅋㅋㅋ 누구를 바보로 아나~

미국은 제조업이 없고 다 금융인데 심지어 자동차회사마져도 금융으로 먹고사는줄 몰랐습니다. 참 특이한 세상이네요.

---------------

Trefis : last update Oct 14 2015

---------------

---------------

폭시바겐 자동차 사태로 폭스바겐 자동차 주가가 떨어지는것은 물론 관련 자동차 산업 전체가 내려가고 있고, 연관된 부품업체도 추락하고 있습니다.

플래티넘 가격이 폭락한다고 해서 읽어보니 디젤 엔진에 플레티넘이 많이 들어간다고 하네요. 헐~

Update: 6개월간 주가가 반토막 됐네요. 아래 그림은 폭스바겐 몇달동안 주가 그래프와 토요타와 비교

전체 자동차 섹터가 이번 사태로 떨어지고 있습니다. 밥맛떨어졌으니 다들 밥먹고 싶은 생각이 없는거지요.

예전에 삼성 갤럭시폰이 성능을 조작하려고 벤치마크 프로그램이 돌때는 클락을 올려는 치팅을 하다가 걸렸지만 신뢰성은 또 타격입었지만 주가가 반토막 된다든지 큰 별일없었지요. 사실 모든 업체들이 그런 보이지 않는 치팅에 대해서 연구를 하는데 폭스바겐은 이번 치팅이 소비자를 우롱한것과 환경에 치명타를 줬다는 것, 관련법규를 어겼다는 것 때문에 리콜/벌금 비용이 상상을 초월할듯. 그래서 50%주가하락에도 짧은 시간에 회복되기가 싶지 않을것 같네요.

---------

LONDON—The price of platinum, widely used in diesel car engines, could fall below $900 a troy ounce for the first time since the financial crisis in the wake of the emissions scandal at VolkswagenAG, according to some metals investors and analysts.

Spot platinum fell heavily on Tuesday and hit a near seven-year low on Wednesday at $929.08 a troy ounce, before recovering slightly to $932.25, as some questioned whether the affair would have a lasting effect on demand for diesel cars.

Investors are worried that car buyers will switch from diesel engines to gasoline or electric cars, hitting demand for platinum, said David Govett, head of precious metals trading at Marex Spectron. Gasoline engines typically don’t use platinum.

퀄컴이 2014년 10월에 발표했던 CSR인수를 마무리 지었습니다. $2.4B에 2100명, 20개 사이트를 인수하는 딜이었는데 상당히 큰 편이지요.

결국 IOT/IOE, Automotive시장을 겨냥한 수인데. 그때 인수를 발표한것은 잘한것인데 이제야 마무리 된것에는 좀 문제가 있네요. 이쪽 시장은 변화가 무쌍한데 결국 회사도 내리막길이고 빨리 대응도 못하고 문제가 좀 있네요. 멀리 본 수는 잘한것 같고요.

---------------------

http://www.csr.com/about

---------------------

---------------------

Here's what's next for Qualcomm as it completes its $2.4 billion CSR buy

Qualcomm must adapt its business model to sell chips for the internet of things. Here’s how it will change.

Qualcomm’s $2.4 billion purchase of fellow chip company CSR closed Thursday, and while it wasn’t the biggest chip deal the industry has seen since Qualcomm said it would purchase the UK firm in October last year, this is a deal that has high stakes for Qualcomm—a company that is struggling to remake itself completely as its core cellular radio business becomes an ever smaller portion of its portfolio and activist investors pressure management.

Back in October, when Qualcomm  QCOM -0.19%  said it would purchase CSR, the company that was an initial champion of the now-popular Bluetooth technology found inside headsets, speakers and phones, it was seen as an obvious technology bolt-on acquisition. The addition of CSR would pair with Qualcomm’s interest in the internet of things and its $3.1 billion purchase of Wi-Fi chipmaker Atheros back in 2011. That’s still true today, but since the deal has been announced Jana Capital has taken a significant stake in Qualcomm and pressured the company to make changes. Last month it said it planned to lay off 15% of its workforce and said it would only focus on five businesses: mobile phones, the internet of things, data centers, small cells, and automotive.

Qualcomm also has the unenviable task of becoming a chip firm that has to adapt from having a relatively small and captive customer base to one serving a huge number of customers across many verticals. It also doesn’t have a radio technology or a limited number of competitors to lock customers in when it’s selling its Wi-Fi products, and soon its Bluetooth chips. In interviews with Fortune, Qualcomm and CSR executives explained how this deal will help Qualcomm handle some of these challenges both technically and strategically.

With CSR Qualcomm isn’t simply buying a radio chip firm as it did with Atheros. It’s also buying a company that makes an entire package of chips and software that fits into cars, headsets, and Bluetooth speakers, which dovetails nicely with Qualcomm’s own design philosophy of squeezing the brains of a smartphone into the same package with the radios and the graphics core. This integrated single-package approach lowers the cost of materials, saves on space, and tends to save on battery life. That’s essential for cell phones and the chips powering your Bluetooth headset.

CSR is also the keeper of some fancy software that turns Bluetooth radios, which are usually point-to-point radios, into a mesh network designed for the smart home or office. This CSRMesh technology is part of several big lighting products expected out in the fall, and parts of it will undoubtedly make it into the next generation of the Bluetooth standard.

Anthony Murray, formerly a senior vice president with CSR and now the senior vice president and general manager of IoE (Internet of Everything) at Qualcomm, explained that not only could we see the CSRMesh technology in Bluetooth, but one day we may even see Qualcomm supporting the Thread protocol created by Samsung, Nest and other big names in home automation on top of the Bluetooth radio.

“So far the Thread protocol has chosen to support one radio [ZigBee], but there are many of radios out there that it could support and there are advantages in using the Bluetooth radio in some use cases,” Murray said. “We can’t not support Thread given the strength of the supporters behind it.”

Qualcomm will also get a few esoteric technology holdings, such as a document imaging software business that may eventually be spun out, but for the most part CSR’s silicon and software will boost Qualcomm’s internet of things and automotive businesses easily. It also helps bring Qualcomm another set of managers who are used to selling to a wide range of customers and a more traditional customer base. Qualcomm historically sold radios based on technology it developed, which meant that once it convinced a network operator, such as Verizon, to buy into a technology, any company that wanted to sell a handset to that network operator had to license that radio technology from Qualcomm.

In many cases they bought the radio from Qualcomm too. As Qualcomm grew it developed the brains behind smartphones as well and integrated that tech with radios, which meant its customers were still the handset makers. Qualcomm grew along with the smartphone market, providing some of the most powerful application processors inside handsets. For the most part, it was the Intel of smartphones, with the exception of the iPhone once Apple decided to build its own chip.

However, competition from China’s Mediatek was looming, and Qualcomm stumbled last year with one of its designs. It lost Samsung, which is still affecting its earnings. With these challenges in mind, diversifying its customer base isn’t a bad idea. Raj Talluri, senior vice president of product management, said Qualcomm brought in $1 billion from the internet of things in 2014 and expects to bring in 1.6 billion in 2015.

He said much of that comes from adding connectivity to existing devices, especially as a way to future proof them even if the manufacturer isn’t sure how they want to use it. “China is the most advanced and we see a lot of white goods with connectivity,” he said. “There are so many rice cookers that are shipping with connectivity in them.”

As for structuring Qualcomm to sell chips for thousands of different devices, from rice cookers to drones, as opposed to making a few different lines of chips for mobile phones, Talluri is optimistic that the San Diego-based company will rise to the challenge.

“That’s how most semiconductor companies are,” he said. “It’s a model that we know how to set up and CSR is one such company. The idea is you have multiple people each responsible for a segment and pick the technologies that they need … and you build the distribution channels and let the machine start rolling.”

He admits it may not be as “exciting” as winning or losing a chip inside a handset, but it is a far more stable business and as a veteran of Texas Instruments he’s been there before. First with Atheros and now with CSR, Qualcomm is adapting to what may be a far less exciting path, but one that could provide greater diversity and stability.